SIO: NINETEEN - Post-Tropical

[senorpepr]

A slight increase to T1.5 from yesterday's T1.0. 94S continues to slowly organize in the Banda Sea.




ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/051800Z-061800ZMAY2012//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.0S
126.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.5S 126.2E, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH DEEP BANDING OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
051259Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS THE DEEP BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC
FROM THE WEST WITH MUCH WEAKER AND FRAGMENTED BANDS FEEDING IN FROM
THE EAST. A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION IN THE AREA INDICATES 1006 MB
AND 25 KNOTS. THE 051200Z PGTW UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A POINT
SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES TO THE EAST OF THE
LLCC. THIS IS PROVIDING FOR GOOD OUTFLOW IN BOTH THE EQUATORWARD
AND POLEWARD DIRECTIONS AND KEEPING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LIGHT (05-
10 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE ABOVE 30
DEGREES CELSIUS, HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES INTENSITY DEVELOPMENT TO REACH
WARNING CRITERIA (35 KNOTS) WITHIN THE 36-48 HOUR TIMEFRAME.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTS,
THAT TIMEFRAME MAY BECOME ACCELERATED AS THE NEXT MODEL RUNS COME
IN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN


TXXS24 KNES 060611
TCSSIO

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94S)

B. 06/0532Z

C. 5.2S

D. 126.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION HAS WARMED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. LLC IS
SHEARED LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM DG. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[senorpepr]

Both organizations mentioning an exposed LLCC with increased convection. T1.5. KNES suggests lowered, but held due to overnight constraints.


498
TPXS10 PGTW 061215

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94S (N OF TIMOR)

B. 06/1132Z

C. 5.4S

D. 127.1E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 17A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.20 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/0747Z 5.9S 126.2E SSMI


LANZETTA



836
TXXS24 KNES 061218
TCSSIO

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94S)

B. 06/1132Z

C. 5.3S

D. 127.3E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...LLCC IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO N OF DEEPEST CONVECTION,
HOWEVER CONVECTION MAY BE DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE CENTER AGAIN. SHEAR
PATTERN LT 1.25 DEG FROM DG YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET IS LT 1.0. PT =
1.0. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS NOT ALLOWING T NUMBERS TO BE LOWERED AT
NIGHT DURING THE FIRST 48 HRS OF DEVELOPMENT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GUILLOT

[senorpepr]

WTXS21 PGTW 061730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 170 NM RADIUS OF 5.4S 127.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061700Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.4S 127.1E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.5S
126.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4S 127.1E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS HAS SHOWN THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TRANSITION FROM BEING FULLY-EXPOSED INTO
MORE RECENT CENTRAL CLOUD COVER FROM BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 061239Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES 30 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM FROM THE
LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG (30-40 KNOT) SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM SEVERAL
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE LLCC CAN BE SEEN FEEDING INTO THE CIRCULATION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC TO BE APPROXIMATELY 13
DEGREES WEST OF A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE AND 7 DEGREES
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. IT SEEMS THAT THE LLCC
HAS INCREASED ITS DISTANCE FROM THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), WHICH HAS BEEN PROVIDED BY THE POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE TO
THE WEST, OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THUS, VWS HAS SLIGHTLY RELAXED
ALLOWING FOR THE BANDING TO REFORM OVER THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS SUBDUED AND MOSTLY STRAIGHT-LINE TO THE WEST. EARLY MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERALLY POLEWARD TRACK IN A SOUTHWESTWARDS
DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25-30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
DUE TO THE RECENT DECREASE IN VWS, GENERAL TRACK MOTION INTO
CONTINUED WEAK VWS, AND CONSOLIDATION OF BANDING, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
071730Z.//

[senorpepr]

Held at T2.0 due to constraints...


049
TPXS10 PGTW 061813

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94S (N OF TIMOR)

B. 06/1732Z

C. 5.6S

D. 127.5E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .50 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET
AND PT AGREE. FT OF 2.0, BASED ON CONSTRAINTS. CONVECTION
MEASURED USING WRAP TECHNIQUE HAS ONLY BEEN PRESENT FOR ABOUT 2-
3HRS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HUME

[senorpepr]

Interesting how KNES mentions that 7/10th banding suggests a DT of T3.5. MET and PT yield T2.5, but they held at T2.0 for Dvorak constraints.


980
TXXS24 KNES 061831
TCSSIO

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94S)

B. 06/1801Z

C. 5.8S

D. 127.1E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...94S HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST SIX HRS. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A LLCC MAY BE FORMING BENEATH THE DEEP
CONVECTION. 7/10 W BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET = 2.5. PT = 2.5. FT
IS BASED ON TRADITIONAL DVORAK CONSTRAINTS LIMITING CHANGE IN FT BY 0.5
IN 6 HRS FOR WEAKER SYSTEMS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GUILLOT

[senorpepr]

[HURAKAN]

Well-defined LLC, now TC 19S according to NRL

[Reesie]

The JTWC have now issued their first advisory on 19S

If 19S is deemed a tropical cyclone it will be named Bakung by TCWC Jakarta who are located here: http://meteo.bmkg.go.id/siklon.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (NINETEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 6.2S 127.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.2S 127.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 6.8S 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 7.6S 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 8.6S 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 9.6S 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 11.1S 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 11.9S 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.3S 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 6.4S 127.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST
QUADRANTS OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 070121Z AMSU
IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC AS FRICTIONAL DRAG FROM VARIOUS ISLANDS
SEEMS TO BE CURRENTLY HINDERING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. A 061538Z OSCAT PASS SHOWED 35-40 KNOT WINDS ENTERING
THE LLCC FROM THE WEST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW
FIX AND THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35-45
KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC TO BE APPROXIMATELY 13 DEGREES WEST OF A POINT
SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE AND 7 DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS PROVIDING FOR GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH 10-15 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS SUBDUED AND MOSTLY STRAIGHT-LINE TO THE WEST. TC 19S
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TOP END OF AUSTRALIA.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO MAKE A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN WITHIN THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS AND SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY BEFORE INTERACTING WITH EAST
TIMOR. THIS LAND INTERACTION SHOULD PLATEAU INTENSIFICATION UNTIL
THE LLCC MAKES ITS WAY FURTHER SOUTH OVER OPEN WATERS BY TAU 48.
DURING THIS TIME ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN SOUTH OF
SUMATRA WILL PROVIDE THE STEERING INFLUENCE VIA ITS NORTHERN
PERIPHERY AND CONTINUE TO STEER TC 19S ON A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK. A SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION IS FORECASTED TO OCCUR DUE TO
FAVORABLE WARM OCEAN WATERS AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO THREE MAIN GROUPINGS. THE NOGAPS IS THE
RIGHT MOST OUTLIER, THE GFDN AND WBAR RESIDE CLOSER TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS, AND THE GFS IS THE LEFT MOST OUTLIER. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS INLINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS UP TO TAU 36. DURING
TAUS 48-120 THE FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO
FAVOR THE GROUPING OF THE GFDN AND GFS DURING THIS TIME. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071500Z AND 080300Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 061721Z MAY 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 061730).//
NNNN

[francis327]

Information by TCWC

Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics
Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC)

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Southern Indonesia area
Issued Monday, 7th May 2012, Time 09.00 Western Indonesia Time

Current Tropical Cyclone in the Southern Indonesia area:
None.
Tropical cyclone development possibility:
Suspect area with minimum pressure 1000 mb is observed in Banda Sea near 7.0S 128.3E, about 368 km South of Ambon.
Possibility to develop into tropical cyclone:
Tuessday (tomorrow) : large possibility
Wednesday (tomorrow +1): large possibility
Thursday (tomorrow +2) : medium possibility

Note:
Small possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is less than 10%.
Medium possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is about 20%-40%.
Large possibility means possibility for the suspect area to develop into tropical cyclone is more than 50%.

Southern Indonesia area is area within equator to 11 S and 90 to 141 E.

[P.K.]

THIS WARNING IS PROVIDED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
AND ISSUED FOR THE CIRCULAR AREA OF METAREA XI (POR) BY JMA

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

OCEAN GALE AND STORM WARNING

OCEAN GALE AND STORM WARNING FOR AREA 0 - 10 S, 90 - 141 E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 07:11 UTC 07 May 2012

SITUATION
At 00:00 UTC Tropical Depression 1000 hPa was within 65 nautical miles of 7.0 S 128.3 E

This tropical depression may develop into a Tropical Cyclone in the next 12-24 hours.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 25 knots expected to increase to 30 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

12:00 UTC 07 May: Within 55 nautical miles of 7.4 S 128.3 E
Central pressure 999 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 30 knots near centre.
00:00 UTC 08 May: Within 105 nautical miles of 7.9 S 127.9 E
Central pressure 999 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 30 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 13:00 UTC 07 May 2012.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA

[P.K.]

Appears this is numbered 20U also.

[francis327]

IDJ21030
Climatology Meteorology and Geophysics Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING Issued by JAKARTA CENTRE
At: 15:46 PM 07/05/2012

Tropical Depression

Conditions on 07/05/2012 at 13:00 pm:
Position: 7.2LS, 129.2BT (about 410 miles south southeast of Ambon)
Speed
Maximum winds: 30 knots (55 km / h)

Predicted 24-hour, on 08/05/2012 at 13:00 pm:
Position: 8.5LS, 128.6BT (about 530 miles south of Ambon)
Speed
Maximum winds: 30 knots (55 km / h)

Predicted 48-hour, on 09/05/2012 at 13:00 pm:
Position: 9.9LS, 126.2BT
Speed
Maximum winds: 30 knots (55 km / h)

Predicted 72-hour, on 10/05/2012 at 13:00 pm:
Position: 11.2LS, 123.8BT
Speed
Maximum winds: 30 knots (55 km / h)

IMPACT ON THE WEATHER IN INDONESIA:
Seeds of this tropical cyclone rainfall resulted in moderate - heavy in the area of ​​East Nusa Tenggara and the surrounding seas. Light rain - is likely to occur in Southeast Sulawesi, Nusa Tenggara Eastern, Southeast Maluku and surrounding areas.
Wave height over 3 meters in the waters of the Banda Sea and Timor.

[HURAKAN]

struggling to produce convection

[Typhoon Hunter]

Appears to have gone poof quite quickly!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Agreed wind shear really tore this apart today, so much of it and this system could not get going. Indonesia and the BOM never picked up on it either. Another short lived storm.

[HURAKAN]

making a nice comeback!

[P.K.]

THIS WARNING IS PROVIDED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
AND ISSUED FOR THE CIRCULAR AREA OF METAREA XI (POR) BY JMA

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

OCEAN GALE AND STORM WARNING

OCEAN GALE AND STORM WARNING FOR AREA 0 - 10 S, 90 - 125 E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 19:41 UTC 08 May 2012

SITUATION
At 18:00 UTC Low 1002 hPa was within 65 nautical miles of 9.0 S 129.0 E moving southeast at 7 knots.

This tropical depression may develop into a Tropical Cyclone in the next 12-24 hours.


FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 25 knots expected to increase to 30 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

06:00 UTC 09 May: Within 90 nautical miles of 9.1 S 128.0 E
Central pressure 1001 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 30 knots near centre.
18:00 UTC 09 May: Within 120 nautical miles of 9.2 S 127.0 E
Central pressure 1001 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 30 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 01:00 UTC 09 May 2012.


Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 082030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6S 129.6E TO 11.6S 126.0E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 081732Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 128.9E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 19S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 129.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 128.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS BANDING CONVECTION PERSISTING
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 081540Z OSCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 25
KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WITH STRONGER WINDS (30 KNOTS)
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC
REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW TO MODERATE
LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10 TO 15 KNOTS) ENHANCING
POLEWARD VENTILATION. AS THE LLCC APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS,
DECREASING VWS AND INCREASING VENTILATION WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE
REMNANTS OF TC 19S TO REGENERATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS, BASED ON AN
IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IN THE ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON
THE DEEP BANDING CONVECTION PERSISTING, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092030Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

EGC:2:1:24:09S129E900:11:00
THIS WARNING IS PROVIDED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
AND ISSUED FOR THE CIRCULAR AREA OF METAREA XI (POR) BY JMA

INDONESIAN AGENCY FOR METEOROLOGY CLIMATOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta

SECURITE

OCEAN GALE AND STORM WARNING

OCEAN GALE AND STORM WARNING FOR AREA 0 - 10 S, 90 - 125 E
Issued by JAKARTA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
At: 03:24 UTC 09 May 2012

SITUATION
At 00:00 UTC Low 1000 hPa was within 65 nautical miles of 8.9 S 128.7 E moving west northwest at 3 knots.

This tropical depression may develop into a Tropical Cyclone in the next 24 hours.


FORECAST
Clockwise winds reaching 30 knots expected to increase to 35 knots in the next 24 hours.
High seas may exceed Rough to Very Rough scale and rising swell.

12:00 UTC 09 May: Within 95 nautical miles of 8.4 S 126.9 E
Central pressure 1000 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 30 knots near centre.
00:00 UTC 10 May: Within 125 nautical miles of 8.6 S 125.1 E
Central pressure 998 hPa.
Wind speed reaching 35 knots near centre.

REMARKS
Ships please transmit 3-hourly weather reports.
Next warning will be issued by 07:00 UTC 09 May 2012.


Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre JAKARTA