EPAC: ALETTA - Post Tropical

[CrazyC83]

Well, last year storms that were expected to be duds became major hurricanes...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 PM PDT MON MAY 14 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED AS IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER IS NOW FARTHER EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB ARE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING
UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY. THERE IS MODEST
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. BASED
ON THE MODEL PREDICTIONS...ALETTA HAS ONLY ABOUT 24 HOURS WITHIN
WHICH TO INTENSIFY FURTHER BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
BEGINS TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STORM. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE...AND TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LGEM INDICATES DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD....AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM
COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER THAN THAT.

BASED ON THE LATEST CENTER FIXES...INCLUDING ONE FROM A RECENT SSMIS
OVERPASS...ALETTA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER CLIP OR
280/10. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS PREDICTIONS...AND IS NOT FAR FROM THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 10.5N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 10.8N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 11.1N 112.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 11.4N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 11.7N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 12.0N 119.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 12.5N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Yellow Evan]

Looking okay tonight.

[beoumont]

Arthur Pike, noted NHC researcher who concentrated on the EPAC, professed a general correlation: The earlier the first named storm in the EPAC, the fewer named storms there will be in the Atlantic basin that year.

Arthur was also one of the first hurricane chasers. He went to the Florida Keys to experience Hurricane Donna in 1960. He went to sleep at a motel, and woke up floating on his mattress just several feet from the ceiling. He rarely talked about it; and I don't think he ever chased again.

http://www.nwas.org/committees/ed_comm/application/Pike.php

[Cyclenall]

Its great to see Aletta again, after 6 years which was my first serious TC that I tracked and followed on S2K back in May 2006. Aletta seems to pop up often in May.

I tried to find an index of all the May tropical cyclones in the eastern Pacific basin but couldn't find one.

http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

Search by Ocean Basin, then refine by timeframe.

Eastern North Pacific cyclones* forming in May in the available EPac database:

1951 unnamed TS
1952 unnamed TS
1953 TS Alice*
1956 unnamed hurricane (cat 1)
1956 unnamed TS
1970 Hurricane Adele (1)
1971 Hurricane Agatha (2)
1974 TS Aletta
1977 TS Ava
1977 TD
1978 Hurricane Aletta (1)
1979 Hurricane Andres (2)
1979 TD
1981 TS Adrian
1982 TS Aletta
1982 TD
1983 Major Hurricane Adolph (3)
1984 TS Alma
1984 Hurricane Boris (1)
1986 Hurricane Agatha (1)
1989 TS Adolph
1990 Hurricane Alma (1)
1991 TS Andres
1995 TD
1996 TD
1996 unnamed TS
2000 Hurricane Aletta (2)
2001 Major Hurricane Adolph (4)
2002 Major Hurricane Alma (3)
2003 TS Andres
2004 TS Agatha
2005 Hurricane Adrian (1)
2006 TS Aletta
2007 TS Alvin
2007 TS Barbara
2008 TS Alma
2010 TS Agatha

*Any cyclone which passed through what is defined in the CSC system as being in the EPAC. 1953's Alice was an Atlantic system.

Very nice, didn't know about that site but now know. Thanks.

Based on that database, this is the first TS before the official start of the season (in EDT at least...not sure if UTC time counts here but lets just use tropical cyclone formation) since 1996 and first named storm since 1990...long time ago. My main interest is on how active this May will be in the Epac so the stat that 2012 could try at is most number of TC's in the month of May for the Epac which would be over 2 as no season on record had 3 TC's or more.

Well, it is that time of year again. Looking at CIMSS, not much to go by with this newly formed system. RI is not likely (somewhere in the 5% range), though I can see a jump in wind speeds of 20 to 25 knots in the next 24 hours. That'll put the wind speed at 60 to 65 mph by 8 pm EDT tomorrow...or 50 to 55 knots.

That's my guess! This is subject to change as more images come in.

If only, it would be funny if this was one of those times that it became a hurricane despite an original forecast of 35 knots max, now creeping higher.

Arthur Pike, noted NHC researcher who concentrated on the EPAC, professed a general correlation: The earlier the first named storm in the EPAC, the fewer named storms there will be in the Atlantic basin that year.

Never heard of that before, very interesting. While that might mean fewer named storms, it doesn't say anything about fewer major hurricanes. Its a quirk that will be tested this year I assume.

Arthur was also one of the first hurricane chasers. He went to the Florida Keys to experience Hurricane Donna in 1960. He went to sleep at a motel, and woke up floating on his mattress just several feet from the ceiling. He rarely talked about it; and I don't think he ever chased again.

http://www.nwas.org/committees/ed_comm/application/Pike.php

Now that is what I call a RUDE AWAKING!! . Must have been a fun time for him and now I can see why he started concentrating on the Epac . Wouldn't mind having a conversation with him if he was still alive (Died at age 49? shame).

[cycloneye]

WTPZ41 KNHC 150831
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
200 AM PDT TUE MAY 15 2012

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT ALETTA'S CLOUD PATTERN
HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING...WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
EMBEDDED JUST WITHIN THE COLD CONVECTIVE OVERCAST. UW-CIMSS
UPPER-LEVEL WV/IR WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT ALETTA IS SITUATED
JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS CREATING A
DIFFLUENT PATTERN OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. ENHANCED BD-CURVE
SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS RESIDE IN THIS
PARTICULAR QUADRANT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS
ARE T2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH 24 HOURS BEFORE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR BEGINS TO IMPEDE ANY
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE OF THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS...SUGGESTING GRADUAL
WEAKENING BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD AND DISSIPATION BY DAY 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/8...WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLY
STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. LITTLE CHANGE IN MOTION AND
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...AS DEPICTED BY
A MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. AFTERWARD...A REDUCTION IN SPEED
IS FORECAST AS THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED STEERING CURRENT WEAKEN IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY A REPRODUCTION OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
THE FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 10.8N 108.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 11.1N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 11.4N 112.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 11.6N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 11.9N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 12.5N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 13.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[WeatherGuesser]

Isn't this opening day?

[Chacor]

Isn't this opening day?

It is; we're due our first official TWO of the season at the top of the hour.

____

ABPZ20 KNHC 151140
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE MAY 15 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ALETTA...LOCATED ABOUT 640 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR
THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE
15...9...AND 4...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2012 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ALETTA A LET- AH MIRIAM MEER- YIM
BUD BUHD NORMAN NOR- MUHN
CARLOTTA KAR LOT- UH OLIVIA UH LIV- EE UH
DANIEL DAN- YUHL PAUL PALL
EMILIA EE MILL- YA ROSA ROH- ZUH
FABIO FAH- BEE O SERGIO SIR- GEE OH
GILMA GIL- MAH TARA TAIR- UH
HECTOR HEHK- TOR VICENTE VEE CEN- TAY
ILEANA ILL AY AH- NAH WILLA WIH- LAH
JOHN JAHN XAVIER ZAY- VEE UR
KRISTY KRIS- TEE YOLANDA YO LAHN- DA
LANE LAYNE ZEKE ZEEK

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 5 AM...11 AM...5 PM...AND 11 PM PDT.
AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES
ARE 4 AM...10 AM...4 PM...AND 10 PM PST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE
UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED
ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE
REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL
ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE
UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUEP1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. SIGN UP FOR PRODUCT
UPDATES BY EMAIL AT http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/SIGNUP.SHTML...IN ALL LOWER
CASE. YOU CAN ALSO INTERACT WITH NHC ON FACEBOOK AT
http://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONA ... CENTER.GOV. NOTIFICATIONS
ARE AVAILABLE VIA TWITTER WHEN SELECT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED. INFORMATION ABOUT OUR EAST PACIFIC TWITTER
FEED IS AVAILABLE AT http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TWITTER.SHTML...IN ALL
LOWER CASE.

&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ALETTA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON ALETTA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTPZ21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP1.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Yellow Evan]

FYI, including CPHC storms, Aletta is the 5th earliest EPAC TC.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 35kts.


TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 AM PDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ALETTA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS OR SO. THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITH THE CENTER APPARENTLY ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 2.5 FROM BOTH
SAB AND TAFB AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONCE AGAIN MAINTAINED AT
35 KT. ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND
OVER WARM SSTS THAT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
DURING THE 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN INCREASE
IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INCREASING SHEAR AND SOME DRIER AIR
THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED
TO INITIATE WEAKENING WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. ALETTA IS FORECAST TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ALETTA IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 280/8 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT REMAINS SOUTH OF A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONSIDERABLE SLOWING OF THE
FORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD AFTER
THAT TIME AS SOME OF THE MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. FOR NOW...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ALLETTA
MAINTAINING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION.
HOWEVER... THE UPDATED FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS 3 AND 4...IN DEFERENCE TO THE SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED SHOWN BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BY THAT TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 10.6N 109.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 11.0N 111.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 11.3N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 11.6N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 12.0N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 12.5N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z 13.0N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[senorpepr]

Aletta's approaching a large area of closed-cell stratocumulus symbolizing the closing window for development.

[cycloneye]

She is still wanting to get a little bit stronger.

EP, 01, 2012051518, , BEST, 0, 109N, 1100W, 40, 1003, TS

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[senorpepr]

Here's the 18Z MSI along with GFS streamlines at 925 hPa showing the low-level convergence along with ITCZ.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
200 PM PDT TUE MAY 15 2012

THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE IMPROVED AROUND THE TIME OF
THE ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A 1528 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWED A BAND OF CONVECTION THAT WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. VERY RECENTLY...A NEW BURST OF
DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. OBJECTIVE
AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.0 YIELD AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
12 HOUR OR SO. AFTER THAT...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SOME
DRIER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO NEGATIVELY IMPACT THE CYCLONE. THE GFS
AND SHIPS OUTPUT SUGGEST A LITTLE LESS SHEAR THAN THE ECMWF AND
UKMET MODELS WHICH SHOW STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE. IN DEFERENCE TO THE LATTER TWO
MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE FASTER RATE OF
WEAKENING THAN THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.

ALETTA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
THAT IS LOCATED WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN. THERE IS NOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE
TRACK GUIDANCE AFTER 36 HOURS. THE ECMWF TURNS ALETTA NORTHWARD
AND THEN EASTWARD AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW ALETTA MOVING FARTHER
WESTWARD BEFORE DECELERATING AND TURNING NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL TRENDS OF THESE MODELS IS TOWARD THE EAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONCE AGAIN SLOWED DOWN AND SHIFTED
EASTWARD AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/UKMET MODELS. THE
NHC FORECAST LIES SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ADDITIONAL EASTWARD SHIFTS MAY BE
REQUIRED IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 11.2N 110.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 11.4N 111.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 11.8N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 11.9N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 12.3N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 12.8N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1800Z 13.5N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

00Z Best Track:

EP, 01, 2012051600, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1106W, 40, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 80, 0, 0, 60,

[Yellow Evan]

So, still at 40 knts.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 PM PDT TUE MAY 15 2012

AFTER BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED EARLIER TODAY...ALETTA HAS
RECENTLY BECOME RATHER RAGGED-LOOKING. BANDING FEATURES HAVE
BECOME ILL-DEFINED...AND ARC CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EMANATING FROM THE
CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...WHICH IS USUALLY INDICATIVE
OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ENTERING THE CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE
CURRENT APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM. THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF ALETTA IMPLIES A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
ENVIRONMENT. THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...SHOULD
CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
CLOSE TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE.

THE CENTER HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN GEOSTATIONARY AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY...SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN
285/9. ALL OF THE RECENT DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE NOW SHOW A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A BROAD LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR TO THE EAST AS SOME OF
THE MODELS AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 11.7N 110.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 12.0N 112.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 12.4N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 12.7N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 13.0N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 13.5N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Chacor]

WTPZ41 KNHC 160832
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
200 AM PDT WED MAY 16 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND ON IR IMAGES BUT RECENT MICROWAVE
DATA SUGGEST THAT IT COULD BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN AREA
OF CONVECTION. NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AWAY FROM
THE ALLEGED CENTER...BUT ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF INCREASING
ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING ADVERSE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE SHEAR
INCREASES AND DRY AIR APPROACHES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
GRADUAL WEAKENING...CLOSE TO THE RATE SUGGESTED BY THE LGEM
GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE
IS 285/8. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NEW GUIDANCE
INSISTS ON A TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST BEYOND 36 HOURS
AS ALETTA BECOMES STEERED BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS TRACK WAS
ALREADY INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AND IS
EMPHASIZED IN THIS ONE. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT THE CYCLONE
BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND MEANDERS INSTEAD AS IT DEGENERATES
INTO A REMANT LOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 11.9N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 12.0N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 12.4N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 12.8N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 13.0N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 14.0N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0600Z 15.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[WeatherGuesser]

senorpepr,

You know, not everybody has broadband and many that do have bandwidth limits or daily/weekly/monthly caps. Posting images that are over 1Mb in file size can cause problems for them. It's better to post links to such large images and mention the file size so people can know before they click/view.

[Yellow Evan]

Aletta looks be on its way out.