EPAC: ALETTA - Post Tropical

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
200 PM PDT THU MAY 17 2012

...ALETTA TURNS NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 114.7W
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AT A SLOW FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ALETTA
IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
200 PM PDT THU MAY 17 2012

CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN RAGGED BANDS NEAR THE CENTER OF ALETTA
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOW LONG THIS CONVECTION CAN
PERSIST IS UNCERTAIN...SINCE ALETTA CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE
20 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS
SHOULD CAUSE ALETTA TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR
LESS. FINAL DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN 72-96 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW
BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGER DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST.

ALETTA HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/5. ALETTA IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE
OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
OR SOUTH AS THE LARGER DISTURBANCE BECOMES THE MAIN STEERING
MECHANISM. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 13.1N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 13.4N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 13.8N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 14.0N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1800Z 13.9N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1800Z 13.0N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1800Z 12.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It sure is a persistent cyclone...

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 PM PDT THU MAY 17 2012

...ALETTA LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 114.3W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.
A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT A SLOW FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND
ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 PM PDT THU MAY 17 2012

DEEP CONVECTION INCREASED OVER AND AROUND THE CENTER OF ALETTA A FEW
HOURS AGO...BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE ON THE WANE. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO LACK BANDING FEATURES...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB GIVE AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
SOUTHERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND VERY DRY AIR LIES
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION. AS THIS AIR BECOMES MORE
ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF ALETTA...CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW IN A DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
LGEM GUIDANCE AND IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST. THE CYCLONE SHOULD LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN 3-4 DAYS OR
SOONER AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION TO ITS
EAST.

THE HEADING OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO VEER TO THE RIGHT...
WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW ABOUT 020/5. STEERING
CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY DIVERGENT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THAT ALETTA
OR ITS REMNANT WILL TURN EASTWARD DUE TO LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH A LARGER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO ITS EAST IN 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 13.6N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 13.9N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 14.1N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/1200Z 14.1N 113.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/0000Z 13.7N 112.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0000Z 12.8N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Kingarabian]

Talk about busting forecasts, the NHC is having a hard time with this one.

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 180831
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
200 AM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012

DESPITE THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR...ALETTA
HAS SURVIVED LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. FURTHERMORE...THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND IN FACT...
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTED TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AT
0600Z. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY
BECAUSE SINCE THE TIME OF THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION...CONVECTION
HAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH. THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL...SO I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST WEAKENING. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN 3-4 DAYS OR SOONER AS IT
BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A LARGE DEVELOPING CIRCULATION TO ITS EAST.

THE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 045 DEGREES AT
3 KNOTS. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY DIVERGENT...PROBABLY MEANING
THAT THE STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS
THAT ALETTA OR ITS REMANTS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW OF A THE LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION WHICH ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING EAST OF ALETTA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 13.8N 113.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 14.0N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 14.0N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/1800Z 14.0N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/0600Z 13.5N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0600Z 12.5N 111.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 180830
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
200 AM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012

...ALETTA STILL ALIVE....


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 113.8W
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A
TURN TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND ALETTA SHOULD BECOME
A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[tolakram]

First Visible



Live Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

The link to create your own sat loops: http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/getsatellite.html

[Yellow Evan]

Aletta not done yet.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPZ41 KNHC 181432
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 AM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012

FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF ALETTA IS
EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO 20-25 KT OF
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
30 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 30 KT. THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED SHEAR AND MID/
UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD CAUSE ALETTA TO DECAY INTO A
REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 12-24 H...WITH THE REMNANTS BEING ABSORBED
BY A LARGER DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST IN 72-96 H.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/5. ALETTA REMAINS IN AN AREA OF WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. THE DEPRESSION OR ITS
REMNANTS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT 72 H AS THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST BECOMES THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 14.2N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 14.4N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 14.4N 112.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0000Z 14.0N 112.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1200Z 13.1N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1200Z 11.5N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 181431
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 AM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012

...ALETTA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD....


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 113.6W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A
TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND A SLOW FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ALETTA
COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 181431
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
1500 UTC FRI MAY 18 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.6W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 113.6W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 113.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.4N 113.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.4N 112.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.0N 112.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 13.1N 112.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 11.5N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 113.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Chacor]

Not very much left.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
200 PM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012

THE CENTER OF ALETTA REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION DUE TO 25 KT OF SOUTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM
SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...AND A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS SHOWS A FEW
25-30 KT VECTORS EAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS AGAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE COMBINATION OF
CONTINUED SHEAR AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOULD CAUSE ALETTA TO DECAY INTO A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS...WITH THE REMNANTS BEING ABSORBED BY A LARGER
DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST IN 48-72 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/3. ALETTA REMAINS IN AN AREA OF WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. THE DEPRESSION OR ITS
REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST BECOMES THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 14.4N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 14.5N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 14.2N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0600Z 13.6N 112.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1800Z 12.7N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 182031
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
200 PM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012

...POORLY-ORGANIZED ALETTA STILL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 113.5W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A
TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND A SLOW FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ALETTA
COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 182031
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
2100 UTC FRI MAY 18 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 113.5W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 113.5W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 113.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 14.5N 113.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 14.2N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 13.6N 112.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 12.7N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 113.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 PM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012

ALETTA HAS ONE WEAKENING PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SO IT STILL QUALIFIES...ALBEIT BARELY...AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. BASED ON DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. CONTINUED
STRONG SHEAR AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR...AS
SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...SHOULD LEAD TO THE
DEMISE OF THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TOMORROW.

THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...045/03...IN A
REGION OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OR REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN EASTWARD...AND THEN
SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 14.5N 113.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 14.5N 112.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/0000Z 14.0N 112.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/1200Z 13.3N 112.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/0000Z 12.4N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 190231
TCDEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 PM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012

ALETTA HAS ONE WEAKENING PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SO IT STILL QUALIFIES...ALBEIT BARELY...AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. BASED ON DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. CONTINUED
STRONG SHEAR AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR...AS
SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...SHOULD LEAD TO THE
DEMISE OF THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TOMORROW.

THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...045/03...IN A
REGION OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OR REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN EASTWARD...AND THEN
SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 14.5N 113.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 14.5N 112.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/0000Z 14.0N 112.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/1200Z 13.3N 112.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/0000Z 12.4N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 190231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
800 PM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012

...ALETTA WEAKENS...SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 113.2W
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A
TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTH AT A SLOW FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALETTA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW TOMORROW.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 190230
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
0300 UTC SAT MAY 19 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 113.2W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 113.2W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 113.3W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.5N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.0N 112.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 13.3N 112.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.4N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 113.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[CrazyC83]

Aletta was probably a tropical storm all day yesterday and this morning based on the satellite and ASCAT pass after weakening as well...

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah, for a few hours or so.