EPAC: ALETTA - Post Tropical

[CrazyC83]

When was the last time an EPAC storm formed this early (i.e. May 14 or earlier)?

[Macrocane]

And the show begins...

According to wikipedia the last one was 1996 tropical storm 1E.

[bg1]

I don't want this one to make it to TS status.

Last year there were 11 storms, 10 hurricanes and one 70 mph storm. This year, it would be cool to see all the named storms become hurricanes in the EPAC, since they rarely threaten land. According to the outlook, it doesn't look likely for this TD.

[CrazyC83]

I don't want this one to make it to TS status.

Last year there were 11 storms, 10 hurricanes and one 70 mph storm. This year, it would be cool to see all the named storms become hurricanes in the EPAC, since they rarely threaten land. According to the outlook, it doesn't look likely for this TD.

That 70 mph storm was probably a hurricane IMO. It was "go big or go home" last year in the EPAC, that was for sure!

[Kingarabian]

I think NOGAPS is showing something in the next weeks or so as well.

[senorpepr]

MSI image of 01E and next EPAC tropical wave, with 925 hPa GFS streamlines overlaid:

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
200 PM PDT MON MAY 14 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS HAS PERSISTED AND EXPANDED...
WHILE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED IN RECENT HOURS. THERE IS ALSO
EVIDENCE OF INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING...THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER IS BELIEVED TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BE NAMED ON THE NEXT
ADVISORY PACKAGE. THE DEPRESSION HAS A NARROW WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS TO INTENSIFY. AFTER
THAT TIME...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...ACCOMPANIED BY A CONSIDERABLE
INCREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INCREASING SHEAR
SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 4-5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE...WHICH
CONTINUES TO FORECAST LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
DYNAMICAL MODELS.

THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 280/07. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
UNDER THE EASTERN END OF A WELL-DEFINED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER
THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION
ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD HEADING WITH SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER WEAKENING
COMMENCES...THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD DECREASE...
WITH THE GFS HINTING THAT THE WEAKENED CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS
COULD EVEN TURN EASTWARD INTO AN ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW
THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BY LATE THIS WEEK.
THE OFFICIAL NHC IS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 10.0N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 10.3N 108.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 10.7N 110.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 11.0N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 11.3N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 11.6N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 12.0N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[cycloneye]

Unless it falls apart in the next 4-6 hours,it will be upgraded to TS Aletta on the 8 PM PDT advisory.





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[Yellow Evan]

First EPAC pre-season storm since 1996.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm surprised this is not a TS yet.

[MGC]

Should be upgraded to TS soon...only has about 24 hours before the shear starts....MGC

[Yellow Evan]

Looking fairly nice.

[Yellow Evan]

The ECMWF/GFS develop this into a hurricane and send it towards the Mexican coastline.

[cycloneye]

The ECMWF/GFS develop this into a hurricane and send it towards the Mexican coastline.

To clarify,what the models develop is another disturbance,now around 90W.

[Yellow Evan]

looking good at this hour

[Yellow Evan]

Here is an IR look.

[brunota2003]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, it is that time of year again. Looking at CIMSS, not much to go by with this newly formed system. RI is not likely (somewhere in the 5% range), though I can see a jump in wind speeds of 20 to 25 knots in the next 24 hours. That'll put the wind speed at 60 to 65 mph by 8 pm EDT tomorrow...or 50 to 55 knots.

That's my guess! This is subject to change as more images come in.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

We should have Tropical Storm Aletta (40 mph) at 11 PM EDT/8 PM PDT:


14/2345 UTC 10.6N 108.0W T2.5/2.5 01E -- East Pacific

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

...and here she is!


EP, 01, 2012051500, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1080W, 35, 1004, TS

[Yellow Evan]

...and here she is!


EP, 01, 2012051500, , BEST, 0, 104N, 1080W, 35, 1004, TS

Yay! Not expecting much further intensification though.