ATL: INVEST 92L

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It's slowly increasing in convection at this time. It exited 20C waters earlier and its convection quickly died. Well, it should be reentering those warm temperatures as the low turns southwest and south. It has one more shot at development.

[cycloneye]

The dvorak T number decreased in the latest update a little bit from ST3.5 to ST 3.0.

12/2345 UTC 34.4N 30.7W ST3.0 92L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Understandable considering the T number of 3.5 came from when 92L was looking very healthy.

I wonder what we'll wake up to tomorrow.

[senorpepr]

Almost sunrise--not looking as healthy as it did yesterday:

[Chacor]

The dvorak T number decreased in the latest update a little bit from ST3.5 to ST 3.0.

12/2345 UTC 34.4N 30.7W ST3.0 92L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

To clarify, that is an Hebert-Poteat ST number, not a Dvorak number. Different techniques.

[cycloneye]

Unless convection refires,it's over for 92L.

[cycloneye]

They keep releasing the Best Track for 92L.

92, 2012051312, , BEST, 0, 349N, 328W, 40, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[brunota2003]

It looks like comvection is trying to fight back on the last couple frames (NASA GHCC images)

[Chacor]

ABNT20 KNHC 131355
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
955 AM EDT SUN MAY 13 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW ABOUT
460 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS HAS
DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS
DECREASED...AND THE SYSTEM NOW HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR MONDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Convection is on the rebound once again. The big question is, can it continue to blow it up atop its center and sustain it?

Probably not, huh?

[HURAKAN]

20120513 1800 34.7 33.5 ST3.0 92L

[Hurricanehink]

More convection than earlier over the center. Let's see if NHC issues another STWO.

[KatDaddy]

Still might make a TC. The little engine that could.

[lebron23]

Ehh doesnt look all that great

[littlevince]

RGB Loop: http://i.imgur.com/mHxFI.gif (2Mb)

[ROCK]

interesting little guy....and over cold ssts to boot. I thought it should have been named earlier. I need to make my large 13/9/4 predictions this year....

[cycloneye]

And they continue to release Best Track data on 92L.Here is the 00z.

AL, 92, 2012051400, , BEST, 0, 340N, 339W, 40, 1007, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[littlevince]

Inglorious struggle

[JonathanBelles]

Interesting small little swirl passing to the south of 92L right now.

[JonathanBelles]

This is interesting: 20120514 0545 33.5 33.7 T2.5/2.5 92L 92L

Transition to Tropical...rather surprising to me given that thermal profile hasnt changed.