EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

GFS slightly farther south again. around st augustine or palm coast then just about into the gulf out to 51 hours.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[zeehag]

thankyou for your discussions of our blessed non event here in la cruz de huanacaxtle--we got an inch of rain in the marina and no wind--blessed..you guys rock.

[Evil Jeremy]

12z HWRF has landfall a nudge south of the last run, and a little stronger.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html

EDIT:
12z GFDL is a little more north and a little weaker than it's last run.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html

EDIT:
12z UKMET has shifted south from it's previous run, which was in the more northern part of the consensus, and above the NHC line. Now its in the bottom of the consensus.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... tLoop.html

[bg1]

EDIT:
12z GFDL is a little more north and a little weaker than it's last run.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html

At the end, does it turn it into a nor'easter? I was afraid of that ever since I saw the 11 am official track.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF is a little more stronger than prior runs before landfall on FLA/GA border.

[Macrocane]

The rapid weakening of Bud reminds me to 2005 Adrian as it was expected to make landfall as a hurricane but it weakened rapidly and it looked like a blob of thunderstorms when it made landfall in Central America.

[ronjon]

The majority of the GFS ensemble runs now want to take Beryl south of the official track and into the NE GOM.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201202_ensmodel.html

[Hurricane Andrew]

Look at this. Takes it into the gulf.
http://hp5.wright-weather.com/wrf_radar-loop_2hour.gif

[Kingarabian]

The rapid weakening of Bud reminds me to 2005 Adrian as it was expected to make landfall as a hurricane but it weakened rapidly and it looked like a blob of thunderstorms when it made landfall in Central America.

Which is why I love E-Pac storms. 90% of the time sexy fishes.
They give us something to look and wow at, but they rarely threaten anyone.

[Javlin]

Look at this. Takes it into the gulf.
http://hp5.wright-weather.com/wrf_radar-loop_2hour.gif

Almost an Erin without the intensity would love it in that regard for rain reasons.

[FutureEM]

Look at this. Takes it into the gulf.
http://hp5.wright-weather.com/wrf_radar-loop_2hour.gif

Not even it's predecesor the MM5 is doing that, the WRF is a big outlier here.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/index.php?option= ... &Itemid=88

[Hurricane Andrew]

WRF-NMM in gulf as well in 48 hours.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[thetruesms]

Look at this. Takes it into the gulf.
http://hp5.wright-weather.com/wrf_radar-loop_2hour.gif

Not even it's predecesor the MM5 is doing that, the WRF is a big outlier here.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/index.php?option= ... &Itemid=88

WRF-NMM in gulf as well in 48 hours.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

This is admittedly a little nitpicky, but there are numerous independent implementations of the MM5, WRF-ARW, and WRF-NMM out there - there isn't really "the MM5" or "the WRF", as they could all theoretically give different solutions, though they're likely to be at least fairly similar. It could be helpful to refer to which particular one you're referring to - ie, the Mexican Meteorological Service MM5, or the NCEP WRF-NMM.

[Pigsnibble]

The NHC seems to be starting off the season well with another nicely forcasted storm.

Are the models getting better or was this scenario so set in stone to allow the forcasted recurve to happen that the models had little variability.

In any case, hats off to the forcasters, so far.

[WacoWx]

Can I tell the bachelor of the wedding in Puerto Vallarta in 2 weeks that there is absolutely no damage from Bud, and calm his fiance down? I told him it would only be a rain maker and no damage. Validation of my forecast would be appreciated, or if there is actual damage (cant imagine how), I'll tell her that it was caused by the economy/insert excuse. Because my forecast is not official...or wrong lol

Obviously I didnt read the thread.

[Yellow Evan]

Can I tell the bachelor of the wedding in Puerto Vallarta in 2 weeks that there is absolutely no damage from Bud, and calm his fiance down? I told him it would only be a rain maker and no damage. Validation of my forecast would be appreciated, or if there is actual damage (cant imagine how), I'll tell her that it was caused by the economy/insert excuse. Because my forecast is not official...or wrong lol

Obviously I didnt read the thread.

There was minor damage, just south of Puerto Vallarta.

[Yellow Evan]

The rapid weakening of Bud reminds me to 2005 Adrian as it was expected to make landfall as a hurricane but it weakened rapidly and it looked like a blob of thunderstorms when it made landfall in Central America.

Which is why I love E-Pac storms. 90% of the time sexy fishes.
They give us something to look and wow at, but they rarely threaten anyone.

Might alarm some people here, but EPAC>ATL IMO.

[CrazyC83]

I think it has to do with two things:

* Once over Mexico, it immediately hits tall mountains. Those rip storms to shreds before the eye even approaches. Meanwhile, large parts of the Atlantic basin coasts (the entire US coast, the Yucatan, northeastern Mexico) are quite flat and don't do nearly as much damage to storm circulations. The Greater Antilles and part of Central America do the most damage.

* The dry continental air mass is much more entrenched in western North America than in eastern North America, even at higher latitudes. While dry air does come into play, it is not as dry as the desert air (especially outside monsoon season) in northern Mexico.