Tonight's 00Z Runs:
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al942012.png
EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical
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'CaneFreak
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
KWBC 260155
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0155 UTC SAT MAY 26 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE BERYL (AL022012) 20120526 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120526 0000 120526 1200 120527 0000 120527 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.3N 74.9W 32.5N 75.5W 32.3N 77.0W 32.3N 79.3W
BAMD 32.3N 74.9W 32.9N 74.9W 32.8N 76.1W 32.7N 78.2W
BAMM 32.3N 74.9W 32.4N 75.2W 32.1N 76.4W 32.0N 78.6W
LBAR 32.3N 74.9W 33.4N 74.1W 33.9N 73.6W 33.9N 73.2W
SHIP 40KTS 42KTS 43KTS 43KTS
DSHP 40KTS 42KTS 43KTS 43KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120528 0000 120529 0000 120530 0000 120531 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.5N 81.7W 33.8N 84.7W 35.0N 82.5W 35.1N 78.4W
BAMD 32.5N 80.4W 32.1N 83.3W 32.4N 82.1W 34.9N 77.5W
BAMM 32.0N 80.8W 32.5N 83.4W 33.8N 81.5W 35.9N 76.5W
LBAR 33.5N 72.7W 32.0N 71.7W 30.1N 70.5W 29.1N 68.6W
SHIP 40KTS 31KTS 25KTS 28KTS
DSHP 40KTS 28KTS 27KTS 33KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.3N LONCUR = 74.9W DIRCUR = 15DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 30.0N LONM12 = 75.6W DIRM12 = 39DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 26.5N LONM24 = 78.7W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 120NM
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0155 UTC SAT MAY 26 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE BERYL (AL022012) 20120526 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120526 0000 120526 1200 120527 0000 120527 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.3N 74.9W 32.5N 75.5W 32.3N 77.0W 32.3N 79.3W
BAMD 32.3N 74.9W 32.9N 74.9W 32.8N 76.1W 32.7N 78.2W
BAMM 32.3N 74.9W 32.4N 75.2W 32.1N 76.4W 32.0N 78.6W
LBAR 32.3N 74.9W 33.4N 74.1W 33.9N 73.6W 33.9N 73.2W
SHIP 40KTS 42KTS 43KTS 43KTS
DSHP 40KTS 42KTS 43KTS 43KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120528 0000 120529 0000 120530 0000 120531 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.5N 81.7W 33.8N 84.7W 35.0N 82.5W 35.1N 78.4W
BAMD 32.5N 80.4W 32.1N 83.3W 32.4N 82.1W 34.9N 77.5W
BAMM 32.0N 80.8W 32.5N 83.4W 33.8N 81.5W 35.9N 76.5W
LBAR 33.5N 72.7W 32.0N 71.7W 30.1N 70.5W 29.1N 68.6W
SHIP 40KTS 31KTS 25KTS 28KTS
DSHP 40KTS 28KTS 27KTS 33KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.3N LONCUR = 74.9W DIRCUR = 15DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 30.0N LONM12 = 75.6W DIRM12 = 39DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 26.5N LONM24 = 78.7W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 120NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
The GFS long range model may have had Beryl pegged two weeks ago, an interesting article form early May:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... _blog.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... _blog.html
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Storm
TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BUD HAS BECOME VERY
DISORGANIZED...WITH NO CONVECTION OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SMALL AND WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER STILL EXISTS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT...BASED MAINLY ON
EXTRAPOLATION FROM EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA...AND THIS COULD BE
GENEROUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/6. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. BUD SHOULD CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK
TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES
THE COAST OF MEXICO. AFTER 12-24 H...THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF BUD. THIS MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.
A COMBINATION OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...AND INTERACTION WITH THE COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CAUSE
BUD TO CONTINUE WEAKENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A DEPRESSION BY 24 H AND A REMNANT LOW BY 48
H. IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN...BUD COULD DISSIPATE FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
DESPITE THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION...THERE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND DANGEROUS MUD SLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...
JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 19.7N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 20.3N 105.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 20.3N 105.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 20.2N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 19.7N 106.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BUD HAS BECOME VERY
DISORGANIZED...WITH NO CONVECTION OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SMALL AND WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER STILL EXISTS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT...BASED MAINLY ON
EXTRAPOLATION FROM EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA...AND THIS COULD BE
GENEROUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/6. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. BUD SHOULD CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK
TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES
THE COAST OF MEXICO. AFTER 12-24 H...THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF BUD. THIS MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.
A COMBINATION OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...AND INTERACTION WITH THE COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CAUSE
BUD TO CONTINUE WEAKENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A DEPRESSION BY 24 H AND A REMNANT LOW BY 48
H. IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN...BUD COULD DISSIPATE FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
DESPITE THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION...THERE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND DANGEROUS MUD SLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...
JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 19.7N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 20.3N 105.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 20.3N 105.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 20.2N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 19.7N 106.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
FutureEM wrote:The GFS long range model may have had Beryl pegged two weeks ago, an interesting article form early May:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... _blog.html
Lol, the GFS had so many solutions of possibilities that 1 out of 100 came true
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Yellow Evan
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000
WTPZ32 KNHC 260236
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012
...BUD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 105.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST. BUD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION AT
A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND
BUD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SATURDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING THE COAST OF MEXICO
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES
OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF BUD MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTPZ32 KNHC 260236
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012
...BUD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 105.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.6 WEST. BUD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION AT
A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND
BUD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SATURDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE AFFECTING THE COAST OF MEXICO
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES
OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF BUD MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Evil Jeremy
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SeminoleWind
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00Z GFS @ 48HRS
Not much of a change from 18Z maybe a tad faster.
Not much of a change from 18Z maybe a tad faster.
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This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: BUD - Tropical Depression
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 AM PDT SAT MAY 26 2012
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON BUD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. NO DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRESENT SINCE ABOUT 00Z AND DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN DROPPING AS QUICKLY AS CONSTRAINTS ALLOW. A
FORTUITOUS ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0405Z INDICATED THAT THE
CENTER OF BUD WAS EITHER INLAND OVER MEXICO OR VERY CLOSE TO THE
COAST AND THAT WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WERE 25 KT AT
MOST. ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESSURE AT PUERTO VALLARTA HAS BEEN
RISING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...DESPITE BUD MOVING WITHIN ABOUT
40 NM OF THE CITY. THUS WHILE BUD WAS LIKELY STILL A MINIMAL
TROPICAL STORM AT 06Z...THE CYCLONE IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. FURTHER WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IS
INDICATED BY ALL STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHORTLY.
THE CURRENT MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 350/5 AS THE LAST RELIABLE CENTER
FIX WAS FROM A 0026Z SSMIS IMAGE FROM THE NRL WEBSITE. THE
SOON-TO-BE REMNANT LOW OF BUD SHOULD DRIFT NORTHWARD BEFORE
STALLING AND DISSIPATING WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS OF NOTE
THAT ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THAT BUD LIKELY HAS DECOUPLED
AND THAT THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX IS NOW DISPLACED INLAND WELL EAST OF
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 20.3N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 20.7N 105.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/0600Z 20.7N 106.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BRENNAN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 AM PDT SAT MAY 26 2012
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON BUD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. NO DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRESENT SINCE ABOUT 00Z AND DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN DROPPING AS QUICKLY AS CONSTRAINTS ALLOW. A
FORTUITOUS ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0405Z INDICATED THAT THE
CENTER OF BUD WAS EITHER INLAND OVER MEXICO OR VERY CLOSE TO THE
COAST AND THAT WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WERE 25 KT AT
MOST. ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESSURE AT PUERTO VALLARTA HAS BEEN
RISING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...DESPITE BUD MOVING WITHIN ABOUT
40 NM OF THE CITY. THUS WHILE BUD WAS LIKELY STILL A MINIMAL
TROPICAL STORM AT 06Z...THE CYCLONE IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. FURTHER WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IS
INDICATED BY ALL STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHORTLY.
THE CURRENT MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 350/5 AS THE LAST RELIABLE CENTER
FIX WAS FROM A 0026Z SSMIS IMAGE FROM THE NRL WEBSITE. THE
SOON-TO-BE REMNANT LOW OF BUD SHOULD DRIFT NORTHWARD BEFORE
STALLING AND DISSIPATING WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS OF NOTE
THAT ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THAT BUD LIKELY HAS DECOUPLED
AND THAT THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX IS NOW DISPLACED INLAND WELL EAST OF
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 20.3N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 20.7N 105.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/0600Z 20.7N 106.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2012052606&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
06Z GFS - looks like pretty much the same track
06Z GFS - looks like pretty much the same track
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models
06z HWRF is a little bit stronger than previous runs.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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Yellow Evan
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Yellow Evan
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Also, in case someone does not have access to the NHC sites, and someone forget to post the two public advisorys ill post them now.
ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BUD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
1100 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012
...BUD WEAKENING WHILE APPROACHING CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 105.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST. BUD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION AT
A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE
COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND
BUD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES
OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF BUD MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BRENNAN
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 AM PDT SAT MAY 26 2012
...BUD WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 105.7W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR MEXICO HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST. BUD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND BUD IS EXPECTED
TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO IN THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO AND SOUTHERN
NAYARIT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BRENNAN
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BUD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
1100 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012
...BUD WEAKENING WHILE APPROACHING CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 105.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST. BUD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION AT
A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR THE
COAST OF MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND
BUD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF
MEXICO IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6
TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES
OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF BUD MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BRENNAN
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 AM PDT SAT MAY 26 2012
...BUD WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 105.7W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR MEXICO HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST. BUD IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND BUD IS EXPECTED
TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO IN THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO AND SOUTHERN
NAYARIT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BRENNAN
NNNN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139080
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical
Last Advisory Written
BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 AM PDT SAT MAY 26 2012
...BUD DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 105.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD
WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST.
BUD IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. LITTLE MOTION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BUD COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS
OF BUD PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER
FZPN01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 AM PDT SAT MAY 26 2012
BASED ON THE LACK OF CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 15 HOURS...BUD IS
ASSESSED TO BE A REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.
THE CENTER...IF THERE IS ONE...IS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE...AND THE
ADVISORY POSITION WAS DETERMINED LARGELY FROM CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND MODEST HINTS IN A COUPLE OF OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE
PASSES. THE CENTER COULD BE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...NOT THAT IT
MATTERS MUCH. ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH
BUD...BUT THAT THREAT IS ALSO RAPIDLY DIMINISHING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 20.6N 105.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 27/0000Z 20.8N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 AM PDT SAT MAY 26 2012
...BUD DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 105.8W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD
WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST.
BUD IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. LITTLE MOTION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BUD COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS
OF BUD PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER
FZPN01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 AM PDT SAT MAY 26 2012
BASED ON THE LACK OF CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 15 HOURS...BUD IS
ASSESSED TO BE A REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.
THE CENTER...IF THERE IS ONE...IS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE...AND THE
ADVISORY POSITION WAS DETERMINED LARGELY FROM CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND MODEST HINTS IN A COUPLE OF OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE
PASSES. THE CENTER COULD BE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...NOT THAT IT
MATTERS MUCH. ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH
BUD...BUT THAT THREAT IS ALSO RAPIDLY DIMINISHING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/1500Z 20.6N 105.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 27/0000Z 20.8N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Yellow Evan
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139080
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical
It was a very interesting system to follow from the start when it was a invest as it took a while to start to organize. Then it made it into Tropical Storm,hurricane and then the first major cane of 2012 in the EPAC.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: BERYL - Models
Here are all the models on intensity.
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