WPAC: SANVU - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WPAC: SANVU - Post-Tropical
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N 150.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 95 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH IMPROVING DEEP CONVECTION. A 181151Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS
15-20 KNOT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM WITH
WEAK 5-10 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
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NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
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NWS for the Western Pacific
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- WesternPacificWeather.com
- Posts: 1215
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
This one's going to bring you some active weather Euro!
Special statement released by NWS Guam:
000
WWMY80 PGUM 190542
SPSMY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
342 PM CHST SAT MAY 19 2012
GUZ001>004-192045-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
342 PM CHST SAT MAY 19 2012
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO BRING RAIN TO THE MARIANAS...
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
NEAR 8.5 DEGREES NORTH AND 152.0 DEGREES EAST IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MARIANAS FROM LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE REGION.
WHILE THE FUTURE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
STILL UNCERTAIN...IT APPEARS LIKELY IT WILL PASS NEAR ENOUGH TO
THE MARIANAS TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH POSSIBLE IN HEAVY
SHOWERS.
RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. FASTER-THAN-EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT COULD
RESULT IN MORE WIND AND RAIN THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...OR EVEN IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. LISTEN FOR THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
$$
MIDDLEBROOKE
Special statement released by NWS Guam:
000
WWMY80 PGUM 190542
SPSMY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
342 PM CHST SAT MAY 19 2012
GUZ001>004-192045-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
342 PM CHST SAT MAY 19 2012
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO BRING RAIN TO THE MARIANAS...
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
NEAR 8.5 DEGREES NORTH AND 152.0 DEGREES EAST IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MARIANAS FROM LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE REGION.
WHILE THE FUTURE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
STILL UNCERTAIN...IT APPEARS LIKELY IT WILL PASS NEAR ENOUGH TO
THE MARIANAS TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH POSSIBLE IN HEAVY
SHOWERS.
RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. FASTER-THAN-EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT COULD
RESULT IN MORE WIND AND RAIN THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...OR EVEN IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. LISTEN FOR THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
$$
MIDDLEBROOKE
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139067
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
Upgraded to Medium.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N
150.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 151.2E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARPLY TURNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD LINE WRAPPING INTO
THE SUSPECTED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE SOUTH
AND EAST. A 190224Z OSCAT PARTIAL PASS INDICATES 10-15 KNOTS OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. A 190336Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONTAINED IN THE LARGE BAND TO THE SOUTH AND A
RELATIVELY DRIER UPPER-LEVEL AIRMASS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER GUAM.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL OVER GUAM PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, A TUTT CELL RESIDES NEAR
THE DATELINE WHICH IS ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE LLCC ITSELF
IS UNDER AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK TO MODERATE AT 10-15 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N
150.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 151.2E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARPLY TURNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD LINE WRAPPING INTO
THE SUSPECTED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE SOUTH
AND EAST. A 190224Z OSCAT PARTIAL PASS INDICATES 10-15 KNOTS OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. A 190336Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONTAINED IN THE LARGE BAND TO THE SOUTH AND A
RELATIVELY DRIER UPPER-LEVEL AIRMASS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER GUAM.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL OVER GUAM PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, A TUTT CELL RESIDES NEAR
THE DATELINE WHICH IS ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE LLCC ITSELF
IS UNDER AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK TO MODERATE AT 10-15 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
000
WWPQ80 PGUM 191026
SPSPQ
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
826 PM CHST SAT MAY 19 2012
PMZ172-200200-
CHUUK-
826 PM CHST SAT MAY 19 2012
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AFFECTING CHUUK STATE...
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF WENO ISLAND IN
CHUUK STATE NEAR 9N AND 152E AT 800 PM CHST. THE POORLY DEFINED
CENTER WAS ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF WENO ISLAND AND THE CHUUK
AIRPORT. THE DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST.
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PERSISTED
ACROSS CHUUK STATE. RAIN IN THESE AREAS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...
WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES ACCUMULATING ON SOME ATOLLS NORTH OF CHUUK LAGOON
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS MAY ALSO INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION COULD BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO SOME FLOODING ON ISLANDS INSIDE CHUUK LAGOON.
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUD SLIDES...
BUT MUD SLIDE POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED DURING THE EVENT.
OPEN-OCEAN SEAS ACROSS CHUUK STATE ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6
FEET DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND HAZARDOUS SURF IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OUTSIDE THE LAGOON IS NOT RECOMMENDED AT THIS
TIME. RESIDENTS OF CHUUK STATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND CHECK WITH THEIR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE BEFORE ATTEMPTING SUCH TRAVEL. KEEP ALERT FOR ANY LATER
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
$$
MCELROY/SIMPSON/GUARD
WWPQ80 PGUM 191026
SPSPQ
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
826 PM CHST SAT MAY 19 2012
PMZ172-200200-
CHUUK-
826 PM CHST SAT MAY 19 2012
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AFFECTING CHUUK STATE...
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF WENO ISLAND IN
CHUUK STATE NEAR 9N AND 152E AT 800 PM CHST. THE POORLY DEFINED
CENTER WAS ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF WENO ISLAND AND THE CHUUK
AIRPORT. THE DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST.
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PERSISTED
ACROSS CHUUK STATE. RAIN IN THESE AREAS WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES...
WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES ACCUMULATING ON SOME ATOLLS NORTH OF CHUUK LAGOON
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS MAY ALSO INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION COULD BE
HIGH ENOUGH TO SOME FLOODING ON ISLANDS INSIDE CHUUK LAGOON.
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUD SLIDES...
BUT MUD SLIDE POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED DURING THE EVENT.
OPEN-OCEAN SEAS ACROSS CHUUK STATE ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 4 TO 6
FEET DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND HAZARDOUS SURF IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OUTSIDE THE LAGOON IS NOT RECOMMENDED AT THIS
TIME. RESIDENTS OF CHUUK STATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND CHECK WITH THEIR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE BEFORE ATTEMPTING SUCH TRAVEL. KEEP ALERT FOR ANY LATER
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
$$
MCELROY/SIMPSON/GUARD
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NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
soon to be 3rd tropical cyclone?
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NWS for the Western Pacific
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NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139067
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
Remains at Medium.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N
150.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 151.2E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARPLY TURNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD LINE WRAPPING INTO
THE SUSPECTED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST. A 190224Z OSCAT PARTIAL PASS INDICATES 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. A 190336Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONTAINED IN THE LARGE BAND TO THE SOUTH AND A
RELATIVELY DRIER UPPER-LEVEL AIRMASS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER GUAM.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL OVER GUAM PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, A TUTT CELL RESIDES NEAR THE
DATELINE WHICH IS ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE LLCC ITSELF IS
UNDER AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS WEAK TO MODERATE AT 10-15 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N
150.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 151.2E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARPLY TURNING CONVECTIVE CLOUD LINE WRAPPING INTO
THE SUSPECTED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST. A 190224Z OSCAT PARTIAL PASS INDICATES 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. A 190336Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONTAINED IN THE LARGE BAND TO THE SOUTH AND A
RELATIVELY DRIER UPPER-LEVEL AIRMASS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER GUAM.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEAL A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL OVER GUAM PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE NEAR THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, A TUTT CELL RESIDES NEAR THE
DATELINE WHICH IS ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE LLCC ITSELF IS
UNDER AN EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS WEAK TO MODERATE AT 10-15 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
000
WWMY80 PGUM 192035
SPSMY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
635 AM CHST SUN MAY 20 2012
GUZ001>004-202100-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
635 AM CHST SUN MAY 20 2012
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO BRING RAIN TO THE MARIANAS...
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
NEAR 9.1 DEGREES NORTH AND 150.6 DEGREES EAST IS EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MARIANAS
THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REGION.
WHILE THE FUTURE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...IT APPEARS LIKELY IT WILL PASS NEAR ENOUGH TO THE
MARIANAS TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH POSSIBLE IN HEAVY SHOWERS.
RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. FASTER-THAN-EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT COULD RESULT
IN MORE WIND AND RAIN THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...OR EVEN IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. LISTEN FOR THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
$$
ZIOBRO
WWMY80 PGUM 192035
SPSMY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
635 AM CHST SUN MAY 20 2012
GUZ001>004-202100-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
635 AM CHST SUN MAY 20 2012
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO BRING RAIN TO THE MARIANAS...
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
NEAR 9.1 DEGREES NORTH AND 150.6 DEGREES EAST IS EXPECTED TO BRING
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MARIANAS
THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REGION.
WHILE THE FUTURE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...IT APPEARS LIKELY IT WILL PASS NEAR ENOUGH TO THE
MARIANAS TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH POSSIBLE IN HEAVY SHOWERS.
RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. FASTER-THAN-EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT COULD RESULT
IN MORE WIND AND RAIN THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...OR EVEN IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. LISTEN FOR THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
$$
ZIOBRO
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZMAY2012//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3N
151.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 149.8E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH MULTIPLE, WEAKER MESOVORTICES SPIRALING CYCLONICALLY AROUND
THE PERIPHERIES. THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENT CHARACTERISTICS ABOUT
THIS DISTURBANCE THAT RESEMBLES THAT OF A MONSOON GYRE. THE FIRST
IS THE "FISH HOOK" APPEARANCE OF THE CONVECTION IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE CONCENTRATION OF DEEPEST CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. THE GFS SLP FIELDS SHOW AN
APPROXIMATELY 1,260 NM WIDE OUTER MOST CLOSED ISOBAR, ALSO
INDICATIVE OF A GYRE CIRCULATION. THIRDLY, THE MONSOON TROUGH SEEMS
TO BE DISPLACED NORTHWARD FROM ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION.
FINALLY, A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGING, SEPARATES THE GYRE FROM THE MONSOON
TROUGHING OVER SOUTHERN ASIA. A 200008Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A LARGE
GENERAL CIRCULATION WITH SHARP CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY. A 200326Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTED THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL NORTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. THIS TUTT SEEMS TO
BE PROVIDING UPSTREAM SUBSIDENCE AND PERHAPS AIDING IN THE LACK OF
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR (VWS) IS WEAK TO MODERATE AT 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE LLCC
BUT A TONGUE OF STRONGER (20 KNOT) VWS RESIDES IN BETWEEN GUAM AND
THE DISTURBANCE FROM THE TUTT CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA. HOWEVER,
OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT TO THE EAST REMAINS GOOD. 850 MB VORTICITY
ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO MAIN LOBES; ONE OVER THE SUSPECTED LLCC AND
ANOTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST A MESOVORTICE FROM
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT MAY BREAK OFF AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
huge burst of convection with a very large system
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZMAY2012//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3N
151.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 149.8E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH MULTIPLE, WEAKER MESOVORTICES SPIRALING CYCLONICALLY AROUND
THE PERIPHERIES. THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENT CHARACTERISTICS ABOUT
THIS DISTURBANCE THAT RESEMBLES THAT OF A MONSOON GYRE. THE FIRST
IS THE "FISH HOOK" APPEARANCE OF THE CONVECTION IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE CONCENTRATION OF DEEPEST CONVECTION OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. THE GFS SLP FIELDS SHOW AN
APPROXIMATELY 1,260 NM WIDE OUTER MOST CLOSED ISOBAR, ALSO
INDICATIVE OF A GYRE CIRCULATION. THIRDLY, THE MONSOON TROUGH SEEMS
TO BE DISPLACED NORTHWARD FROM ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION.
FINALLY, A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGING, SEPARATES THE GYRE FROM THE MONSOON
TROUGHING OVER SOUTHERN ASIA. A 200008Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A LARGE
GENERAL CIRCULATION WITH SHARP CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY. A 200326Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTED THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL NORTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE. THIS TUTT SEEMS TO
BE PROVIDING UPSTREAM SUBSIDENCE AND PERHAPS AIDING IN THE LACK OF
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR (VWS) IS WEAK TO MODERATE AT 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE LLCC
BUT A TONGUE OF STRONGER (20 KNOT) VWS RESIDES IN BETWEEN GUAM AND
THE DISTURBANCE FROM THE TUTT CONVERGENCE IN THE AREA. HOWEVER,
OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT TO THE EAST REMAINS GOOD. 850 MB VORTICITY
ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO MAIN LOBES; ONE OVER THE SUSPECTED LLCC AND
ANOTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST A MESOVORTICE FROM
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT MAY BREAK OFF AND POSSIBLY DEVELOP. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
huge burst of convection with a very large system
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139067
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1N 147.1E TO 15.8N 142.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 201800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N 146.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4N
149.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 146.5E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE IR AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATE AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. A
201113Z ASCAT PASS DOES NOT DEPICT A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, IT
DOES INDICATE AN AREA OF SHARP TURING EXTENDING FROM A BROADER
SURFACE TROUGH. HIGHER WINDS (20 TO 30 KNOTS) ARE ALSO EVIDENT ON
THE OUTER NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE WEST. NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE LLCC WILL CLOSE OFF AND ORGANIZE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT AND THE IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1N 147.1E TO 15.8N 142.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 201800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N 146.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4N
149.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 146.5E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE IR AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATE AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. A
201113Z ASCAT PASS DOES NOT DEPICT A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, IT
DOES INDICATE AN AREA OF SHARP TURING EXTENDING FROM A BROADER
SURFACE TROUGH. HIGHER WINDS (20 TO 30 KNOTS) ARE ALSO EVIDENT ON
THE OUTER NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE WEST. NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE LLCC WILL CLOSE OFF AND ORGANIZE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING DEVELOPMENT AND THE IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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- StormingB81
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5676
- Age: 42
- Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
- Location: Rockledge, Florida
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- Category 5
- Posts: 3406
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: INVEST 94W
and i thought we're having a month without incident this May. Up for the 3rd Tropical Depression of the season.
WTPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 10.8N 145.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 145.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 12.3N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 13.9N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 15.6N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.2N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 21.4N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.3N 146.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 29.6N 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 145.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 201951Z MAY 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 202000) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 9
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.//
NNNN
WTPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 10.8N 145.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 145.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 12.3N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 13.9N 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 15.6N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.2N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 21.4N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 25.3N 146.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 29.6N 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 145.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 201951Z MAY 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 202000) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 9
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.//
NNNN
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: 03W - Tropical Depression
its been raining all day here on guam and more is expected as 03W passes south and west of guam.
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 210933
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032012
800 PM CHST MON MAY 21 2012
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W FORMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 145.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
165 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
200 MILES SOUTH OF ROTA
260 MILES SOUTH OF TINIAN AND
270 MILES SOUTH OF SAIPAN.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH AND
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
REPEATING THE 700 PM POSITION...11.2 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
145.6 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT 2 AM CHST.
$$
WILLIAMS
000
WWMY80 PGUM 211107
SPSMY
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
907 PM CHST MON MAY 21 2012
GUZ001>004-212300-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
907 PM CHST MON MAY 21 2012
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W FORMS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT WAS FORMERLY THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT HAS JUST BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 03W BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THE POORLY-
DEFINED CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W WAS LOCATED
ABOUT 165 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM NEAR LATITUDE 11.2 DEGREES
NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.6 DEGREES EAST AND MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS POSITION IS SOUTHEAST OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATED
POSITION AS THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A CONSOLIDATION
ABOUT A NEW CIRCULATION CENTER FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE MOVING TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST AND PASSING WELL WEST OF SAIPAN TUESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 35 MPH
INITIALLY FOR GUAM AND LATER FOR THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS OF THE CNMI
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANAS SHOULD CONTINUE MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM FOR ANY FURTHER THAN EXPECTED INTENSIFICATION. LISTEN
FOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
$$
EDSON/MCELROY
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139067
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: 03W - Tropical Depression
WTPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 11.2N 145.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 145.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 12.8N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 14.4N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.1N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.7N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.0N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.3N 146.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 31.0N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 144.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM SOUTH OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z
IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 11.2N 145.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N 145.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 12.8N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 14.4N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.1N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.7N 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.0N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 26.3N 146.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 31.0N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 144.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM SOUTH OF
ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z
IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.//
NNNN
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