WPAC: SANVU - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: SANVU - Tropical Storm

#61 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 23, 2012 11:18 pm

Image

indeed our 2nd typhoon per 1 minute is here...i would agree with JTWC's 65 knots based on that eye...

WTPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (SANVU) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 18.7N 139.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 139.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.2N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.8N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 22.8N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 24.2N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 27.3N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 31.0N 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 139.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 03W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND
250300Z.
//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SANVU - Tropical Storm

#62 Postby euro6208 » Wed May 23, 2012 11:21 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W (SANVU) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 03W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT THE PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION 12 HOURS AGO HAS LEVELED OFF,
WITH SLIGHTLY LESS DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE MICROWAVE EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 242026Z SSMIS MICROWAVE EYE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS HELD AT 65 KNOTS, BASED ON THE
KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 03W IS DIRECTLY UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 15 KNOTS) SOUTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST IS ENHANCING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH WAS VERY ROBUST SIX
HOURS AGO, HAS STEADILY DECREASED. TY 03W IS NOW TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THE
FAVORABLE VWS, FAIR OVERALL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) OF 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. IN VIEW OF THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE, TY 03W
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE STEERING STR AND BEGINS TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE STRONG WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL PROVIDE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PRIOR TO AND
IMMEDIATELY AFTER RECURVATURE. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHT VWS AND WARM SST,
WILL FUEL THE INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36, AFTER WHICH INCREASING
VWS AND A SHARP DROP IN SST WILL RESULT IN A RAPID DISSIPATION OF TY
03W.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 03W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN
INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, LOCATED POLEWARD OF 30 DEGREES
NORTH DUE TO A VERY ZONAL SUBTROPICAL JET. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND BE COMPLETELY EMBEDDED INTO THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY PACKED WITH EGRR REMAINING THE SOLE EXCEPTION, WITH A LEFT
OF CONSENSUS DEFLECTION. THIS TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO
MODEL CONSENSUS (CONW), BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONW AFTER TAU 48.
THIS IS TO ACCOUNT FOR EGRR'S UNLIKELY LEFTWARD MOTION AND FOR THE
KNOWN TENDENCY OF MODELS TO SLOW DOWN DURING RECURVATURE. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK BASED ON MINIMAL SPREAD IN THE
DYNAMIC AID GUIDANCE AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.//
NNNN

Image

passing very close to iwo to...

Image

intensifying somemore?
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Re: WPAC: SANVU - Tropical Storm

#63 Postby euro6208 » Thu May 24, 2012 12:53 am

Image

getting better organized...i would place the intensity at 75 knots 1 minute...lets see what jtwc says...
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#64 Postby Chacor » Thu May 24, 2012 4:55 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 240900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1202 SANVU (1202)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240900UTC 20.0N 139.2E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 170NM NORTHEAST 130NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 250900UTC 22.5N 139.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 260600UTC 24.1N 141.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 270600UTC 26.4N 144.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =
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Re: WPAC: SANVU - Tropical Storm

#65 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 24, 2012 8:34 am

WTPQ50 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1202 SANVU (1202)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 20.7N 139.2E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 170NM NORTHEAST 130NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 23.1N 140.2E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 261200UTC 25.3N 143.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 271200UTC 28.3N 147.4E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 281200UTC 32.6N 152.0E 350NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
120HF 291200UTC 38.2N 161.1E 450NM 70%
MOVE NE 23KT =
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Re: WPAC: SANVU - Tropical Storm

#66 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Thu May 24, 2012 8:49 am

Yet again it appears JMA seem to be hopelessly underestimating the strength of a tropical cyclone with current warning of Sanvu at 45kts. Meanwhile current Dvorak...

734
TPPN10 PGTW 241221

A. TYPHOON 03W (SANVU)

B. 24/1132Z

C. 20.8N

D. 138.7E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS
A CF OF 4.5. MET YIELDS A 4.0 AS THE STORM HAS DEVELOPED SLOWLY
IN THE PAST 24HRS BASED ON THE 24HR FT. PT AGREES. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/0634Z 19.9N 139.0E SSMI
24/0740Z 20.1N 138.9E SSMS


LANZETTA

-------------------------
608
TXPQ26 KNES 240948
TCSWNP

A. 03W (SANVU)

B. 24/0832Z

C. 20.2N

D. 139.0E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...STORM SHOWS GOOD LL ORGANIZATION IN VISIBLE IMAGERY BUT
DEEP CONVECTION IS LACKING IN IR IMAGERY. CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN MG FOR
A DT OF 4.0. MET IS 3.0 AND PT IS 3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ
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#67 Postby Chacor » Thu May 24, 2012 9:15 am

At T4.0 consensus I'd expect to see JMA at 60 kt. That's fairly poor.
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Re: WPAC: SANVU - Tropical Storm

#68 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 24, 2012 2:44 pm

JMA upgrades to Severe Tropical Storm.

WTPQ50 RJTD 241800 CCA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1202 SANVU (1202) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 21.6N 139.0E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 170NM NORTHEAST 130NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 23.7N 140.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 261800UTC 25.6N 143.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 271800UTC 28.8N 148.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 281800UTC 33.7N 154.5E 350NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT
120HF 291800UTC 38.7N 161.5E 450NM 70%
MOVE NE 19KT =
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Re: WPAC: SANVU - Severe Tropical Storm

#69 Postby euro6208 » Thu May 24, 2012 8:16 pm

Strengthens to 70 knots...

WTPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (SANVU) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 21.4N 138.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 138.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.6N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.7N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 24.8N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 26.2N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 30.1N 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 138.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 03W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTHWEST OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.//
NNNN

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W (SANVU) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 03W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTHWEST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH THINNING CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 241701Z 89 GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTING A MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS, AND THE MORE POLEWARD MOTION APPARENT IN
ANIMATED IR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10-
15 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT TY 03W HAS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING AROUND THE RIDGE AS IT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, TY 03W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR AND REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER
TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES,
AND A SHARP DROP IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NEAR TAU 48, TY 03W
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND BY TAU 72 THE
SYSTEM WILL BECOME COMPLETELY EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY
FLOW AS A GALE FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED, TO INCLUDE EGRR WHICH HAS NOW COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. NOGAPS CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM
WELL AHEAD OF THE OTHER CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THE OFFICIAL JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR
EXCESSIVE ACCELERATION BY NGPS, BUT OVERALL, IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK BASED ON MINIMAL SPREAD IN THE DYNAMIC AIDS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SANVU - Severe Tropical Storm

#70 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 24, 2012 8:17 pm

WTPQ50 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1202 SANVU (1202)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 22.2N 139.2E FAIR
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 170NM NORTHEAST 130NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 260000UTC 24.4N 141.4E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 270000UTC 26.5N 144.7E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 280000UTC 30.4N 149.6E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 290000UTC 35.2N 155.0E 350NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
120HF 300000UTC 40.1N 161.8E 450NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT =
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Re: WPAC: SANVU - Severe Tropical Storm

#71 Postby euro6208 » Thu May 24, 2012 8:30 pm

Image

TXPQ26 KNES 242113
TCSWNP

A. 03W (SANVU)

B. 24/2032Z

C. 21.8N

D. 138.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI

H. REMARKS...POORLY DEFINED OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN DG AND SURROUNDED BY
LG RESULTING IN A DT OF 4.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

24/1905Z 21.7N 138.8E SSMI


...TURK

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 975.2mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.9 5.1

looks like JTWC will increase the winds to 80 knots 1 minute in the next warning...

its twins in the pacific


Image

perfect agreement for a recurve
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Re: WPAC: SANVU - Severe Tropical Storm

#72 Postby dexterlabio » Thu May 24, 2012 9:33 pm

yeah JMA is the official agency in WPAC but i must say that Sanvu is a typhoon and they are underestimating a storm once again. this should at least be 65kts on 10-min average.






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Re: WPAC: SANVU - Severe Tropical Storm

#73 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Thu May 24, 2012 9:53 pm

Yup, JTWC up to 80kts now (1 min.) whilst JMA have it at 55kts (10 min.)

I think from now on I'm going to totally ignore JMA's intensity warnings / forecasts since they seem to operate in their own world totally isolated from reality!
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Re: WPAC: SANVU - Severe Tropical Storm

#74 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 25, 2012 12:05 am

Typhoon Hunter wrote:Yup, JTWC up to 80kts now (1 min.) whilst JMA have it at 55kts (10 min.)

I think from now on I'm going to totally ignore JMA's intensity warnings / forecasts since they seem to operate in their own world totally isolated from reality!


we must remember that JMA is the official agency but the problem with them is that they use 10 min winds unlike JTWC and NHC uses 1 minute...
Last edited by euro6208 on Fri May 25, 2012 8:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: SANVU - Severe Tropical Storm

#75 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 25, 2012 12:08 am

Image

Image

wow the eye is clearing out on IR and VIS loop...its so impressive now..sanvu is clearly stronger than 80 knots warning intensity released hours ago...

kinda weird that bud is at 100 knots major status with no eye present but sanvu has an eye but lower in intensity :roll:
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Re: WPAC: SANVU - Severe Tropical Storm

#76 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 25, 2012 12:16 am

80 knots

WTPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (SANVU) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 22.2N 139.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2N 139.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 23.6N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 24.9N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 26.2N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 27.6N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 31.7N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 139.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 03W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHWEST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W (SANVU) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 03W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHWEST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
INDICATES THAT TY 03W HAS DEVELOPED A RAGGED, CLOUD FILLED EYE. A
WELL DEVELOPED MICROWAVE EYE IS STILL EVIDENT IN A 37 GHZ 242013Z
SSMIS PASS AND THE CONCURRENT 91 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING AROUND 75 PERCENT OF THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE IN
MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON AGREEABLE DVORAK
FIXES FROM KNES AND PGTW AT 25/00Z. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AROUND THE
SYSTEM SHOWS LOW TO MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH
STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SOMEWHAT INHIBITED OUTFLOW TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST AS TY 03W BEGINS TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TY SANVU HAS STARTED TO RE-CURVE AND
ACCELERATE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 03W MAY STILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUES
TO TRACK OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). AFTER TAU 12, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A STEEP DROP OFF IN SST. BETWEEN
TAU 36 AND TAU 48, TY 03W WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE, AND BY TAU 72 THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME COMPLETELY EMBEDDED IN
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AS A GALE FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW.
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED AND NOGAPS
ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS FOR THE LATER TAUS HAVE COME MORE IN LINE WITH
OTHER CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF
THE JTWC TRACK AND MINIMAL SPREAD IN THE DYNAMIC AIDS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SANVU - Severe Tropical Storm

#77 Postby euro6208 » Fri May 25, 2012 12:28 am

a storm with an eye this large should get a high dvorak number but it seems like the numbers are too low because of its *weak* looking convection...

TXPQ26 KNES 250349
TCSWNP

A. 03W (SANVU)

B. 25/0232Z

C. 22.7N

D. 139.4E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...EYE TECHNIQUE USED. SYSTEM NOW HAS A LARGE EYE MADE UP OF OW
PIXELS SURROUNDED BY MG EMBEDDED IN OW. THE EYE IS ALSO ELONGATED. EYE
NUMBER IS 4.0 WITH NO ADJUSTMENT MADE FOR A DT OF 4.0. MET AND PT
AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

25/0000Z 22.5N 139.2E AMSU


...RAMIREZ
Last edited by euro6208 on Fri May 25, 2012 8:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: SANVU - Severe Tropical Storm

#78 Postby Typhoon Hunter » Fri May 25, 2012 3:54 am

euro6208 wrote:
Typhoon Hunter wrote:Yup, JTWC up to 80kts now (1 min.) whilst JMA have it at 55kts (10 min.)

I think from now on I'm going to totally ignore JMA's intensity warnings / forecasts since they seem to operate in their own world totally isolated from reality!


we must remember that JMA is the official agency but the problem with them is that they use 10 min winds unlike JTWC and JMA uses 1 minute...


The problem isn't 10 min wind speeds vs 1 min wind speeds, the difference is only about 12% thus JMA are warning Muifa at 62kt 1 min. It's purely a difference of system / opinion, and as we've seen so regularly in the past JMA just stick to their rigid Dvorak scale despite the reality that's unfolding out there in the Wpac.

Damn I wish we just had another ITOP typhoon recon mission based out here since it would clean up this mess once and for all. There's no way JMA would have warned Megi at 125kts (and that was conservative) were it not for recon, prob 115kts max.

Does anyone here really believe Sanvu's not been stronger than 62ks 1 min? Sorry for the rant but illogical issues like this wind me up!
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#79 Postby Chacor » Fri May 25, 2012 5:06 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 250900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1202 SANVU (1202)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250900UTC 23.4N 139.8E FAIR
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 170NM NORTHEAST 130NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 260900UTC 25.2N 142.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 270600UTC 27.5N 146.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 280600UTC 31.8N 151.4E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

No way this is still 55 kt, really.
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#80 Postby Chacor » Fri May 25, 2012 8:33 am

Up a little...

WTPQ20 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1202 SANVU (1202)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251200UTC 23.7N 139.9E FAIR
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 170NM NORTHEAST 130NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 261200UTC 25.5N 142.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 271200UTC 28.5N 146.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 281200UTC 33.0N 152.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =
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