WPAC: SANVU - Post-Tropical

[yulou]

it's generally acknowledge that JMA is "conservative" than BOM....Unless there are credible measured wind speed data
for example,JMA's 105kt is equal in JTWC's 140kt

[yulou]

ZCZC
WTPQ20 BABJ 251200 CCA
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY SANVU 1202 (1202) INITIAL TIME 251200 UTC
00HR 23.8N 140.0E 970HPA 35M/S
30KTS 260KM
50KTS 100KM
P12HR NE 20KM/H
P+24HR 26.4N 143.5E 982HPA 28M/S
P+48HR 29.7N 148.6E 990HPA 23M/S
P+72HR 34.5N 160.5E 999HPA 16M/S=
NNNN
___________________
ZCZC
TCPQ40 BABJ 251200
CCAA 25120 99398 11165
SANVU 02237 11400 12234 250// 90208=
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

over Talas of last year, Sanvu is clearly the typhoon, even at 10-min average... especially several hours ago. It looks like Sanvu is on its way down at this point though.

[cycloneye]

WTPQ50 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1202 SANVU (1202)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251800UTC 24.1N 140.4E FAIR
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 170NM EAST 130NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 261800UTC 26.2N 143.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 271800UTC 30.2N 148.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 281800UTC 34.6N 156.8E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW

[phwxenthusiast]

well at least they (JMA) upped it to 60kts lol... wouldn't it be funny if Iwo Jima or Chichi-Jima reported higher sustained winds than what JMA has it now lol...

btw, Iwo Jima reporting 53G71KT the last hour...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Iwo To / Jima right in the eye of typhoon Sanvu now, great sat pic (wish I was there supping on Miso soup for breakfast!)



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[euro6208]

75 knots a few hours ago...

WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (SANVU) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 24.1N 140.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1N 140.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 25.3N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 26.7N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 28.6N 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 30.9N 151.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 34.6N 160.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 24.4N 141.1E.
TYPHOON 03W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM SOUTHWEST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z
IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND
262100Z.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W (SANVU) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 03W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM SOUTHWEST OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 251650Z AMSU
IMAGE INDICATE SLIGHT EROSION OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
QUADRANT DUE TO WEAK TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE; HOWEVER, TY O3W HAS
MAINTAINED TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AND A 20 NM RAGGED EYE DUE TO THE
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT IS BEGINNING TO PUSH OVER IWO TO AND IS PRODUCING (25/2012Z)
SOUTHEASTERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 63 KNOTS AND
SLP NEAR 989 MB. BASED ON THE EYE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS. TY SANVU
IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. TRACK SPEEDS HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY SLOW DUE TO THE
ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT CURRENTLY
NORTH OF 30N. THIS IS EVIDENCED ON THE 25/12Z CHICHI JIMA (27N 142E)
SOUNDING SHOWING MAXIMUM WESTERLY WINDS OF ONLY 35 KNOTS AT 200 MB.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT MODERATE SPEEDS THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU
24, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO
STRENGTHENING MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING STRONG VWS,
OVER COOLER SST (LESS THAN 25C), AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT). TY 03W IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72 AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TRANSITIONS INTO A
STORM-FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. DUE TO THE TIGHT CLUSTER OF DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE (158 NM SPREAD AT TAU 72) INCLUDING ENSEMBLE DATA, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN



looks like a direct hit

TXPQ26 KNES 252132
TCSWNP

A. 03W (SANVU)

B. 25/2032Z

C. 24.2N

D. 140.8E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...03W HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HRS HOWEVER
IT STILL POSSESSES A LARGE/RAGGED EYE. OW EYE EMBEDDED IN DG SURROUNDED
BY MG YIELDS A DT OF 4.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GUILLOT

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 965.7mb/ 82.2kt

[euro6208]

i would estimate the intensity of sanvu right now at 85 knots 1 min winds...lets see what jtwc has to say...








The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Link to hourly obs from Iwo Jima airfield - http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/RJAW.html

[euro6208]

remains at 75 knots



WTPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 03W (SANVU) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 24.7N 141.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7N 141.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 26.0N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 27.5N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 29.5N 149.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 31.7N 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 25.0N 141.8E.
TYPHOON 03W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03W (SANVU) WARNING NR 20//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 03W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 252333Z SSMIS IMAGE CONTINUE TO INDICATE
WEAKENING ORGANIZATION WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NOW
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AS A RESULT OF THE PERSISTENT
WEAK TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ADDITIONALLY, MSI AND THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER LOOP SHOW DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE THAT
MAY ALSO BE HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION FORMATION. DESPITE THE
WEAKENING CONVECTION, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A RAGGED 20 NM EYE,
WHICH IS POSITIONED OVER IWO TO. AT 25/22Z SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
PEAKED AT 54 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 83 KNOTS BUT HAVE SINCE DECREASED
RAPIDLY TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WHILE SLP HAS BOTTOMED OUT AT 978 MB.
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEAST
OF IWO TO. BASED ON THE EYE AND THE 252333Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE, THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
75 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW AND
KNES. TY SANVU IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TRACK SPEEDS HAVE REMAINED
RELATIVELY SLOW DUE TO THE ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH THE
TIGHT GRADIENT CURRENTLY NORTH OF 30N. THIS IS EVIDENCED ON THE
25/12Z CHICHI JIMA (27N 142E) SOUNDING SHOWING MAXIMUM WESTERLY WINDS
OF ONLY 35 KNOTS AT 200 MB.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT MODERATE SPEEDS THROUGH TAU 24. NEAR TAU 24,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO
STRENGTHENING MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING STRONG VWS,
OVER COOLER SST (LESS THAN 25C), AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT). TY 03W IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TRANSITIONS INTO A
STORM-FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. DUE TO THE TIGHT CLUSTER OF DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE (135 NM SPREAD AT TAU 48) INCLUDING ENSEMBLE DATA, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN



000
WTPQ31 PGUM 260252 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON SANVU (03W) ADVISORY NUMBER 20...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP032012
200 PM CHST SAT MAY 26 2012

CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER

...EYE OF TYPHOON SANVU PASSING BY IWO TO ISLAND...

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON SANVU WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.8 DEGREES EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT
35 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO TO
730 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND
820 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM.

TYPHOON SANVU IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. SANVU IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 MPH. SANVU IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 165 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP
TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...25.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
141.8 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 MPH.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE GUAM FOR THIS SYSTEM. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON TYPHOON
SANVU REFER TO WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
AT WTPN31 PGTW OR BY THE JMA AT WTJP21 RJTD.

$$

EDSON

[Chacor]

Looks like the strongest winds recorded at Iwoto at 22z were 62 mph (54 knots) 10-min.

[euro6208]

our typhoons are large but sanvu is small...

[cycloneye]

Chacor,what happened with JMA that didn't update at 00:00z?

[Chacor]

They did, here's the 0300z:

WTPQ20 RJTD 260300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1202 SANVU (1202)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260300UTC 24.8N 141.6E GOOD
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 170NM EAST 130NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 270300UTC 26.8N 145.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 280000UTC 30.8N 150.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 290000UTC 35.1N 156.9E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[KWT]

Looked decent on that above sat imagery!

That being said it is small and the cloud shield doesn't look too deep either.

[cycloneye]

They did, here's the 0300z:

WTPQ20 RJTD 260300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1202 SANVU (1202)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260300UTC 24.8N 141.6E GOOD
MOVE ENE 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 170NM EAST 130NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 270300UTC 26.8N 145.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 280000UTC 30.8N 150.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 290000UTC 35.1N 156.9E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

I have this link but is not working.


http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt ... .rjtd..txt

[Chacor]

They're no longer issuing 5-day forecasts as the storm is forecast to no longer be a TC in that timeframe. Use wtpq20.rjtd instead.

[cycloneye]

WTPQ20 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1202 SANVU (1202)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261200UTC 25.1N 143.5E GOOD
MOVE E 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 170NM EAST 130NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 271200UTC 28.5N 147.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 281200UTC 32.4N 154.0E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 291200UTC 35.4N 160.8E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[yulou]

Iwojima
sustained wind 100km/h,gust 153km/s,SLP 978mb
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/47981.html

now sanvu is weaking,will sanvu be "annular typhoon"?
It was a pity that the zonal circulation is too high,if the zonal circulation was low,sanvu might be C2.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1202 SANVU (1202) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 26.7N 145.1E FAIR
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 160NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 280000UTC 30.5N 149.9E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 16KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 290000UTC 34.8N 155.4E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =