ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[wxman57]

At 150nm from JAX, the center of the radar beam is at a bit over 24,000 ft. Note the higher clouds starting to point to the NE-ENE, indicating that shear is now on the increase and pointing out its future track.

[Aric Dunn]

At 150nm from JAX, the center of the radar beam is at a bit over 24,000 ft. Note the higher clouds starting to point to the NE-ENE, indicating that shear is now on the increase and pointing out its future track.

yep its on the move. but it will also be moving in the same direction as the shear.

[ozonepete]

Sure looks pretty good right now. Pretty big hot towers going off near the center.

[SouthDadeFish]

Interesting eyewall-like radar signature:

[ozonepete]

Is that the donut you were talking about, Aric?

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: Is that the donut you were talking about, Aric?

yep

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
1100 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

...ALBERTO NOW HEADED EASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 78.8W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST. ALBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALBERTO IS EXPECTED
TO STAY OFFSHORE OF THE GEORGIA AND CAROLINA COASTS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR
FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
STORM LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND
SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012
1100 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

ALBERTO CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE CLOUD
PATTERN OF THE STORM IS BEGINNING TO BECOME ELONGATED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF INCREASING SHEAR. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH
DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUE. AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE
STRENGTH OF ALBERTO. GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THIS...ALONG WITH DRY
AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATION IN 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM
GUIDANCE. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT ALBERTO COULD BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE EAST...AND THE MOTION IS
NOW ABOUT 090/6. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST AND
REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE WEST OF ALBERTO SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK AND ROUGHLY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS TRACK KEEPS THE SMALL
CYCLONE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 30.4N 78.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 31.0N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 32.5N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 34.3N 73.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 36.3N 70.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[tolakram]

I suspect the mid level is being pushed to the NE by shear. I wonder just how favorable an environment this is?

[wxman57]

6Z GFS has SW winds aloft up to 30kts over Alberto by this afternoon and over 50 kts tonight. Probably won't be much left of it by this time tomorrow.

[gotoman38]

Mission is on the books for Tuesday as well now - so I guess that means today's mission should be a "go" shortly

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL70
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0301A ALBERTO
C. 22/1500Z
D. 33.5N 74.3W
E. 22/1700Z TO 22/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[gotoman38]

And we're on the runway

URNT15 KNHC 211538
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 01 20120521
153000 3025N 08855W 0175 ///// 0169 +295 +137 360000 000 /// /// 23
153030 3025N 08855W 0175 ///// 0169 +299 +136 360000 000 /// /// 23
153100 3025N 08855W 0175 ///// 0170 +304 +137 360000 000 /// /// 23
153130 3025N 08855W 0175 ///// 0172 +305 +141 360000 000 /// /// 23
153200 3025N 08855W 0175 ///// 0173 +301 +144 360000 000 /// /// 23
153230 3025N 08855W 0175 ///// 0173 +299 +144 360000 000 /// /// 23
153300 3025N 08855W 0174 ///// 0172 +297 +139 360000 000 /// /// 23
153330 3025N 08855W 0174 ///// 0173 +297 +138 360000 000 /// /// 23
153400 3025N 08855W 0174 ///// 0173 +297 +141 360000 000 /// /// 23
153430 3025N 08855W 0174 ///// 0173 +302 +145 360000 000 /// /// 23
153500 3025N 08855W 0174 ///// 0174 +305 +145 360000 000 /// /// 23
153530 3025N 08855W 0174 ///// 0173 +305 +138 360000 000 /// /// 23
153600 3025N 08855W 0174 ///// 0172 +301 +138 360000 000 /// /// 23
153630 3025N 08855W 0174 ///// 0172 +294 +136 360000 000 /// /// 23
153700 3025N 08855W 0174 ///// 0173 +297 +140 360000 000 /// /// 23
153730 3025N 08855W 0174 ///// 0173 +290 +136 360000 000 /// /// 23
153800 3025N 08855W 0174 ///// 0173 +285 +129 360000 000 /// /// 23
153830 3025N 08855W 0174 ///// 0174 +286 +133 360000 000 /// /// 23
153900 3025N 08855W 0174 00000 0174 +293 +140 360000 000 /// /// 03
153930 3025N 08855W 0172 ///// 0169 +304 +144 360000 000 /// /// 23
$$

[gotoman38]

AF307 is wheels up Keesler enroute Alberto

URNT15 KNHC 211548
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 02 20120521
154000 3025N 08855W 0172 ///// 0171 +291 +134 313001 000 /// /// 23
154030 3025N 08856W 0135 00021 0163 +278 +131 328006 008 /// /// 03
154100 3023N 08856W 9914 00224 0171 +257 +125 329010 011 /// /// 03
154130 3022N 08857W 9812 00327 0183 +245 +112 327012 013 /// /// 03
154200 3021N 08855W 9845 00299 0187 +249 +112 313009 011 /// /// 03
154230 3022N 08853W 9839 00305 0188 +249 +112 313006 007 010 000 03
154300 3023N 08852W 9579 00537 0186 +233 +089 323008 010 /// /// 03
154330 3024N 08850W 9178 00908 0188 +203 +080 332009 009 /// /// 03
154400 3025N 08849W 8755 01314 0193 +164 +105 350008 008 /// /// 03
154430 3026N 08847W 8351 01712 0199 +129 +092 003009 009 /// /// 03
154500 3027N 08846W 7966 02107 0203 +101 +037 355008 009 /// /// 03
154530 3028N 08845W 7626 02467 0202 +076 +012 360010 010 /// /// 03
154600 3029N 08843W 7325 02799 0207 +051 +013 002009 011 /// /// 03
154630 3030N 08842W 7032 03131 0205 +033 -021 004008 008 /// /// 03
154700 3032N 08840W 6797 03406 0201 +021 -099 342012 013 /// /// 03
154730 3033N 08838W 6543 03712 0182 +013 -135 342012 013 /// /// 03
154800 3034N 08837W 6313 03999 0177 -002 -116 344014 014 /// /// 03
154830 3035N 08835W 6113 04256 0182 -022 -114 324013 013 /// /// 03
154900 3036N 08833W 5902 04528 0180 -042 -117 321010 013 /// /// 03
154930 3037N 08832W 5699 04803 0182 -060 -145 315006 007 /// /// 03
$$

[gotoman38]

URNT15 KNHC 211558
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 03 20120521
155000 3038N 08830W 5542 05023 0181 -073 -169 285011 013 /// /// 03
155030 3039N 08828W 5403 05219 0222 -087 -172 285014 015 /// /// 03
155100 3040N 08826W 5229 05472 0230 -099 -220 297018 020 /// /// 03
155130 3042N 08825W 5082 05691 0239 -111 -238 300021 021 /// /// 03
155200 3043N 08823W 4953 05888 0245 -124 -274 306021 022 /// /// 03
155230 3044N 08821W 4818 06096 0251 -141 -274 306019 019 /// /// 03
155300 3044N 08818W 4687 06306 0259 -159 -283 304020 020 /// /// 03
155330 3044N 08816W 4577 06484 0264 -174 -287 307017 019 /// /// 03
155400 3044N 08814W 4465 06667 0270 -187 -297 304017 019 /// /// 03
155430 3044N 08811W 4367 06839 0279 -199 -321 300018 019 /// /// 03
155500 3044N 08809W 4273 06998 0284 -208 -340 305018 020 /// /// 03
155530 3045N 08806W 4187 07149 0289 -215 -377 302022 022 /// /// 03
155600 3045N 08804W 4111 07283 0293 -227 -423 301023 023 /// /// 03
155630 3045N 08801W 4091 07318 0296 -231 -437 303024 024 /// /// 03
155700 3045N 08758W 4095 07313 0297 -230 -433 303024 024 /// /// 03
155730 3045N 08755W 4098 07313 0300 -230 -430 301024 024 /// /// 03
155800 3045N 08752W 4098 07314 0302 -230 -432 299024 024 /// /// 03
155830 3046N 08749W 4098 07314 0302 -230 -439 297024 024 /// /// 03
155900 3046N 08746W 4099 07313 0303 -230 -445 297024 025 /// /// 03
155930 3046N 08743W 4099 07313 0303 -230 -448 297024 025 /// /// 03
$$

[gotoman38]

URNT15 KNHC 211608
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 04 20120521
160000 3046N 08740W 4098 07314 0303 -230 -451 297024 024 /// /// 03
160030 3046N 08737W 4098 07314 0303 -230 -458 298023 024 /// /// 03
160100 3047N 08734W 4095 07314 0300 -230 -464 300023 023 /// /// 03
160130 3047N 08730W 4098 07314 0303 -230 -467 301023 023 /// /// 03
160200 3047N 08727W 4099 07313 0303 -230 -466 302023 024 /// /// 03
160230 3047N 08724W 4099 07312 0302 -230 -465 300024 024 /// /// 03
160300 3047N 08721W 4099 07311 0301 -230 -463 298022 024 /// /// 03
160330 3047N 08718W 4099 07313 0302 -230 -404 290019 019 /// /// 03
160400 3048N 08715W 4099 07311 0301 -230 -360 279018 018 /// /// 03
160430 3048N 08711W 4099 07312 0301 -230 -343 275017 017 /// /// 03
160500 3048N 08708W 4098 07311 0298 -230 -377 278017 017 /// /// 03
160530 3048N 08705W 4099 07308 0299 -230 -378 283017 017 /// /// 03
160600 3048N 08702W 4099 07308 0298 -230 -373 284017 017 /// /// 03
160630 3049N 08659W 4099 07308 0298 -230 -387 285017 018 /// /// 03
160700 3049N 08656W 4098 07311 0298 -230 -345 286018 018 /// /// 03
160730 3049N 08653W 4099 07306 0297 -230 -347 285017 017 /// /// 03
160800 3049N 08650W 4099 07307 0297 -230 -326 281016 016 /// /// 03
160830 3049N 08647W 4098 07307 0297 -230 -324 279015 015 /// /// 03
160900 3049N 08644W 4098 07308 0296 -230 -332 279016 016 /// /// 03
160930 3050N 08641W 4099 07305 0295 -230 -329 282017 017 /// /// 03
$$

[gotoman38]

URNT15 KNHC 211618
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 05 20120521
161000 3049N 08638W 4099 07306 0295 -230 -325 281017 017 /// /// 03
161030 3049N 08635W 4098 07308 0296 -230 -337 280016 017 /// /// 03
161100 3049N 08631W 4099 07307 0297 -230 -337 287015 015 /// /// 03
161130 3049N 08628W 4098 07307 0296 -230 -340 285015 015 /// /// 03
161200 3049N 08625W 4099 07306 0296 -230 -350 283016 016 /// /// 03
161230 3049N 08622W 4099 07306 0295 -230 -350 281017 017 /// /// 03
161300 3049N 08619W 4099 07306 0295 -230 -350 282017 017 /// /// 03
161330 3049N 08616W 4099 07305 0295 -232 -353 296017 017 /// /// 03
161400 3049N 08613W 4098 07306 0295 -235 -332 303019 019 /// /// 03
161430 3049N 08610W 4099 07305 0295 -235 -340 302019 019 /// /// 03
161500 3049N 08607W 4098 07306 0295 -230 -360 298019 019 /// /// 03
161530 3049N 08604W 4099 07305 0295 -230 -373 297018 018 /// /// 03
161600 3049N 08601W 4101 07303 0295 -230 -373 303017 018 /// /// 03
161630 3049N 08558W 4098 07306 0294 -230 -390 301017 017 /// /// 03
161700 3049N 08555W 4099 07303 0293 -230 -404 304016 017 /// /// 03
161730 3049N 08552W 4099 07302 0292 -230 -418 305018 018 /// /// 03
161800 3049N 08548W 4099 07302 0291 -228 -405 310017 018 /// /// 03
161830 3048N 08545W 4098 07302 0291 -228 -417 310018 019 /// /// 03
161900 3048N 08542W 4099 07301 0291 -225 -413 309018 018 /// /// 03
161930 3048N 08539W 4099 07301 0291 -228 -418 307019 019 /// /// 03
$$

[wxman57]

There may not be much left of Alberto by the time recon gets there. It's blowing apart as wind shear increases rapidly.

[gotoman38]

URNT15 KNHC 211628
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 06 20120521
162000 3048N 08536W 4099 07300 0291 -227 -408 306018 019 /// /// 03
162030 3048N 08533W 4098 07302 0291 -230 -404 304019 020 /// /// 03
162100 3048N 08530W 4099 07301 0290 -229 -405 301020 020 /// /// 03
162130 3048N 08527W 4098 07302 0290 -225 -409 301020 020 /// /// 03
162200 3048N 08524W 4098 07301 0290 -225 -426 304020 020 /// /// 03
162230 3048N 08521W 4100 07298 0290 -225 -433 303019 020 /// /// 03
162300 3048N 08518W 4098 07300 0289 -225 -440 301018 018 /// /// 03
162330 3048N 08515W 4098 07301 0289 -225 -446 299018 018 /// /// 03
162400 3048N 08512W 4098 07301 0289 -225 -445 300018 018 /// /// 03
162430 3048N 08508W 4099 07298 0289 -225 -456 300018 018 /// /// 03
162500 3047N 08506W 4098 07300 0289 -225 -457 300019 019 /// /// 03
162530 3046N 08503W 4099 07298 0289 -225 -423 302020 020 /// /// 03
162600 3045N 08500W 4099 07300 0289 -230 -463 303020 021 /// /// 03
162630 3044N 08457W 4099 07298 0289 -230 -498 302022 022 /// /// 03
162700 3043N 08454W 4099 07301 0290 -230 -491 299022 022 /// /// 03
162730 3042N 08451W 4099 07300 0290 -230 -469 297022 023 /// /// 03
162800 3041N 08448W 4099 07298 0289 -230 -464 298023 023 /// /// 03
162830 3040N 08445W 4099 07297 0288 -230 -464 299024 024 /// /// 03
162900 3039N 08442W 4098 07298 0288 -230 -450 298025 025 /// /// 03
162930 3039N 08439W 4099 07300 0289 -230 -442 297024 025 /// /// 03
$$

[gotoman38]

URNT15 KNHC 211638
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 07 20120521
163000 3038N 08436W 4098 07300 0289 -230 -460 296023 023 /// /// 03
163030 3037N 08433W 4098 07300 0289 -230 -452 298023 023 /// /// 03
163100 3036N 08430W 4098 07300 0289 -230 -402 297023 024 /// /// 03
163130 3035N 08427W 4099 07298 0289 -230 -405 297024 024 /// /// 03
163200 3034N 08424W 4099 07297 0288 -230 -431 294024 024 /// /// 03
163230 3033N 08421W 4099 07297 0287 -230 -418 292023 024 /// /// 03
163300 3033N 08418W 4098 07298 0287 -230 -392 290022 022 /// /// 03
163330 3033N 08415W 4099 07297 0288 -230 -407 289022 022 /// /// 03
163400 3033N 08412W 4098 07301 0288 -230 -429 288022 022 /// /// 03
163430 3033N 08409W 4100 07296 0288 -230 -436 287021 022 /// /// 03
163500 3033N 08406W 4099 07298 0288 -230 -429 289021 021 /// /// 03
163530 3033N 08402W 4099 07298 0288 -230 -421 291021 021 /// /// 03
163600 3033N 08359W 4099 07298 0287 -230 -415 289020 021 /// /// 03
163630 3033N 08356W 4098 07297 0287 -230 -405 286020 020 /// /// 03
163700 3033N 08353W 4100 07296 0287 -230 -408 284018 019 /// /// 03
163730 3033N 08350W 4099 07297 0287 -230 -428 283017 017 /// /// 03
163800 3033N 08347W 4098 07297 0286 -232 -450 280017 018 /// /// 03
163830 3032N 08344W 4099 07295 0285 -230 -448 280018 019 /// /// 03
163900 3032N 08341W 4098 07297 0286 -230 -448 280018 018 /// /// 03
163930 3032N 08338W 4098 07297 0286 -230 -456 280019 019 /// /// 03
$$

[gotoman38]

URNT15 KNHC 211648
AF307 0201A ALBERTO HDOB 08 20120521
164000 3032N 08335W 4099 07296 0287 -226 -461 275018 019 /// /// 03
164030 3032N 08331W 4099 07296 0286 -225 -462 273019 019 /// /// 03
164100 3032N 08328W 4099 07296 0286 -227 -465 275019 019 /// /// 03
164130 3032N 08325W 4098 07297 0286 -230 -463 275019 020 /// /// 03
164200 3032N 08322W 4101 07293 0286 -232 -449 274018 020 /// /// 03
164230 3032N 08319W 4099 07295 0285 -235 -430 273017 017 /// /// 03
164300 3032N 08316W 4099 07296 0286 -240 -415 274017 018 /// /// 03
164330 3032N 08313W 4098 07298 0286 -242 -399 279018 018 /// /// 03
164400 3031N 08310W 4098 07296 0285 -245 -365 281019 019 /// /// 03
164430 3031N 08307W 4099 07296 0285 -241 -372 280018 019 /// /// 03
164500 3031N 08304W 4099 07293 0285 -238 -413 277018 018 /// /// 03
164530 3031N 08301W 4098 07297 0285 -240 -408 281020 021 /// /// 03
164600 3031N 08257W 4099 07296 0286 -240 -373 281020 021 /// /// 03
164630 3031N 08254W 4099 07296 0286 -238 -387 277018 019 /// /// 03
164700 3031N 08251W 4098 07296 0285 -235 -418 275018 018 /// /// 03
164730 3031N 08248W 4099 07295 0286 -235 -427 275019 019 /// /// 03
164800 3031N 08245W 4099 07296 0286 -235 -422 276019 019 /// /// 03
164830 3031N 08242W 4099 07296 0286 -235 -423 277019 019 /// /// 03
164900 3030N 08239W 4098 07297 0286 -235 -425 279018 018 /// /// 03
164930 3030N 08236W 4099 07295 0286 -235 -418 275017 018 /// /// 03
$$

[gotoman38]

000
URNT11 KNHC 211641
97779 16354 20305 84010 70100 29021 73921 /5748
RMK AF307 0201A ALBERTO OB 02
;