ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932012.invest
FSTDA
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201205191229
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2012, DB, O, 2012051912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932012
AL, 93, 2012051900, , BEST, 0, 330N, 769W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012051906, , BEST, 0, 329N, 771W, 30, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2012051912, , BEST, 0, 326N, 773W, 30, 1009, LO,

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=112777&p=2223331#p2223331


SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
815 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR
SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI

[Epsilon_Fan]

I saw this on the radar this morning, and it made me reconsider hiking up in the Francis Marion NF today. I'll have to head south instead. It definately has a tight circulation but it's very small. I think it's this feature that's been soaking us with rain the past couple days.

[cycloneye]

First SHIP run has peak intensity at 54kts.

WHXX01 KWBC 191238
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1238 UTC SAT MAY 19 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932012) 20120519 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120519 1200 120520 0000 120520 1200 120521 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.6N 77.3W 32.2N 78.0W 31.8N 79.1W 31.2N 80.1W
BAMD 32.6N 77.3W 33.6N 76.0W 34.7N 76.1W 35.7N 77.3W
BAMM 32.6N 77.3W 32.7N 77.5W 32.9N 78.2W 32.9N 79.0W
LBAR 32.6N 77.3W 33.3N 76.8W 34.2N 76.2W 35.3N 75.8W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 47KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 47KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120521 1200 120522 1200 120523 1200 120524 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.6N 80.5W 30.9N 77.1W 34.2N 71.4W 37.1N 67.3W
BAMD 36.3N 78.4W 37.5N 74.9W 40.4N 63.1W 42.2N 47.5W
BAMM 32.8N 79.2W 34.4N 72.8W 38.5N 60.1W 40.5N 46.9W
LBAR 36.8N 75.3W 40.7N 72.7W 44.5N 64.0W 46.7N 49.0W
SHIP 52KTS 54KTS 48KTS 39KTS
DSHP 52KTS 54KTS 48KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.6N LONCUR = 77.3W DIRCUR = 220DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 33.1N LONM12 = 76.8W DIRM12 = 226DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 33.4N LONM24 = 76.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 50NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[RL3AO]

Just about looks like something you would see in mid-May off the coast of the Carolina's.

[wxman57]

NHC will wait to see if the convection persists through today before considering naming. It's over warmer water than that system by the Azores a week of two ago. I don't think it has too much potential to become a hurricane, but it could cause some rain for the Mid Atlantic coast if it gets steered back to the west as some models have predicted.

[senorpepr]

Here's a satellite/radar composite shot of 93L this morning:

[Aric Dunn]

very intriguing. spun quick last night.

[RL3AO]

NHC will wait to see if the convection persists through today before considering naming. It's over warmer water than that system by the Azores a week of two ago. I don't think it has too much potential to become a hurricane, but it could cause some rain for the Mid Atlantic coast if it gets steered back to the west as some models have predicted.

I'll admit to not having been following the models and situation on this. Are we looking a real chance of a named storm here?

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm surprised they only gave it a 20% chance. Computer models have been hinting at this storm for days now and wind shear is less than 20 knots. Seems like a fifty-fifty chance to me. It already has a well established circulation. If convection can hold throughout the day it looks like we will have Alberto. (Not an official forecast, just my opinion.)

[wxman57]

NHC will wait to see if the convection persists through today before considering naming. It's over warmer water than that system by the Azores a week of two ago. I don't think it has too much potential to become a hurricane, but it could cause some rain for the Mid Atlantic coast if it gets steered back to the west as some models have predicted.

I'll admit to not having been following the models and situation on this. Are we looking a real chance of a named storm here?

Keep in mind that the chance of naming doesn't have too much to do with it actually having TS winds and an LLC, as we saw with the Azores system. Naming will depend also on any perceived threat to land areas. It already appears to be an LLC with winds 25-30 kts, equal to any depression. And winds could be 35 kts by tomorrow. NHC will wait to see if convection persists near the center before considering naming.

[crownweather]

Is there another location on the net that I can download the ATCF model files to import into the hurricane software I have. ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/aid_public/ is not updating and I cannot find another site that has this info.

Thanks!!

[cycloneye]

Is there another location on the net that I can download the ATCF model files to import into the hurricane software I have. ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/aid_public/ is not updating and I cannot find another site that has this info.

Thanks!!

Hi Rob.

Here are three ATCF places that will help you.

There is the ATCF best track file for 2012.

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

The SHIPS text file.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

And the directory to all files.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/

[northjaxpro]

It indeed does have an impressive tight circulation. NHC will tag it a TD or minimal TS possibly if convection persists.

[Dean4Storms]

SPC's WRF radar simulation develops an eye like feature on 93L.......


http://policlimate.com/weather/wrf/spc2 ... _cref.html

[cycloneye]

Looking very good.

[Aric Dunn]

well looking at the GFS and euro along with the rest most do a large cyclonic loop to the SW over the next couple days before heading off to the north. the farther sw it can go the warmer the water. right now its sitting over the gulf stream and if it head sw it will hit warmer sst.

close up sat

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/i ... h-rgb.html toggle the radar

[crownweather]

Hmmm, seems like the ftp site isn't coming up. Is it me or is their server down?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I997 using Tapatalk 2

[RL3AO]

SHEAR (KT) 35 33 35 30 25 23 20 28 33 41 41 37 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 2 0 -2 -2 -5 -8 -6 -13 -7 -4

Ouch.

[CrazyC83]

You can't be too conservative when it is near land.

[CrazyC83]

Talk about no consensus in the track there.