ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical

[northjaxpro]

As stands now the grand total of rain I have received here at my home is just under 8 inches since Sunday afternoon when the first outer bands from Beryl reached the Jax area.

Wow, no kidding? That's a good bit of rain!

Well, it will certainly help for sure.

I saw a report of over 12 inches inches in Lafayette county, which is in the Suwannee River valley of North Florida . Beryl came to a crawl once she reached the I-75 corridor and according to the NWS Tallahassee office earlier today, a torrenial feederband trained over that region.
----------------------------------------------------------------------


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1137 AM EDT Tue May 29 2012

Upon further review, we made some last-minute adjustments to our
PoP forecast for this afternoon. Recent observations and RAP
forecasts indicate the 1000-700 mb mean wind will be in the 15 to
20 KT range, which would likely pin any sea breeze to the coast.
Indeed, the most recent HRRR run simulated reflectivity does not
show much sea breeze convection at all. It appears that the
convective band to our south (the rain band from tropical
depression Beryl that dumped a foot of rain in Lafayette County)
is the only significant convergence band in our region.

[SouthernBreeze]

It looks like at the rate it is moving, it is 2-3 hours away from the CoC reaching the ocean again. I wonder what the SSTs are and if shear is low enough for any re-intensification at all?

Wow, it's moving along that fast? Where are you thinking it'll re-emerge?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I was just guessing based on the radar out of Wilmington.

http://www.wect.com/link/309860/interactive-radar

[WilmingtonSandbar]

This is just a guess, and no official forecast. Using the measurement tool, it looks like the storm is moving at close to 20 mph. It looks to be moving maybe just E of NE. So I think it will probably come out over water just south of Charelston in about 4 hours. A little more than the 2-3 I said earlier after I used the measurement tool a couple more times.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 02, 2012053000, , BEST, 0, 319N, 817W, 25, 1004

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[capepoint]

Look on radar at NC, here comes the front that is booting it offshore. Moisture from the front and moisture from Beryl running together means a wet day for eastern NC tomorrow.

[LarryWx]

Here in Savannah, my rain gauge says I've received a whopping 1/2 inch of rain since yesterday. And I've double checked it for leaks. Forecast was for 3-5 inches. I'm tellin' ya, some aspiring young grad student should come here and investigate what has to be some meteorological phenomenon in the atmosphere. Everything seems to either miss us, or dissipate into oblivion as soon as they get within a few miles of us.

Yes, total rainfall had been fairly paltry here in Savannah up until mid afternoon. There had been several heavy feeder bands accompanied by gusty winds since Sunday evening, but the accompanying heavy rain fell mainly for just a few minutes each time. However, a nice band of heavy rain (longer lasting) then came through at about 3 PM and then the steadiest rains finally fell this evening just east of Beryl's center with some of it pretty heavy. I'm guessing that at least ~1" fell this evening alone (no rain gauge here).

[UpTheCreek]

As stands now the grand total of rain I have received here at my home is just under 8 inches since Sunday afternoon when the first outer bands from Beryl reached the Jax area.

Wow, no kidding? That's a good bit of rain!

Well, it will certainly help for sure.

I saw a report of over 12 inches inches in Lafayette county, which is in the Suwannee River valley of North Florida . Beryl came to a crawl once she reached the I-75 corridor and according to the NWS Tallahassee office earlier today, a torrenial feederband trained over that region.

They're calling from anywhere between 2 and 6 inches here in the central coast of NC. I fear it's going to pick up speed quite quickly with that cold front coming through that we'll be lucky to get an inch. Hope I'm wrong, but am glad that those south of us got some help from it.

[UpTheCreek]

Look on radar at NC, here comes the front that is booting it offshore. Moisture from the front and moisture from Beryl running together means a wet day for eastern NC tomorrow.

I am curious, do you have any thoughts on the interaction of this cold front and Beryl, aside from it pushing Beryl out to sea? I was wondering if it could lead to some fairly severe weather.

I agree though, it should get pretty wet in these parts tomorrow and if that's all, I welcome it.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 02, 2012053000, , BEST, 0, 319N, 817W, 25, 1004

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

Here are the latest positions of Best Track,the last one at 00z.Moving ENE and going into the water near or over Savannah.

[MGC]

Looks like Beryl will be off the coast some time tonight. Should reintensify to a TS. Hope nobody had an damage and the rain helped the drought in the area impacted.....MGC

[WilmingtonSandbar]

00z Best Track.

AL, 02, 2012053000, , BEST, 0, 319N, 817W, 25, 1004

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

Here are the latest positions of Best Track,the last one at 00z.Moving ENE and going into the water near or over Savannah.

It looks like the CoC is already north of Savannah. I am still thinking Charleston or just south of.

[SouthernBreeze]

Just Opinion - NOT a Forcast!

Looking like it'll re-emerge over water a little N of Charleston to me - maybe even about Georgetown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...BERYL APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 81.3W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM WNW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17
KM/H. AN EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF BERYL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA EARLY WEDNESDAY AND MOVE ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT BERYL
COULD REGAIN TROPICAL-STORM STATUS ON WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES OFF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...ISOLATED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...IN
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

BERYL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE
HAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THAT PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT WIND
OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41008 AND SHIP KCDK.

AS EXPECTED...THE DEPRESSION IS ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 065 DEGREES AT 9 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
SHOWS BERYL PICKING UP FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THAT TIME. THEREAFTER...
THERE IS INCREASING SPREAD...WITH THE GFS SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING
CYCLONE MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
UKMET MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKER LOW MOVING MORE EASTWARD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION AND
IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ALSO FOLLOWS THE ECMWF MODEL BY CALLING FOR THE CYCLONE TO
BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. A POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIO IS FOR BERYL TO BECOME THE PRIMARY EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

AFTER BERYL EXITS THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BERYL TO REGAIN
TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT BERYL WILL
BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED NEAR
THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 32.2N 81.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 33.1N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 31/0000Z 34.7N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 31/1200Z 36.5N 71.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 37.7N 66.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 02/0000Z 40.0N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[brunota2003]

Several buoys off the SC/NC coast have winds sustained between 25 and 30 knots this morning.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

...BERYL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 79.8W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...
22 KM/H. A CONTINUED EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERYL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY AND MOVE ALONG OR JUST
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND BERYL COULD REGAIN TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH LATER
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1000.9
MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...ISOLATED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
TODAY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...IN
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

BERYL HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 6 H. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 1001
MB...WHILE A COMBINATION OF SURFACE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 KT IN A BAND
OVER WATER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DESPITE THE
INTENSIFICATION...THE CYCLONE HAS A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY DUE TO A TONGUE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF THE CENTER.

DURING THE NEXT 24 H...BERYL WILL PASS OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE
GULF STREAM...WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE CYCLONE PRODUCES UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS. BY 36-
48 H...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST BERYL TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON HOW WILL BERYL WILL EVOLVE AFTER
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE CANADIAN MERGES THE SYSTEM WITH A
COLD FRONT IN 72 H...WHILE THE GFS AND NOGAPS FORECAST BERYL TO
BECOME THE FOCUS OF A STRONG BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...POSSIBLY BY MERGER WITH A NEARBY FRONTAL WAVE. THE
ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW BERYL AND THE FRONTAL WAVE REMAINING SPEARATE
THROUGH 120 H. A 96 H FORECAST POINT HAS BEEN ADDED AS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE EXTREMES.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/11. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT BERYL WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 36 H...WITH THE CENTER MOVING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE REACHING THE OPEN
ATLANTIC. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A
LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL
LOCATION AND MOTION. THE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES DURING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS SHOWING A
POSITION EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND BY 96-120 H...WHILE THE ECMWF AND
UKMET FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO BE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. THE
LATTER PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES
AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED NEAR
THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST FROM 12-24 H...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 33.1N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 30/1800Z 34.2N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 31/0600Z 36.0N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 37.5N 69.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 38.6N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 02/0600Z 39.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 03/0600Z 41.0N 39.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[capepoint]

Look on radar at NC, here comes the front that is booting it offshore. Moisture from the front and moisture from Beryl running together means a wet day for eastern NC tomorrow.

I am curious, do you have any thoughts on the interaction of this cold front and Beryl, aside from it pushing Beryl out to sea? I was wondering if it could lead to some fairly severe weather.

I agree though, it should get pretty wet in these parts tomorrow and if that's all, I welcome it.

Maybe add a little moisture, and slightly enhance the tornado risk, but would probably be negligible...

[Bizzles]

Good Morning Beryl

000
WTNT32 KNHC 300839
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012

...BERYL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 79.8W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...
22 KM/H. A CONTINUED EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERYL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA LATER TODAY AND MOVE ALONG OR JUST
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND BERYL COULD REGAIN TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH LATER
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1000.9
MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...ISOLATED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
TODAY. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...IN
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[SouthernBreeze]

I just got in from a very blustery night of delivery work from Myrtle Bch, SC up through Ocean Isle, NC. A few heavy squals w/ high wiper blades going & very poor visibility, but all in all not too bad. Pretty gusty right on the beaches. Saw a couple vinyl signs & awnings blown down. Rain is the lightest right now that I've seen all night! They say ther's still more rain to come - but it looks about over right now ~

Spoke too soon - After about an hour's break, rain is back now, fairly heavy again!

[brunota2003]

Round up of buoy observations:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013
31.1 knots sustained at Buoy 41013

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004
27.2 knots sustained at Buoy 41004

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=ocpn7
28.0 knots sustained at Station OCPN7 (Note: It did record sustained winds of 32.1 knots a little over an hour ago)

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41038
27.2 knots sustained at Buoy 41038

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41024
25.3 knots sustained at Buoy 41024

Most of the other buoys are in the low 20 knot range.

Personally, I would upgrade Beryl back to a TS...some of those buoys have an 8 minute reporting period, and with them reporting winds of about 30 knots, coupled with the 32 knots sustained recorded by Station OCPN7...I believe that justifies the upgrade back to TS status, assuming that the buoys did not capture the highest sustained winds in the area.