WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

[Chacor]

WTPQ50 RJTD 011200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1203 MAWAR (1203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011200UTC 15.3N 125.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 021200UTC 17.2N 124.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 031200UTC 18.8N 125.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 041200UTC 20.3N 126.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 051200UTC 23.7N 130.1E 350NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
120HF 061200UTC 27.5N 135.0E 450NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT =

[RobWESTPACWX]

Just my thoughts on the storm. Something to add to the DSCN.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLL26milyDI[/youtube]

[mf_dolphin]

Nicely done! Thanks for posting.

[cycloneye]

WTPQ20 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1203 MAWAR (1203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 15.7N 124.8E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 021800UTC 17.8N 124.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 031800UTC 19.4N 125.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 041800UTC 22.5N 127.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

[cycloneye]

WTPQ20 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1203 MAWAR (1203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 16.5N 124.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 030000UTC 18.4N 124.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 040000UTC 20.7N 126.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 050000UTC 23.7N 128.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[dexterlabio]

Interesting video update as always, Rob!



Mawar looks very healthy right now. Has a large CDO and still expanding. DT numbers hit 4.0 as per JTWC's satfix.

[euro6208]

nearing typhoon strength and expected to intensify further...

WTPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 16.6N 124.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 124.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.5N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.5N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.6N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 21.1N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 24.7N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 28.1N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 31.8N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 124.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
020000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND
030300Z.//
NNNN




WDPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAWAR) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 610 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SMALL, IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME MORE
SYMMETRICAL WITH SMOOTHER EDGES. A 012353Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE WITH A LARGE, BUT FRAGMENTED BAND FARTHER TO THE EAST. THE
LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST-WESTERN SECTORS
CONTINUES TO TREND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45-55 KNOTS FROM RJTD AND PGTW/KNES
RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOW GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) DUE TO
A SUSTAINED POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE OVER THE LLCC. HOWEVER,
SLIGHTLY STRONGER VWS (15-20 KNOTS) NEAR 20N MAY BE CAUSING THE
LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NOTED EARLIER. TS 04W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) WHICH IS ANCHORED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN
COAST OF CHINA, CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WILL CAUSE A
BREAK IN THE STEERING STR. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TS 04W WILL
SLOW DOWN AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE COMPLETED THE RE-CURVE AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARDS
TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TS 04W WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN FAVORABLE NEAR
28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW BECOMES ENHANCED VIA A
CONNECTION WITH THE MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AFTER A FORECAST
MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS ON 04/00Z, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN BY TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING VWS FROM THE ZONAL WESTERLIES
AND DECREASING SST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS MAWAR IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND GET ABSORBED INTO THE STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER MUCH COOLER SST (LESS THAN
25C) AND INTO HIGHER VWS. BY TAU 96, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE TIGHT ENVELOPE IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE. THIS FORECAST AGREES WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS (CONW) BUT
IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT DURING TAU 72 WHEN THE LLCC IS CLOSEST TO
OKINAWA. THIS IS TO OFFSET THE SUDDEN POLEWARD JUMP IN THE GFS
TRACKER DURING THIS TIME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CPA TO
KADENA, AB, HAS DECREASED BY 33 NM FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST;
HOWEVER, THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE CONW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 020324

A. TROPICAL STORM 04W (MAWAR)

B. 02/0232Z

C. 16.9N

D. 124.0E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 44A/PBO LARGE CDO/ANMTN. LARGE CDO AT 120NM YIELDS
A 4.0 PLUS A PARTICAL BANDING FEATURE YIELDS A DT OF 4.5. MET
YIELDS A 3.5. DT YIELDS A 4.0. CONSTRAINTS WERE BROKEN DUE TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
01/2153Z 16.7N 124.2E SSMS
01/2154Z 16.7N 124.2E SSMS
01/2154Z 16.7N 124.3E SSMS
01/2355Z 16.7N 124.2E SSMS


LANZETTA


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 980.6mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 3.9 3.9

[euro6208]

I think this is a typhoon already possibly a category 2 with 80 knots 1 min winds...we don't have recon so dvorak numbers are always on the low side as we have seen in the atlantic....




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[dexterlabio]

now a severe tropical storm accdg to JMA...





STS 1203 (MAWAR)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 2 June 2012

<Analyses at 02/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°05'(17.1°)
E124°05'(124.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE280km(150NM)
NW220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 02/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°05'(18.1°)
E124°25'(124.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE Slowly
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 03/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°00'(19.0°)
E125°20'(125.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 04/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°05'(22.1°)
E127°25'(127.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 05/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°40'(25.7°)
E130°50'(130.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 460km(250NM)
Storm warning area ALL600km(325NM)

[francis327]

Upgraded to TYPHOON by JTWC at 0900UTC

020900Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 124.1E.
TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.//

[dexterlabio]

[francis327]

Here goes the eyewall.

[francis327]

Pretty monster..isn't it?Fairly well organized now

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to Severe Tropical Storm by JMA.

WTPQ20 RJTD 020900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1203 MAWAR (1203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020900UTC 17.6N 124.1E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 180NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 030900UTC 19.6N 125.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 07KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 040600UTC 22.1N 127.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 050600UTC 25.7N 130.8E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 021200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1203 MAWAR (1203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021200UTC 17.6N 124.2E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 200NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 031200UTC 19.9N 125.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 041200UTC 23.7N 128.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 051200UTC 27.7N 132.4E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =

[euro6208]

70 knots

WTPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 17.9N 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 19.1N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 20.3N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 21.7N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 23.4N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 27.1N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 31.0N 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 36.6N 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 124.4E.
TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//
NNNN



very deep convection...mawar is now the 3rd typhoon so far out of 4...

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 021209

A. TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR)

B. 02/1132Z

C. 17.8N

D. 124.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .90 WRAP W/WHITE +BF YIELDS A DT
OF 4.5. PT AGREES; MET IS 4.0. DBO DT WITH WHITE SURROUNDING
MORE THAN HALF OF THE STORM'S CENTER AND LLCC AND UPPER LEVELS
BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY STACKED.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
02/0735Z 17.5N 124.0E SSMI


HUME

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 970.2mb/ 77.0kt

Weakening Flag : OFF



i see you!

[SouthDadeFish]

Mawar has grown from this yesterday:


To this now:

[Chacor]

Hasn't quite been able to consolidate a nice, round eye, which is probably a good thing.