WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 19.4N 125.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 125.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.8N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 22.7N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 24.6N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 26.7N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 30.7N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 36.3N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 125.6E.
TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
NNNN

mawar was very organized earlier and now it looks like he weaken based on satellite. kinda weird that this typhoon has a very hard time intensifying and but still...intensification into a major typhoon is forecast...

[cycloneye]

WTPQ20 RJTD 031800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1203 MAWAR (1203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031800UTC 20.9N 125.8E FAIR
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 280NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 041800UTC 24.3N 128.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 051800UTC 28.3N 133.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 061800UTC 30.9N 140.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[senorpepr]

Enhanced IR shot of Mawar:

[Fyzn94]

This is starting to look like a classic storm.

[Chacor]

Still 75 kt from JMA at midnight UTC.

WTPQ50 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1203 MAWAR (1203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 21.6N 126.2E GOOD
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 280NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050000UTC 25.3N 129.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 060000UTC 29.2N 135.4E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 070000UTC 32.7N 143.4E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 080000UTC 36.6N 151.7E 350NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT
120HF 090000UTC 40.1N 160.7E 375NM 70%
MOVE ENE 20KT =


Equates to roughly 85 kt 1-min.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Below is the latest look from JMA, rain showers and outer bands already hitting okinawa.

[RobWESTPACWX]

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/wp ... alysis.png

A little look the storms track and analysis from Pat on here, remember not official but useful.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Okinawas radar is just starting to see the eyewall to the South.

[Infdidoll]

Not too bad here, so far. Some interesting rainbands moving through (very low clouds rapidly moving towards the southern tip of the island). Winds aren't bad at all just yet.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I seen the latest had Kadena staying at TCCOR 3. Regarless still think TS strenght winds there within the stronger rain bands tomorrow morning.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1203 MAWAR (1203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 23.2N 127.7E GOOD
MOVE NE 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 27.4N 132.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 061200UTC 31.9N 141.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE ENE 22KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 071200UTC 37.6N 150.3E 250NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[RobWESTPACWX]

I just made a video, I hope its useful.

[youtube] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__6pdwNV8QE[/youtube]

[euro6208]

90 knots

1. TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 23.3N 127.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 127.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 25.4N 129.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 27.6N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 30.0N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 32.6N 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 38.3N 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 128.0E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 34 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.
//



WDPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTH OF KADENA
AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT HAS SLOWLY DIMINISHED
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. IT ALSO INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING
TO ELONGATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, LOCATED OVER
EASTERN ASIA, MOVES INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA. INCREASING INTERACTION
WITH THE MID-LATITUDES HAVE STARTED TO IMPACT THE OVERALL STRUCTURE
OF TY 04W. THE EYE HAS BROKEN DOWN INTO TIGHT SPIRAL BANDING AND THE
BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM HAVE ALSO WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE EIR IMAGERY AND THE POSITION FIX FROM PGTW WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON 4.5/5.5 DVORAK
ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED
IN EIR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
MAINTAINING ITS SELF-INDUCED MESO-ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS PROVIDING
FOR WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (05-10 KNOTS) OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A SHARP GRADIENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG
VWS (20 KNOTS AND GREATER) ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES EXISTS POLEWARD OF 25N. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A ZONAL PATTERN IN THE MID-LATITUDES, HOWEVER THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONTINUES TO TAP INTO THE ZONAL FLOW HELPING TO KEEP
THE SYSTEM AS A STRONG TYPHOON. TY 04W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 04W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING STR FOR APPROXIMATELY THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. DURING THIS
THE TIME INTENSITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) (24-26 DEGREES CELSIUS). DURING TAUS 36-72, TY MAWAR WILL
STEER INTO THE MID-LATITUDES ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING STR, FURTHER WEAKENING DUE TO THE STRONG WESTERLY VWS AND
EVEN COOLER SST VALUES. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN ASIA, WILL TRACK OUT OVER JAPAN AND AID IN THE EVENTUAL
CAPTURE OF THE LLCC INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION DURING TAU 48 AND COMPLETE IT
BY TAU 72. THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST DUE TO THE TIGHT ENVELOPE OF NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
CPA TO KADENA AB IS CURRENTLY 121 NM AT 042200Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

nice picture of mawar...

[euro6208]

80 knots

WTPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 25.5N 130.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5N 130.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 28.0N 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 30.6N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 32 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 34.1N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 131.1E.
TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 148 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z. //
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. SIX-HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 148 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE
CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE AS IT IS ENTRENCHED DEEPER INTO THE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES. A RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM OKINAWA
INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS WIDENED AND HAS BECOME MORE
ELONGATED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION AND THE
RADAR LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING
AND WARMING OF CONVECTIVE TOPS IN ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED FURTHER POLEWARD OF THE
RIDGE AXIS INTO AN AREA OF STRONG (30-40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AS A RESULT OF INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM. THIS IS READILY EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TY
04W IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TYPHOON MAWAR WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND
COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 12, BECOMING A
STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW BY TAU 36. DURING THIS TRANSITION, THE
INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DUE TO PERSISTENTLY STRONG VWS (IN
EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS) AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (BELOW 26
CELSIUS). THERE CONTINUES TO BE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
DUE TO THE TIGHT ENVELOPE OF NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. //
NNNN

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 050300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1203 MAWAR (1203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050300UTC 26.5N 130.8E FAIR
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 65NM EAST 50NM WEST
30KT 280NM EAST 130NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 060300UTC 31.0N 139.7E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 26KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 070000UTC 37.0N 148.3E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[RobWESTPACWX]

Model consensus is very close in the extended outlook here.

[Chacor]

Whoever decided to rename this topic "tropical storm", I can assure you that RSMC Tokyo haven't yet made that downgrade.

WTPQ20 RJTD 050900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1203 MAWAR (1203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050900UTC 27.6N 131.9E FAIR
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM NORTHEAST 40NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 220NM NORTHEAST 130NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 060900UTC 32.7N 142.5E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 30KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 070600UTC 38.4N 149.3E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[RobWESTPACWX]

Severe Tropical Storm At this time, Maybe thats what they were trying to say Chacor. Still a rather noticable differeance between the two though.

[cycloneye]

WTPQ20 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1203 MAWAR (1203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 28.1N 133.3E POOR
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM NORTHEAST 40NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 220NM NORTHEAST 130NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 061200UTC 33.9N 144.2E 130NM 70%
MOVE ENE 31KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 071200UTC 39.5N 151.0E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =