WTPQ20 RJTD 021800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1203 MAWAR (1203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 17.9N 124.5E FAIR
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 031800UTC 20.4N 125.8E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 041800UTC 24.4N 128.6E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 051800UTC 28.2N 132.9E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =
WPAC: MAWAR - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139067
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm
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SouthDadeFish
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2835
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
- Location: Miami, FL
- Contact:
Occasional rains and gusts of wind here south of Manila 
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139067
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm
Sad news to report from Luzon as 30 fisherman are missing and many other statuations have occured and all that is being affected indirectly has caused all of this to occur.
Thirty fishermen were missing and hundreds of travellers were stranded on Saturday after tropical storm Mawar dumped heavy rains across the Philippines, forcing flight and ship cancellations. The storm blanketed large parts of the main southern island of Luzon and central Visayas province with up to 25 millimetres (an inch) of rain an hour overnight, the state weather bureau said. At least two domestic flights were cancelled while more than 500 people were stranded in ports after the coast guard prevented passenger ferries from sailing, disaster relief agencies said. "Thirty fishermen have also gone missing from the eastern-most island of Catanduanes after apparently getting caught at sea by the storm," Benito Ramos, head of Manila's Office of Civil Defense, said over local radio. He said search and rescue operations were underway, though the coast guard could not carry out an air search due to bad visibility. About 20 storms slam into the Philippines from the Pacific every year, causing heavy casualties and damage. Mawar is the first for 2012.
http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/site/?page ... -35301-PHL
Thirty fishermen were missing and hundreds of travellers were stranded on Saturday after tropical storm Mawar dumped heavy rains across the Philippines, forcing flight and ship cancellations. The storm blanketed large parts of the main southern island of Luzon and central Visayas province with up to 25 millimetres (an inch) of rain an hour overnight, the state weather bureau said. At least two domestic flights were cancelled while more than 500 people were stranded in ports after the coast guard prevented passenger ferries from sailing, disaster relief agencies said. "Thirty fishermen have also gone missing from the eastern-most island of Catanduanes after apparently getting caught at sea by the storm," Benito Ramos, head of Manila's Office of Civil Defense, said over local radio. He said search and rescue operations were underway, though the coast guard could not carry out an air search due to bad visibility. About 20 storms slam into the Philippines from the Pacific every year, causing heavy casualties and damage. Mawar is the first for 2012.
http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/site/?page ... -35301-PHL
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3406
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm
^man, it happens everytime a storm comes, and the thing is that the storm didn't even touch down directly. i always wonder how ready the Philippines is with regards to tropical cyclones.
On the other hand, looks like we'll really see our first major system in WPAC with Mawar...
On the other hand, looks like we'll really see our first major system in WPAC with Mawar...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm
90 knots and expected to intensify further possibly reaching category 4?
WTPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 18.8N 125.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 125.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 20.0N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 21.5N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 23.5N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 25.4N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 29.4N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 34.7N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 125.1E.
TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A RAGGED, BANDING EYE THAT IS SLIGHTLY OBSCURED BY CIRRUS. A
SERIES OF SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGES (022140Z AND 022340Z) DETAIL THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE BANDING EYE WITH DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED
IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW INDICATING 90 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW OF TY 04W.
ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS WEAK OVER THE LLCC
DUE TO A SUSTAINED POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE. HOWEVER, VWS IS
MODERATE (20 KNOTS) JUST EAST OF TAIWAN DUE TO THE APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS VWS IS PROBABLY THE CAUSE OF LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ADVECTION OF A RELATIVELY COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS LOCATED BEHIND
THE SURFACE FRONT. TY MAWAR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS
ANCHORED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. UPPER-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGHING, EXTENDING FROM THE
CYCLOGENISIS CURRENTLY FORMING JUST SOUTH OF JAPAN, WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD CAUSING THE STR TO WEAKEN ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY THUS CAUSING TY 04W TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARDS
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 36 AS OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST) VALUES REMAIN FAVORABLE. THE MAXIMUM FORECAST INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 110 KNOTS BASED ON THE FORMATION OF THE BANDING
EYE AND IS SUSTAINED FROM TAUS 24-36 TO CAPTURE THE NEXT DIURNAL
MAXIMUM CYCLE. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 INCREASING VWS IS EXPECTED
TO STIFLE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS TY 04W APPROACHES ZONAL
WESTERLIES. ADDITIONALLY, BY TAU 72 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
CROSSED 25 DEGREES NORTH INTO LESS FAVORABLE SST VALUES (LESS THAN
25C) AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY MAWAR IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND GET ABSORBED INTO THE STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER MUCH COOLER SST (LESS THAN
23C) AND INTO HIGHER VWS. BY TAU 96, THE CYCLONE WILL COMPLETE ETT
AS IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THIS IS THE REASON
FOR DROPPING THE TAU 120 POSITION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE CONTINUED TIGHT ENVELOPE IN THE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST AGREES WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE CPA TO KADENA AB HAS DECREASED BY ONLY SIX NM OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 120 NM TO 114 NM CURRENTLY.//
NNNN
WTPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 18.8N 125.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 125.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 20.0N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 21.5N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 23.5N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 25.4N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 29.4N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 34.7N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 125.1E.
TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A RAGGED, BANDING EYE THAT IS SLIGHTLY OBSCURED BY CIRRUS. A
SERIES OF SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGES (022140Z AND 022340Z) DETAIL THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE BANDING EYE WITH DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED
IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW INDICATING 90 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW OF TY 04W.
ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS WEAK OVER THE LLCC
DUE TO A SUSTAINED POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE. HOWEVER, VWS IS
MODERATE (20 KNOTS) JUST EAST OF TAIWAN DUE TO THE APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS VWS IS PROBABLY THE CAUSE OF LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ADVECTION OF A RELATIVELY COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS LOCATED BEHIND
THE SURFACE FRONT. TY MAWAR IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS
ANCHORED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. UPPER-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGHING, EXTENDING FROM THE
CYCLOGENISIS CURRENTLY FORMING JUST SOUTH OF JAPAN, WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD CAUSING THE STR TO WEAKEN ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY THUS CAUSING TY 04W TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARDS
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 36 AS OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST) VALUES REMAIN FAVORABLE. THE MAXIMUM FORECAST INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 110 KNOTS BASED ON THE FORMATION OF THE BANDING
EYE AND IS SUSTAINED FROM TAUS 24-36 TO CAPTURE THE NEXT DIURNAL
MAXIMUM CYCLE. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 INCREASING VWS IS EXPECTED
TO STIFLE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS TY 04W APPROACHES ZONAL
WESTERLIES. ADDITIONALLY, BY TAU 72 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
CROSSED 25 DEGREES NORTH INTO LESS FAVORABLE SST VALUES (LESS THAN
25C) AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY MAWAR IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND GET ABSORBED INTO THE STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER MUCH COOLER SST (LESS THAN
23C) AND INTO HIGHER VWS. BY TAU 96, THE CYCLONE WILL COMPLETE ETT
AS IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THIS IS THE REASON
FOR DROPPING THE TAU 120 POSITION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE CONTINUED TIGHT ENVELOPE IN THE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST AGREES WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE CPA TO KADENA AB HAS DECREASED BY ONLY SIX NM OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 120 NM TO 114 NM CURRENTLY.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm
mawar looks like he is rapidly intensifying!
the last warning has him at 90 knots but he is clearly stronger now. i would place the intensity at 115 knots category 4...
sadly with no recon, jtwc has to follow the dvorak numbers which are clearly well behind and always on the low side when it comes to powerful storms..
Last edited by euro6208 on Sun Jun 03, 2012 12:54 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
JMA still underestimating its intensity.
WTPQ20 RJTD 030300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1203 MAWAR (1203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030300UTC 18.8N 125.0E FAIR
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 040300UTC 21.5N 126.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 050000UTC 25.4N 128.7E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 060000UTC 29.3N 134.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
WTPQ20 RJTD 030300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1203 MAWAR (1203)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030300UTC 18.8N 125.0E FAIR
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 040300UTC 21.5N 126.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 050000UTC 25.4N 128.7E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 060000UTC 29.3N 134.0E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
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dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3406
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm
the well-defined eye of this storm is already evident even in visible imagery. what does JMA need to see to classify this as a typhoon? IMO even 65kts on 10-min average is not enough to describe its intensity right now.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm
Hey guys, here is my latest video on this storm if you want to watch,
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEgExiz6nCw[/youtube]
Plus I seen above you posted about the 30 fishermen missing, good news they were found last night to the delight of many, bad news 3 more in a separate situation on the same island are still missing.
http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2012/06/02/breaking-thirty-30-missing-filipino-fishermen-rescued-alive-well-all-accounted-for/
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEgExiz6nCw[/youtube]
Plus I seen above you posted about the 30 fishermen missing, good news they were found last night to the delight of many, bad news 3 more in a separate situation on the same island are still missing.
http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2012/06/02/breaking-thirty-30-missing-filipino-fishermen-rescued-alive-well-all-accounted-for/
Last edited by RobWESTPACWX on Sun Jun 03, 2012 4:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
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RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
I agree Chacor, same thing as the last storm. I understand a 10min, wind scale but for reals? JMA being the RSMC out here really needs to invest in a Tyhoon Hunter program. But thats just a idea in the wind I think.
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
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RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
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- Contact:
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yulou
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 99
- Age: 26
- Joined: Sat Nov 20, 2010 8:19 am
- Location: Houston,TX
- Contact:
Thirty fishermen were missing and hundreds of travellers were stranded on Saturday after tropical storm Mawar dumped heavy rains across the Philippines, forcing flight and ship cancellations. The storm blanketed large parts of the main southern island of Luzon and central Visayas province with up to 25 millimetres (an inch) of rain an hour overnight, the state weather bureau said. At least two domestic flights were cancelled while more than 500 people were stranded in ports after the coast guard prevented passenger ferries from sailing, disaster relief agencies said. "Thirty fishermen have also gone missing from the eastern-most island of Catanduanes after apparently getting caught at sea by the storm," Benito Ramos, head of Manila's Office of Civil Defense, said over local radio. He said search and rescue operations were underway, though the coast guard could not carry out an air search due to bad visibility. About 20 storms slam into the Philippines from the Pacific every year, causing heavy casualties and damage. Mawar is the first for 2012.
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Chinese.
Houston, TX.
Bilis(0604) Saomai(0608) Goni(0907)
Houston, TX.
Bilis(0604) Saomai(0608) Goni(0907)
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dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3406
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Severe Tropical Storm
It's funny to classify last year's Talas as a typhoon by the RSMC over Mawar, especially at this very point. 
Still I'm sure they'll upgrade it before it dies, I betting my house for that!
Still I'm sure they'll upgrade it before it dies, I betting my house for that!
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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yulou
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 99
- Age: 26
- Joined: Sat Nov 20, 2010 8:19 am
- Location: Houston,TX
- Contact:
JMA has increased Mawar to TY
WTPQ20 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1203 MAWAR (1203) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 20.1N 125.6E FAIR
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 041200UTC 23.3N 127.6E 85NM 70%
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 051200UTC 27.3N 132.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 061200UTC 30.3N 138.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =
Last edited by yulou on Sun Jun 03, 2012 8:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Chinese.
Houston, TX.
Bilis(0604) Saomai(0608) Goni(0907)
Houston, TX.
Bilis(0604) Saomai(0608) Goni(0907)
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yulou
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 99
- Age: 26
- Joined: Sat Nov 20, 2010 8:19 am
- Location: Houston,TX
- Contact:
Reasoning 09Z Mawar
WDPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE EYE WITH A CIRCULAR
SMOOTH CORE AND THE EYEWALL FULLY ENCOMPASSING THE CENTER. DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM
PGTW AT 0430Z AND OBSERVED IMPROVEMENTS IN ORGANIZATION BY 0600Z
INDICATING 95 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOW THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LEADING TO THE
RECENT INTENSITY INCREASE. ADDITIONALLY, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
REMAINS WEAK OVER THE LLCC DUE TO A SUSTAINED POINT SOURCE OF
DIFFLUENCE. HOWEVER, VWS IS MODERATE (20 KNOTS) JUST EAST OF TAIWAN
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THIS VWS IS PROBABLY THE CAUSE OF
LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE ADVECTION OF A RELATIVELY COLDER AND DRIER AIR
MASS LOCATED BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. TY MAWAR IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS ANCHORED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. UPPER-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGHING, WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
SOUTHEASTWARD CAUSING THE STR TO WEAKEN ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
THUS CAUSING TY 04W TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARDS DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 24 AS
OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) VALUES REMAIN FAVORABLE.
THE MAXIMUM FORECAST INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BETWEEN TAU
12 AND 24, LIKELY AROUND 110 KNOTS EVEN THOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST
REFLECTS 105 KNOTS. INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
THROUGH TAU 36. BEYOND TAU 36, THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO PASS 25
DEGREES NORTH INTO UNFAVORABLE SST VALUES AND GREATER VWS CAUSING A
SHARPER DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 72. BY TAU 72 TY 04W IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY MAWAR IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER MUCH COOLER SST
(LESS THAN 23C) AND INTO HIGHER VWS. BY TAU 96, THE CYCLONE WILL
COMPLETE ETT AS IT GETS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE CONTINUED TIGHT
ENVELOPE IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST
AGREES WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CPA TO KADENA AB CONTINUES TO
SHIFT AROUND THE 12O NM POINT WITH THE TIMING NEAR 042100Z.//
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Chinese.
Houston, TX.
Bilis(0604) Saomai(0608) Goni(0907)
Houston, TX.
Bilis(0604) Saomai(0608) Goni(0907)
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RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon
JMA finally upped this to a typhoon, already typhoon warnings posted for waters.
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
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RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: MAWAR - Typhoon
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y71y8L5hyhg[/youtube]
TCCOR3 still in effect for Okinawa. I talk about that and a little more here.
TCCOR3 still in effect for Okinawa. I talk about that and a little more here.
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
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