Still a typhoon at 65 knots 1 minute
organized but weakening...
mawar is so big! wow..typhoons definitely are the largest in the world!
WTPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 28.7N 134.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.7N 134.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 31.2N 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 34.6N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 29.3N 135.8E.
TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM SOUTHWEST
OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051200Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z AND
060900Z.//
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WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAWAR) WARNING NR 20//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAWAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM SOUTHWEST
OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR) CLEARLY
INDICATES THAT TY 04W HAS BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS
EVIDENCED BY THE INTERACTION WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE, POSITIONED JUST
SOUTH OF JAPAN, AND THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS, THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHEARED
NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO THE STRONG (30-40 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), HOWEVER, A 051226Z METOP-A IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM
HAS RETAINED TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. BASED ON THIS IMAGE, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65
KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. TY 04W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD
WITHIN THE DEEP MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 04W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT TRACKS WITHIN THE DEEP
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 24 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TY 04W WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS
(GREATER THAN 40 KNOTS) AND COOLER SST (LESS THAN 23C) BUT SHOULD
TRANSITION INTO A STORM-FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE TIGHT GROUPING
AND CONSISTENT PERFORMANCE OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS.//
NNNN
