WPAC: GUCHOL - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

This is well SE of Guam. (2.5N-160W)

[euro6208]

UPGRADED TO MEDIUM!



incredibly huge!

ABPW10 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/080300Z-080600ZJUN2012//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.5N
160.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.5N 160.3E, APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION FORMING OVER A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE MSI AND A
072235Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A DEEP, YET FRAGMENTED, RAINBAND
OVER THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. COMPARISON OF THE BROAD
TURNING NOTICED JUST SIX HOURS AGO TO THE TIGHTER TURNING NOW SEEN
IN THE IMAGERY NOTED ABOVE INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE MAY BE
INTENSIFYING FASTER THAN GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED. A 072234Z ASCAT
BULL'S-EYE PASS SHOWS A MORE SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS
LOCATED A FEW DEGREES TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC.
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM POHNPEI SHOW EASTERLY WINDS AT 05-
10 KNOTS WITH A CURRENT SLP OF 1010 MB. THE 071200Z PGTW SURFACE
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS TWIN CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS STRADDLING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 160E WHICH MAY BE PROVIDING FOR ENHANCED WESTERLY
WINDS IN THE AREA. RECENT UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A
POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LLCC DUE TO
THE PERSISTENT STRONG CONVECTION AND EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY, THE DIVERGENT SECTOR OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC IS ENHANCING THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AT 05-10 KNOTS.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AT 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE RECENT
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Nothing yet from JMA. Rob,what is your take on this invest?

[francis327]

GFS is picking up this system but it is still early to see whether it will hit the PI, but obviously, it will first moving west before drifting up heading north according to GFS. Nothing comes out from COAMPS model. NoGAPS is picking up at this system as well and almost similar to GFS, they forecast that the system will not hit the PI. More or less following the track of 03W SANVU

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.5N
160.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.8N 159.3E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION FORMING OVER A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE MSI AND A
072235Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A DEEP, YET FRAGMENTED, RAINBAND
OVER THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. COMPARISON OF THE BROAD
TURNING NOTICED JUST SIX HOURS AGO TO THE TIGHTER TURNING NOW SEEN
IN THE IMAGERY NOTED ABOVE INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE MAY BE
INTENSIFYING FASTER THAN GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED. A 072234Z ASCAT
BULL'S-EYE PASS SHOWS A MORE SYMMETRIC LLCC WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS
LOCATED A FEW DEGREES TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC.
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM POHNPEI SHOW EASTERLY WINDS AT 05-
10 KNOTS WITH A CURRENT SLP OF 1009 MB. THE 080000Z PGTW SURFACE
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS TWIN CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS STRADDLING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 160E WHICH MAY BE PROVIDING FOR ENHANCED WESTERLY WINDS
IN THE AREA. RECENT UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A POINT
SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LLCC DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT STRONG CONVECTION AND EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY, THE DIVERGENT SECTOR OF A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC IS ENHANCING THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT HAS STARTED TO LOSE SOME OF THE ENHANCEMENT AS
THE TUTT CELL HAS STARTED TRACKING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE LLCC.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AT 05-10 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT AT 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE RECENT CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LLCC AND IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I think its in a good area for development, low wind shear high ssts and plenty of time to work with. Its been quick to develop though and very well could loose this strength. I think another 24hrs is need to get a accurate idea but to be honest at this time I personally think something might come out of this.

At 15Z the newest models will be realeased with the latest information in them in regards to this area. Im looking forward to that.

[cycloneye]

This discussion is from the Guam NWS:

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
THE MOST RECENT UPDATE BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER NOW
GIVES INVEST AREA 90W A MODERATE RISK OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GFS75 DEVELOPS 90W
AGGRESSIVELY AND STARTS IT MOVING IN A GENERAL DIRECTION TOWARD
THE WATERS JUST SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. THE GFS75 SEEMS TO BE
DEVELOPING IT TOO FAST...AND THE ECMWF-HIRES KEEPS IT FARTHER
SOUTH. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST STARTING MONDAY.
THEREFORE CONTINUED TO OPT FOR NO CHANGE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST
EXCEPT FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

WTPN21 PGTW 082030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
230 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.7N 156.6E TO 7.6N 148.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 082000Z
NDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 155.7E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.8N
159.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 155.7E, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, FEDERATED STATE OF MICRONESIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING OF
THE FORMATIVE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THIS IS CORROBORATED
BY A SERIES OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES, INCLUDING A 081558Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE THAT ALSO SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED WRAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 07
DEGREES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE
AND LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, AS EVIDENT
ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
TO THE NORTH IS ENHANCING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AT 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS, ARE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO
22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

[cycloneye]

TPPN10 PGTW 082113

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (SE OF CHUUK)

B. 08/2032Z

C. 5.1N

D. 155.0E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. FRAGMENTED CONVECTION WRAPS .25
ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT OF 1.0. PT AGREES. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
08/1558Z 4.8N 156.1E MMHS


CASPER

[cycloneye]

Discussion by the NWS of Guam about possible effects by 90W in their area of responsability.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
802 AM CHST SAT JUN 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE FORESEEN BY THE MODELS THROUGH MONDAY. AFTERWARD
THE POTENTIAL APPROACH OF 90W COMPLICATES THINGS A BIT. FOR
NOW...JUST EXTENDED THE PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SO IT STARTS ON
MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND UKMET BOTH SEEM TO TAKE 90W A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH WHICH SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BUT LITTLE
ELSE FOR THE MARIANAS. THE GFS40 STILL STEERS IT JUST SOUTHWEST
OF GUAM. HOWEVER...24 HOURS AGO THE GFS40 WAS TRYING TO TRACK IT
THROUGH THE ROTA CHANNEL SO THIS IS A DEFINITE TREND TOWARD THE
SOUTH. OTHERWISE...GRIDS WERE IN FINE SHAPE AND NEEDED ONLY TO BE
EXTENDED.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
INVEST AREA 90W NOW HAS A HIGH RISK OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
HAS THEREFORE ISSUED A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. WATCH
FOR FURTHER BULLETINS FROM BOTH THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GUAM. 90W IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK IN A WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH IT MAY START OUT
MORE WEST DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOSING DOWN...PASSING
SOUTH OF GUAM. THE QUESTION IS...JUST HOW FAR SOUTH.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
DESPITE A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION NEAR POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE YESTERDAY...JTWC HIGH INVEST AREA 90W FAILS TO DEVELOP
FURTHER OVER NIGHT. LATEST ASCAT/OSCAT COMPOSITE STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS INDICATES 90W REMAINS A TIGHT CIRCULATION CENTERED
SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND IN CHUUK STATE AT 3N155E. THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE MAINLY ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE AND ALSO
NEAR THE CENTER. ON THE 200MB ANALYSIS...90W IS MOVING AWAY FROM
A DIVERGENT AREA ALONG THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF A LARGE UPPER
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 13N164E. THIS HAS CAUSED CONVECTION TO
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ONLY SMALL POCKETS OF DEEPER
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER THIS MORNING. SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL
STRUCTURE OF 90W IS STILL VERY MUCH INTACT AND THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IN THE VICINITY REMAINS LOW...A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF 90W
IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WITH THE CENTER OF 90W ALREADY SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE
THIS MORNING...ITS INFLUENCE OVER THESE ISLANDS WILL DIMINISH
THRU THE DAY TODAY. INSTEAD CONVERGING SOUTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS
EAST OF 90W WILL TRIGGER PERIODIC CONVECTION OVER POHNPEI INTO
SUNDAY...AND KOSRAE INTO THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST...A TRADE-
WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS EASTWARD BETWEEN 3N AND 6N FROM
NEAR THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AT 170E TO EAST OF THE DATE LINE AT
175W. WEST OF 175W...THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD
CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THIS CONVERGENCE
ZONE WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS NEAR MAJURO INTO TONIGHT...AND
PROLONG SIMILAR CONDITIONS OVER KOSRAE AND POHNPEI INTO MONDAY.
BY SUNDAY...DRIER NORTHEAST TRADES NORTH OF THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD PROMOTE QUIETER WEATHER FOR
MAJURO...AND POSSIBLY FOR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES GREATLY BETWEEN MODELS ON THE FUTURE STATUS
OF 90W. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ONE WHICH DEVELOPS 90W
INTO A MIDGET TYPHOON BETWEEN GUAM AND YAP BY TUESDAY. THE NOGAPS
IS A LITTLE MORE REALISTIC BY TURNING 90W INTO A SMALL TROPICAL
STORM NORTH OF YAP ON THURSDAY. WHILE BOTH UKMET AND ECMWF ARE
TRACKING 90W AS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KT WINDS
INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS STILL PERSISTING OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND MARIANAS
ISLANDS. UNTIL THIS FEATURE STARTS WEAKENING...90W WILL NOT MAKE
A WEST- NORTHWEST TURN FROM NEAR CHUUK. THIS COULD CAUSE IT TO
REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF CHUUK LONGER AND GAIN MORE TIME FOR
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT NEAR TERM FORECAST FOR
CHUUK AS BEFORE BUT TONED DOWN THE WINDS AND SEAS A BIT. FOR THE
SHORT TERM...YAP WILL BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE RIDGE WITH NICE
WEATHER. HAVE INTRODUCED CLOUDINESS BY TUESDAY AND ADJUST THE
WINDS AS 90W PASSES NORTH OF THE ISLAND. THE WEAK CIRCULATION
SOUTHEAST OF KOROR WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL TODAY INTO
SUNDAY AND COULD SPARK OFF SOME CONVECTION. BY SUNDAY EVENING...
IT WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE RIDGE. IN THE LONGER RUN...90W SHOULD
PASS WELL NORTH OF KOROR WITH MINIMAL EFFECTS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/CHAN

[euro6208]

this should be upgraded soon...very organized...

typhoon2000...

The strong Low Pressure Area (90W/1006 MB) over the Caroline & Micronesian Islands, near Chuuk is now consolidating and is likely to develop into a Tropical Depression within the next 06 to 24 hours. The center was located about 1,503 km SE of Guam or 3,225 km ESE of Mindanao, Philippines (5.2N 155.7E)...max winds of 35 kph...currently moving West @ 24 kph towards Western Micronesia. Its thick and broad convective rainbands will bring scattered rains with squalls and thunderstorms across Chuuk and other parts of Micronesia today.

[dexterlabio]

a TCFA? wow I thought it was too soon, but what can I expect...

ECMWF doesn't show any significant TC's developing over the next 10 days, maybe a couple of weak low pressure systems, but their June 6 12z run showed some sort of a TC developing...and I think we can't just disregard that. It would still be interesting to monitor the WPAC at times like this.

[cycloneye]

A special statement from the Guam NWS.


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1137 AM CHST SAT JUN 9 2012

PMZ171-172-092100-
YAP-CHUUK-
1137 AM CHST SAT JUN 9 2012

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK LAGOON...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR THE LOWER MORTLOCK ISLANDS
IN CHUUK STATE NEAR 5N AND 154E AT 1000 AM CHST. A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT WAS ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER ON
THIS SYSTEM EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 MILES PER HOUR.

THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
CONSOLIDATED NEARER THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS MEANS
THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF CHUUK LAGOON THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE LOWER MORTLOCK ISLANDS INCLUDING
NAMOLUK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK LAGOON. RAIN IN THESE AREAS WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATING ON SOME OF THE ATOLLS IN THE LOWER
MORTLOCKS. WINDS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MORTLOCKS MAY GUST TO 25
MPH NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RESIDENTS OF THE ATOLLS SITUATED BETWEEN CHUUK LAGOON AND YAP NEED
TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS
INCLUDES RESIDENTS OF PULUWAT AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS IN CHUUK STATE
AND SATAWAL...WOLEAI AND FARAULEP IN YAP STATE. PULUWAT COULD BEGIN
RECEIVING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

OPEN-OCEAN SEAS ACROSS WESTERN CHUUK STATE AND EASTERN YAP STATE ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 FEET DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT
THEY WILL INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. HAZARDOUS
SURF IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT COULD DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. RIP CURRENT RISK WILL INCREASE TO HIGH AS SEAS CONTINUE
TO BUILD.

INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED AT THIS TIME FOR RESIDENTS OF
WESTERN CHUUK STATE AND EASTERN YAP STATE. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND CHECK
WITH THEIR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE BEFORE ATTEMPTING SUCH
TRAVEL. KEEP ALERT FOR ANY LATER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS OR
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

$$

MCELROY/GUARD

[Typhoon Hunter]

And now it has rapidly "poofed," let's see if it can make a comeback!

[cycloneye]

And now it has rapidly "poofed," let's see if it can make a comeback!

That is why I like to follow the tropics as changes occur all the time and what you see now, 6 hours later is gone or has grown The ups and downs of systems,the models going from bullish to nothing etc etc increase the uncertainties and I love that.

[euro6208]

home from work and kinda surprised that this rapidly weakened...but still remains HIGH let's see if it can make a comeback...



1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.2N
155.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 152.9E, APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING, ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
DESPITE A STRONG (ALTHOUGH WEAKENING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS) MID-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, A 090542Z SSMI PARTIAL 37 GHZ IMAGE AND A
090313Z AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATE A POORLY-DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAK
CONVECTIVE BANDING. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE TRACKING
WESTWARD AND SLOWLY DEVELOPING AS FORECASTED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE
DYNAMIC MODELS. A 090149Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWED A WEAK (05-10 KNOTS)
ELONGATED CIRCULATION (AS WELL AS THE UW-CIMSS 850MB VORTICITY
PRODUCT). ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CHUUK ARE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH AT 1008 TO 1009 MB WITH WEAK WINDS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE,
DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAK POLEWARD FLOW INTO A TUTT CELL NEAR
17N 153E. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS CONVERGENT FLOW
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER GUAM, WHICH MAY HINDER FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW
082030) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I just made a video on this area plus other areas in the west pac... but the start and end is a weather share so ya. Just ignore that if dive right in to the storm invest coverage. Thanks!!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6ym0LvIGe4[/youtube]

[senorpepr]

Down to medium:


ABPW10 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/092030Z-100600ZJUN2012//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082021ZJUN2012//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.6N
152.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 150.2E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DIURNAL FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DESPITE A STRONG (ALTHOUGH WEAKENING
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS) MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, A 091555Z
AMSU-B PARTIAL 85 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A POORLY-DEFINED LLCC WITH
WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND DYNAMIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT
HAS BACKED OFF. A 090739Z WINDSAT IMAGE SHOWED A WEAK (05-10 KNOTS)
ELONGATED CIRCULATION (AS WELL AS THE UW-CIMSS 850MB VORTICITY
PRODUCT). ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THROUGHOUT THE
AREA ARE CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH AT 1008 TO 1009 MB WITH WEAK (5 TO
10 KNOT) WINDS. UPPERLEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE, DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAK POLEWARD FLOW INTO
A TUTT CELL NEAR 17N 153E. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
DEPICTS CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER GUAM, WHICH MAY HINDER FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM HAS NOT CONSOLIDATED AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. SEE REF A

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 092048
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
648 AM CHST SUN JUN 10 2012

PMZ171-172-102100-
YAP-CHUUK-
648 AM CHST SUN JUN 10 2012

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH CHUUK STATE...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK LAGOON NEAR
6N AND 151E AT 400 AM CHST. THE DISTURBANCE HAS NOT CONSOLIDATED AS
QUICKLY AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...SO THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER HAS CANCELED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED
SATURDAY. THE DISTURBANCE HAS CONTINUED MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 MILES PER HOUR.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
EXTENDS ABOUT 90 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTER. THIS MEANS
THAT GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD AFFECT PULUWAT...
ULUL AND SATAWAL AS WELL AS OTHER NEARBY ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
RAINFALL COULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RESIDENTS OF THE ATOLLS SITUATED BETWEEN SATAWAL AND YAP NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS
INCLUDES RESIDENTS OF WOLEAI AND FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.

OPEN-OCEAN SEAS ACROSS WESTERN CHUUK STATE AND EASTERN YAP STATE ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 8 FEET DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
THEY COULD INCREASE IF THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. HAZARDOUS SURF IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT COULD DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL INCREASE TO HIGH AS SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD.

INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED AT THIS TIME FOR RESIDENTS OF
WESTERN CHUUK STATE AND EASTERN YAP STATE. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND CHECK
WITH THEIR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE BEFORE ATTEMPTING SUCH
TRAVEL. KEEP ALERT FOR ANY LATER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS OR
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

$$

STANKO

TXPQ28 KNES 092148
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 09/2032Z

C. 5.7N

D. 150.9E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...BROKEN CONVECTION HAS REGENERATED NEAR A WEAK LLCC IN THE
PAST 6HR BUT HAS SINCE BEGUN TO WANE ONCE AGAIN. SWIR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THE LOW LEVEL TO BE SLIGHTLY EXPOSED AND LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
CONVECTION. DT OF 1.0 IS BASED ON 0.2 BANDING. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[dexterlabio]

looks like convection is building up near the center of circulation.