EPAC: CARLOTTA - Post-Tropical

[Extratropical94]

Here we go:

BEGIN
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invest_ep942012.invest
FSTDA
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201206121152
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012061212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP942012
EP, 94, 2012061212, , BEST, 0, 75N, 860W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

20% at NHC:

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

Here we go again! Could Carlotta finally be on it's way.

[euro6208]

wow nothing significant from euro. all i see are weak small low pressure areas then dissipating.

[Extratropical94]

[Yellow Evan]

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, here comes the big one. The question is, will it affect land?

[Extratropical94]

12Z GFS has both systems (94E and 95E) crashing into Mexico

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Nogaps brings 95E towards Baja California and keeps 94E away from the coast

[Yellow Evan]

Ouch.

[Kingarabian]

Very interesting!

[Macrocane]

This one has produced heavy rains in southern Central America, and may produce heavy rains in the northern part as it moves northwestward.

[cycloneye]

The first tropical model run came out late but here it is.

WHXX01 KMIA 122115
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2115 UTC TUE JUN 12 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942012) 20120612 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120612 1800 120613 0600 120613 1800 120614 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 6.6N 86.5W 7.2N 87.7W 8.5N 88.7W 10.3N 90.0W
BAMD 6.6N 86.5W 6.9N 88.1W 7.7N 89.1W 9.0N 89.9W
BAMM 6.6N 86.5W 7.3N 88.1W 8.5N 89.3W 10.3N 90.5W
LBAR 6.6N 86.5W 7.0N 88.6W 7.9N 90.9W 9.1N 93.3W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 48KTS 59KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 48KTS 59KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120614 1800 120615 1800 120616 1800 120617 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 91.3W 15.4N 93.6W 18.4N 95.2W 19.1N 96.7W
BAMD 11.1N 90.6W 15.7N 91.8W 18.8N 91.9W 18.6N 90.4W
BAMM 12.5N 91.7W 16.6N 94.0W 19.0N 95.5W 19.1N 97.0W
LBAR 10.5N 95.7W 14.3N 100.4W 19.1N 103.9W 23.0N 105.5W
SHIP 69KTS 68KTS 64KTS 61KTS
DSHP 69KTS 50KTS 34KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 6.6N LONCUR = 86.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 6.1N LONM12 = 83.5W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 6.1N LONM24 = 80.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Yellow Evan]

Don't tell me we have another Agatha.

[Yellow Evan]

The first tropical model run came out late but here it is.

WHXX01 KMIA 122115
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2115 UTC TUE JUN 12 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942012) 20120612 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120612 1800 120613 0600 120613 1800 120614 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 6.6N 86.5W 7.2N 87.7W 8.5N 88.7W 10.3N 90.0W
BAMD 6.6N 86.5W 6.9N 88.1W 7.7N 89.1W 9.0N 89.9W
BAMM 6.6N 86.5W 7.3N 88.1W 8.5N 89.3W 10.3N 90.5W
LBAR 6.6N 86.5W 7.0N 88.6W 7.9N 90.9W 9.1N 93.3W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 48KTS 59KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 48KTS 59KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120614 1800 120615 1800 120616 1800 120617 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 91.3W 15.4N 93.6W 18.4N 95.2W 19.1N 96.7W
BAMD 11.1N 90.6W 15.7N 91.8W 18.8N 91.9W 18.6N 90.4W
BAMM 12.5N 91.7W 16.6N 94.0W 19.0N 95.5W 19.1N 97.0W
LBAR 10.5N 95.7W 14.3N 100.4W 19.1N 103.9W 23.0N 105.5W
SHIP 69KTS 68KTS 64KTS 61KTS
DSHP 69KTS 50KTS 34KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 6.6N LONCUR = 86.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 6.1N LONM12 = 83.5W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 6.1N LONM24 = 80.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

A lot of uncertainty in the storm's track.

[Macrocane]

Don't tell me we have another Agatha.

Oh no, hopefully not. Although the tropical and the dynamical models are kind of bullish.

[Yellow Evan]

TWO should be out soon.

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE
BORDER OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

Development becoming more and more likely.

[Cyclenall]

This is the big one the models have been bullish on for 10 days now! Could be a compact microcane and has a high chance of hitting land. I like the position the most and was waiting for an ultra-east Invest. Very quick strengthening is suggested during the next 48-72 hours.

NHC TWD:

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122208
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUN 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHOWN MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR EPAC BETWEEN 86W AND 94W...
WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SUGGESTED NEAR
07N87W. GAP WIND FLOW ACCELERATING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO IS PRODUCING AN ELONGATED PLUME OF NE TO E WINDS 20 TO
25 KT ACROSS THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS AREA...WHILE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1544 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT A
SURFACE LOW HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP NEAR 08.5N89W. THIS CIRCULATION
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ELONGATED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH
PREVAILING BETWEEN 80W AND 120W...WHERE ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE PERSISTS. ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT HAS
A MODERATE CHANGE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AS IT SHIFTS NW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE RATHER
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...SUGGESTING IS
COULD DEEPEN QUICKLY. INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF
GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEAST MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM.

*Cut*

E OF 120W...THE EPAC MONSOON TROUGH HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED
AND NOW EXTENDS DEEPER INTO THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...AND EXTENDS
FROM NW COLOMBIA/PANAMA TO A WEAKENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LOW NEAR
12N120W. IN ADDITION TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE...AND THE LOW
ALONG 120W...TWO TO THREE OTHER LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS
ARE NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH...BUT ARE LIKELY TRANSIENT AND NOT
LIKELY TO PERSIST BEYOND 24 HOURS. AFTERNOON SCATTEROMETER
PASSES DEPICTED CLASSIC MONSOONAL WINDS S OF THE TROUGH...WITH
AREAS OF SW TO W WINDS NEAR 20 KT...FUELING ACTIVE CONVECTION...
FROM 82W TO 110W. TPW ANIMATIONS SHOW ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONVERGING ON BOTH SIDES OF THE TROUGH MAKING FOR A VERY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. VERY LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA IS ALLOWING FOR THE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION TO FURTHER
DIVERT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION...PROVIDING AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE AND SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION
AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS.

*Cut*

$$
STRIPLING

[cycloneye]

I imagine that NHC will have recon for this potentially dangerous system. I guess Wednesdays TCPOD will have information.

[Cyclenall]

I imagine that NHC will have recon for this potentially dangerous system. I guess Wednesdays TCPOD will have information.

Oh yeah, that didn't even cross my mind yet. That's good but the big question is, will they get in there during peak strength or will the endless streak of coming in when it starts looking pathetic continue? I think recon got in Bud even 1 hour too late which shocked even me considering the odds...we were so sure .