EPAC: CARLOTTA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Recon also scheduled for tomorrow

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 15/1800Z ON TROPICAL STORM
CARLOTTA WILL FLY AS SCHEDULED.
JWP

Here is the link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

Recon is not scheduled for tomorrow.

Tomorrow's schedule says "negative reconnaissance requirement." The only mission schedule, as noted in section 3, is the current mission.

Sorry, I thought today was the 14th for some reason.

[CrazyC83]

SFMR 87 kt - supports Category 2, perhaps 90 kt intensity

[Aric Dunn]

974.6mb

000
URPN15 KNHC 151905
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 38 20120615
185630 1429N 09615W 6967 02951 9752 +158 +063 233001 005 025 000 00
185700 1430N 09617W 6961 02957 9747 +161 +058 043010 014 028 000 00
185730 1431N 09618W 6963 02954 9746 +164 +059 040020 021 032 001 03
185800 1432N 09620W 6967 02953 9759 +152 +078 043027 032 051 003 00
185830 1433N 09621W 6966 02962 9796 +124 +098 039042 047 064 004 00
185900 1434N 09622W 6956 02979 //// +097 //// 042050 052 072 008 01
185930 1436N 09623W 6962 02987 //// +082 //// 050065 068 072 011 01
190000 1437N 09625W 6966 02996 //// +071 //// 044069 070 069 015 01
190030 1438N 09626W 6960 03016 //// +070 //// 043068 070 068 017 01
190100 1439N 09627W 6961 03025 //// +068 //// 046071 072 068 017 01
190130 1440N 09628W 6959 03041 //// +062 //// 043073 075 068 015 01
190200 1442N 09629W 6965 03042 //// +063 //// 044070 073 068 015 01
190230 1443N 09631W 6964 03055 //// +063 //// 046072 074 067 020 01
190300 1444N 09632W 6959 03063 //// +062 //// 049073 075 067 021 01
190330 1445N 09633W 6977 03054 //// +065 //// 051070 074 067 019 01
190400 1446N 09634W 6962 03075 //// +061 //// 052070 071 067 019 01
190430 1448N 09636W 6975 03070 9995 +070 +070 054067 069 063 011 01
190500 1449N 09637W 6956 03100 0000 +080 +080 054067 068 063 011 01
190530 1450N 09638W 6962 03098 0000 +080 +080 059064 066 061 013 01
190600 1451N 09640W 6960 03106 //// +072 //// 059063 064 058 012 01
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

Based on the data, it appears 975mb and 85 kt for current intensity.

[RL3AO]

Based on the data, it appears 975mb and 85 kt for current intensity.

Sorry, but I buy nothing that SMFR is selling. Shows surface winds of 85 while at the same time showing FL winds of 80...something doesn't add up.

[Aric Dunn]

000
URPN15 KNHC 151914
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 39 20120615
190630 1453N 09641W 6959 03110 //// +067 //// 060064 065 055 014 01
190700 1454N 09642W 6961 03111 //// +071 //// 062068 071 051 012 01
190730 1455N 09644W 6964 03119 //// +066 //// 055059 068 051 010 01
190800 1457N 09645W 6965 03116 //// +064 //// 051057 059 050 010 01
190830 1458N 09646W 6972 03109 //// +062 //// 054055 058 047 009 01
190900 1459N 09647W 6966 03125 0048 +070 +070 049048 052 054 014 05
190930 1500N 09649W 6957 03131 //// +072 //// 034038 048 053 050 01
191000 1502N 09650W 6974 03106 //// +066 //// 047039 046 052 040 05
191030 1503N 09651W 6965 03119 //// +056 //// 049057 061 055 032 01
191100 1504N 09653W 6956 03127 //// +055 //// 049055 061 049 028 01
191130 1505N 09654W 6992 03089 //// +058 //// 059060 066 049 017 01
191200 1507N 09655W 6965 03122 //// +062 //// 057057 060 047 013 01
191230 1508N 09656W 6963 03121 //// +059 //// 058051 055 046 011 01
191300 1509N 09658W 6954 03133 //// +059 //// 059048 051 046 011 01
191330 1511N 09659W 6980 03111 0048 +070 +070 059055 057 046 007 01
191400 1512N 09700W 6960 03132 0040 +070 +070 055053 054 044 006 01
191430 1513N 09702W 6961 03133 0052 +070 +070 051051 052 044 006 01
191500 1514N 09703W 6963 03133 0055 +070 +070 055052 053 043 007 01
191530 1516N 09704W 6962 03138 //// +064 //// 056051 052 043 009 01
191600 1517N 09706W 6962 03139 0061 +070 +070 057049 050 043 010 01
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

Based on the data, it appears 975mb and 85 kt for current intensity.

Sorry, but I buy nothing that SMFR is selling. Shows surface winds of 85 while at the same time showing FL winds of 80...something doesn't add up.

That's not uncommon, especially in small or rapidly deepening storms.

[RL3AO]

000
UZPN13 KNHC 151750
XXAA 65177 99145 70959 04645 99985 24601 07586 00636 ///// /////
92548 21800 11582 85284 19603 11576 70946 12435 14047 88999 77999
31313 09608 81721
61616 AF305 0103E CARLOTTA OB 10
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 1451N09603W 1726 MBL WND 09586 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 11574 984696 WL150 08589 084 REL 1446N09593W 172114 SPG 145
1N09602W 172555 =
XXBB 65178 99145 70959 04645 00985 24601 11850 19603 22742 14631
33720 15638 44696 11835
21212 00985 07586 11969 09090 22939 10583 33930 11587 44919 11074
55907 12084 66892 11574 77881 11581 88873 11576 99850 11576 11744
13073 22696 14045
31313 09608 81721
61616 AF305 0103E CARLOTTA OB 10
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 1451N09603W 1726 MBL WND 09586 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 11574 984696 WL150 08589 084 REL 1446N09593W 172114 SPG 145
1N09602W 172555 =
;


Surface of 86kt in NE eyewall.

However Derek Ortt always told people to use 85% of MBL wind which is also 86kt.

[Yellow Evan]

I think 80 knts would be a good estimate, but the RBT has it at 75 knts.

[Aric Dunn]

000
URPN12 KNHC 151920
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP032012
A. 15/18:56:40Z
B. 14 deg 29 min N
096 deg 15 min W
C. 700 mb 2911 m
D. 87 kt
E. 136 deg 19 nm
F. 227 deg 84 kt
G. 135 deg 20 nm
H. 976 mb
I. 7 C / 3056 m
J. 16 C / 3050 m
K. 6 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF305 0103E CARLOTTA OB 15
MAX FL WIND 92 KT NE QUAD 17:20:00Z
;

[Aric Dunn]

000
URPN15 KNHC 151934
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 41 20120615
192630 1544N 09733W 6958 03170 0080 +074 +069 061026 028 034 004 00
192700 1545N 09735W 6967 03160 0076 +078 +065 064028 029 037 002 00
192730 1546N 09736W 6962 03166 0073 +082 +061 064028 029 036 002 00
192800 1546N 09736W 6962 03166 0071 +085 +054 064026 027 036 001 03
192830 1547N 09739W 6963 03166 0071 +085 +048 059023 024 /// /// 03
192900 1545N 09740W 6967 03162 0073 +085 +050 058023 023 033 001 00
192930 1544N 09741W 6963 03167 0072 +085 +053 056024 024 034 001 00
193000 1542N 09742W 6961 03170 0076 +081 +057 053022 024 034 001 00
193030 1540N 09743W 6964 03165 0077 +080 +062 051022 024 032 002 00
193100 1539N 09744W 6963 03167 0078 +078 +065 045022 022 032 002 00
193130 1537N 09745W 6961 03168 0082 +075 +065 044024 024 032 002 00
193200 1535N 09746W 6965 03162 0076 +080 +059 045026 027 033 002 00
193230 1533N 09747W 6963 03164 0075 +080 +060 044027 028 032 003 00
193300 1532N 09747W 6963 03164 0075 +079 +060 046028 029 033 003 00
193330 1530N 09748W 6965 03160 0080 +073 +066 046029 029 035 004 00
193400 1528N 09749W 6963 03159 0080 +070 +066 047033 034 037 004 00
193430 1526N 09750W 6963 03158 0080 +070 +068 048031 034 039 009 00
193500 1524N 09751W 6969 03143 //// +067 //// 024026 031 042 011 01
193530 1523N 09752W 6965 03153 0077 +070 +070 031027 032 040 010 01
193600 1521N 09753W 6955 03165 0096 +060 +060 035037 038 039 009 01
$$
;

[Cyclenall]

Latest:



Eye is very round and just needs to clear out. It appears Carlotta is fighting back the Mexican influence and the convection to the north is looking more meaty. What would be really cool to see is the cyclone evolve to avoid harm to the structure of itself by becoming smaller. Its under amazing conditions so we'll see if that can fend off the negative land-interaction forces.

I expect the RBT to be any value above 75 knots but leaving it there would be very questionable.

[Aric Dunn]

000
URPN15 KNHC 151944
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 42 20120615
193630 1519N 09754W 6950 03172 0096 +060 +060 032037 037 039 008 01
193700 1517N 09755W 6966 03153 0097 +060 +060 031031 037 039 009 01
193730 1515N 09755W 6980 03139 0098 +060 +060 014019 028 039 011 01
193800 1513N 09756W 6976 03147 //// +051 //// 355010 020 040 011 01
193830 1511N 09756W 6961 03164 0079 +070 +070 046010 012 039 010 01
193900 1510N 09757W 6963 03165 0081 +070 +070 342012 017 037 006 01
193930 1508N 09758W 6952 03177 0085 +070 +070 321013 015 037 006 01
194000 1507N 09759W 6967 03159 0078 +070 +070 306012 014 036 006 01
194030 1505N 09800W 6963 03164 0072 +080 +071 311012 013 035 004 00
194100 1504N 09801W 6966 03160 0079 +075 +073 326015 016 035 004 00
194130 1502N 09802W 6964 03164 0077 +078 +073 326013 015 035 003 00
194200 1501N 09804W 6961 03170 0077 +080 +071 323012 012 033 004 00
194230 1500N 09805W 6964 03165 0079 +077 +072 319009 011 034 002 00
194300 1458N 09806W 6962 03167 0079 +070 +070 335007 008 033 003 01
194330 1457N 09807W 6962 03168 0086 +070 +070 022007 009 034 004 01
194400 1455N 09808W 6963 03168 0074 +083 +078 040009 010 035 004 00
194430 1453N 09808W 6964 03167 0081 +078 +073 034007 009 034 007 00
194500 1452N 09809W 6967 03165 0077 +082 +068 010007 009 033 007 00
194530 1450N 09810W 6965 03168 0073 +086 +062 352007 009 032 006 00
194600 1448N 09811W 6958 03176 0076 +082 +070 015012 012 030 005 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

000
URPN15 KNHC 151954
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 43 20120615
194630 1447N 09812W 6963 03171 0079 +080 +070 017012 013 029 003 00
194700 1445N 09813W 6961 03173 0080 +080 +072 020011 012 030 003 00
194730 1443N 09814W 6965 03168 0088 +074 +074 014012 013 029 003 00
194800 1442N 09815W 6959 03176 0087 +075 +072 358013 014 029 004 00
194830 1442N 09815W 6959 03176 0082 +080 +066 328010 012 030 005 00
194900 1438N 09817W 6963 03170 0081 +080 +062 317009 010 029 004 03
194930 1437N 09816W 6959 03176 0082 +080 +063 315007 008 /// /// 03
195000 1437N 09814W 6966 03167 0080 +082 +060 306009 009 030 005 00
195030 1437N 09812W 6962 03172 0080 +082 +062 314009 010 031 004 00
195100 1437N 09810W 6962 03172 0081 +082 +064 330009 010 031 003 00
195130 1437N 09808W 6963 03172 0087 +076 +069 337012 012 030 003 00
195200 1437N 09806W 6963 03171 0085 +078 +069 328012 013 031 003 00
195230 1437N 09804W 6964 03171 0082 +080 +067 321011 013 030 003 00
195300 1437N 09803W 6963 03170 0080 +080 +067 308011 011 032 003 00
195330 1437N 09801W 6961 03172 0080 +080 +068 313013 014 033 004 00
195400 1437N 09759W 6962 03170 0080 +079 +069 322014 015 034 003 00
195430 1437N 09757W 6963 03168 0087 +074 +070 326014 015 034 004 00
195500 1437N 09755W 6965 03167 0096 +070 +070 340021 022 034 004 01
195530 1437N 09753W 6958 03173 0095 +070 +070 326019 021 035 007 01
195600 1437N 09751W 6958 03174 0104 +060 +060 322021 024 036 007 01
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

000
URPN15 KNHC 152004
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 44 20120615
195630 1437N 09749W 6967 03161 0100 +060 +060 324021 024 035 008 01
195700 1437N 09747W 6959 03172 0092 +070 +070 334016 020 037 008 01
195730 1437N 09745W 6963 03166 0096 +070 +070 333015 016 038 007 01
195800 1437N 09743W 6962 03167 0090 +070 +070 329016 017 039 008 01
195830 1437N 09743W 6962 03167 0090 +070 +070 332016 016 039 008 01
195900 1437N 09740W 6961 03166 0085 +070 +070 348015 016 040 009 01
195930 1437N 09738W 6962 03163 0088 +070 +070 355015 016 041 010 01
200000 1437N 09736W 6963 03160 0087 +060 +060 002015 016 043 012 01
200030 1437N 09734W 6961 03159 0090 +060 +060 360016 018 042 013 01
200100 1437N 09732W 6962 03156 0082 +060 +060 352015 017 043 014 01
200130 1437N 09731W 6963 03154 0080 +060 +060 350013 015 043 013 01
200200 1437N 09729W 6962 03154 0069 +070 +070 349017 019 043 014 01
200230 1437N 09727W 6961 03155 0058 +080 +078 338018 019 044 010 00
200300 1437N 09725W 6962 03151 0059 +070 +070 332019 019 045 008 01
200330 1437N 09723W 6963 03150 0059 +070 +070 335019 020 045 008 01
200400 1437N 09721W 6961 03150 0056 +080 +080 340022 023 045 006 01
200430 1437N 09719W 6966 03144 0072 +070 +070 334024 025 045 006 01
200500 1437N 09717W 6961 03148 0069 +070 +070 338030 030 047 006 01
200530 1437N 09715W 6962 03145 0070 +070 +070 346033 034 046 006 01
200600 1437N 09714W 6966 03137 //// +062 //// 348030 032 046 006 01
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

000
URPN15 KNHC 152015
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 45 20120615
200630 1437N 09712W 6962 03139 0060 +070 +070 002027 028 046 008 01
200700 1437N 09710W 6960 03140 0049 +070 +070 006029 032 047 009 01
200730 1437N 09708W 6962 03134 0046 +080 +080 005032 035 047 009 01
200800 1437N 09706W 6957 03140 //// +066 //// 011040 043 048 010 01
200830 1437N 09705W 6950 03144 //// +063 //// 011042 045 050 011 01
200900 1437N 09703W 6958 03134 0043 +080 +080 007043 045 050 010 05
200930 1437N 09701W 6960 03128 0041 +080 +080 003043 044 051 009 01
201000 1436N 09659W 6966 03117 0026 +080 +080 359048 050 052 009 01
201030 1435N 09658W 6962 03123 //// +071 //// 352046 049 053 009 01
201100 1435N 09656W 6962 03115 0026 +080 +080 345044 047 055 009 05
201130 1434N 09654W 6962 03114 //// +070 //// 341040 044 056 009 01
201200 1433N 09652W 6962 03110 0020 +080 +080 332039 040 058 009 01
201230 1433N 09650W 6963 03104 0020 +070 +070 332040 042 058 008 01
201300 1432N 09648W 6963 03103 //// +067 //// 331044 047 059 008 01
201330 1431N 09646W 6962 03098 //// +067 //// 331047 048 060 011 01
201400 1430N 09644W 6964 03095 //// +067 //// 333044 047 060 011 01
201430 1429N 09642W 6963 03092 //// +063 //// 319044 045 061 009 05
201500 1429N 09640W 6981 03066 //// +065 //// 319054 061 063 015 01
201530 1429N 09638W 6950 03098 //// +061 //// 320068 072 065 019 01
201600 1429N 09636W 6964 03069 //// +066 //// 319071 074 067 022 01
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

I would personally go with 90 kt at the advisory, based on the assumption it has strenghtened since (as the pressure dropped quite a bit between eye passes).

[Aric Dunn]

90kt west quad. pressure about the same.
000
URPN15 KNHC 152027
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 46 20120615
201630 1429N 09634W 6964 03060 9965 +080 +080 311069 072 068 022 01
201700 1429N 09631W 6961 03059 //// +064 //// 301079 084 071 025 01
201730 1429N 09629W 6965 03043 //// +064 //// 315087 090 071 037 01
201800 1430N 09627W 6963 03033 //// +065 //// 317078 089 074 043 01
201830 1431N 09626W 6966 03028 //// +064 //// 315080 089 076 038 01
201900 1431N 09624W 6964 03025 //// +070 //// 309076 078 077 019 01
201930 1432N 09622W 6964 03013 //// +071 //// 300077 085 077 034 01
202000 1434N 09621W 6951 03008 //// +077 //// 296069 081 088 032 01
202030 1435N 09619W 6967 02966 //// +087 //// 291065 073 098 015 01
202100 1436N 09618W 6963 02956 9786 +125 +092 290046 055 096 013 00
202130 1438N 09617W 6957 02953 9753 +145 +091 280023 035 074 005 03
202200 1440N 09617W 6964 02946 9747 +152 +081 239009 016 047 003 03
202230 1442N 09617W 6965 02946 9751 +151 +065 177006 007 034 001 03
202300 1443N 09619W 6961 02952 9762 +141 +077 116002 005 032 003 00
202330 1444N 09620W 6964 02948 9768 +137 +081 040002 003 034 002 00
202400 1446N 09620W 6961 02952 9758 +146 +058 075006 008 034 002 00
202430 1447N 09621W 6965 02948 9750 +156 +052 061009 009 037 001 00
202500 1449N 09621W 6962 02952 9741 +163 +056 053008 010 044 002 00
202530 1449N 09621W 6962 02952 9744 +160 +068 063013 019 052 001 00
202600 1453N 09622W 6964 02949 9754 +149 +093 060027 030 068 006 00
$$
;

[RL3AO]

000
UZPN13 KNHC 151921
XXAA 65197 99145 70963 04646 99976 26811 05015 00715 ///// /////
92476 24008 03011 85218 23856 12003 70902 166// 04005 88999 77999
31313 09608 81856
61616 AF305 0103E CARLOTTA OB 16
62626 EYE SPL 1449N09627W 1901 MBL WND 04513 AEV 20802 DLM WND 06
005 976696 WL150 04514 083 REL 1449N09627W 185646 SPG 1449N09627W
190029 =
XXBB 65198 99145 70963 04646 00976 26811 11887 22212 22876 23856
33850 23856 44786 22861 55706 ///// 66696 154//
21212 00976 05015 11910 03510 22850 12003 33696 04006
31313 09608 81856
61616 AF305 0103E CARLOTTA OB 16
62626 EYE SPL 1449N09627W 1901 MBL WND 04513 AEV 20802 DLM WND 06
005 976696 WL150 04514 083 REL 1449N09627W 185646 SPG 1449N09627W
190029 =
;


Eye splash - 976mb/15kt



000
UZPN13 KNHC 151923
XXAA 65197 99146 70964 04646 99988 25403 34068 00603 ///// /////
92581 21201 00578 85314 18202 02071 70960 08201 04567 88999 77999
31313 09608 81900
61616 AF305 0103E CARLOTTA OB 17
62626 EYEWALL 315 SPL 1454N09645W 1904 MBL WND 35579 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 02070 988697 WL150 35077 083 REL 1462N09642W 190003 SPG 145
4N09644W 190426 =
XXBB 65198 99146 70964 04646 00988 25403 11850 18202 22708 11603
33697 07000
21212 00988 34068 11982 35080 22976 35577 33933 00582 44924 00578
55897 01078 66871 02071 77850 02071 88774 02069 99697 04568
31313 09608 81900
61616 AF305 0103E CARLOTTA OB 17
62626 EYEWALL 315 SPL 1454N09645W 1904 MBL WND 35579 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 02070 988697 WL150 35077 083 REL 1462N09642W 190003 SPG 145
4N09644W 190426 =
;

NW eyewall - 68kt

[Aric Dunn]

99kts fl 92 and 93kt sfmr

000
URPN15 KNHC 152034
AF305 0103E CARLOTTA HDOB 47 20120615
202630 1454N 09622W 6963 02958 9767 +143 +095 065040 047 085 003 00
202700 1456N 09622W 6958 02975 9791 +130 +096 067056 062 092 001 00
202730 1458N 09622W 6959 02982 9821 +112 +112 071074 078 093 003 00
202800 1459N 09623W 6962 02992 //// +085 //// 074085 090 076 009 01
202830 1501N 09623W 6967 02996 //// +069 //// 079093 097 069 020 01
202900 1502N 09623W 6976 02997 //// +062 //// 079088 093 069 016 01
202930 1504N 09624W 6958 03030 //// +063 //// 088098 099 068 015 01
203000 1506N 09624W 6962 03038 //// +065 //// 088089 096 066 012 01
203030 1507N 09624W 6962 03053 //// +065 //// 087087 088 062 011 01
203100 1509N 09625W 6783 03264 //// +060 //// 089082 086 061 012 05
203130 1511N 09625W 6546 03577 9944 +060 +060 089079 083 /// /// 05
203200 1513N 09625W 6296 03906 9956 +040 +040 087071 076 /// /// 05
203230 1514N 09625W 6051 04236 9965 +020 +020 084068 069 /// /// 05
203300 1516N 09626W 5840 04518 9958 +010 +010 088066 068 /// /// 05
203330 1518N 09626W 5676 04753 9939 +000 +000 090065 066 /// /// 05
203400 1520N 09626W 5505 05004 9923 -001 -001 089066 067 /// /// 03
203430 1522N 09627W 5337 05255 0167 +000 +000 090063 066 061 023 05
203500 1524N 09627W 5169 05514 0187 -032 //// 094060 063 058 028 01
203530 1526N 09627W 5000 05775 0205 -050 //// 090057 061 053 022 01
203600 1526N 09627W 5000 05775 0225 -056 //// 093056 058 050 016 01
$$
;