WTPN32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (TALIM) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 24.0N 118.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 118.4E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 26.8N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 21 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 29.5N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 31.6N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 33.8N 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 38.2N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 119.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND
210900Z.//
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WDPN32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (TALIM) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, AND HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS REMAINED
PARTLY EXPOSED AND HAS NOW ENTERED THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND MOVED CLOSER
TO THE COAST OF MAINLAND CHINA. THE STORM MOTION HAS BEEN A BIT
WOBBLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE
ABOVE ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD OF 45 KNOTS AND 42 KNOTS,
RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 05 DEGREES
NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
ANIMATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 06W WILL STRUGGLE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY AS IT CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO STRONG VWS ALOFT
AND AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE COASTAL TOPOGRAPHY OF CHINA AND TAIWAN.
ADDITIONALLY THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE STRAIT ARE
RELATIVELY COOLER (BELOW 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). THERE IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS DUE TO THESE COMBINED DYNAMICS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR
THIS TIME FRAME IS BASED ON A SMOOTH TRACK ACROSS OPEN WATER. AFTER
THE SYSTEM EMERGES IN THE EAST CHINA SEA, THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS,
ALBEIT AT JET INTENSITY, WILL BE MORE IN PHASE WITH STORM MOTION,
CAUSING A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN THE VWS. THE INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE
STRONG WESTERLIES WILL ALSO FAVOR A POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THIS
DEVELOPMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM AT MODERATE TS INTENSITY AS IT
SKIMS THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE JAPANESE ISLAND CHAIN. BY TAU 36, TS
06W WILL COMMENCE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), COMPLETING ETT BY
END OF FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE
ENVELOPE RUNNING INTO MAINLAND JAPAN. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE
RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST,
GIVEN THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE INITIAL 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK BUT POOR
CONFIDENCE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. //
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