WPAC: DOKSURI - Post-Tropical

[senorpepr]

There it is. We'll transition this topic to TD 95W.

[ManilaTC]

Latest warning by JMA:

WTPQ20 RJTD 252100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 252100UTC 12.2N 133.2E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 262100UTC 13.8N 130.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[dhoeze]

Anyone has the updated forecasted track of this system?

thanks gurus!

[dexterlabio]

TCFA already issued by JTWC.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Anyone has the updated forecasted track of this system?

thanks gurus!

If you go back a page you can see my video I posted yesterday on this.

Plus here is some of the info on the TCFA from JTWC

WTPN21 PGTW 251700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5N 134.8E TO 15.9N 129.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
251630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N
134.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8N
135.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 134.2E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM NORTH
OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE LLCC AND A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
SEMI-CIRCLE. A 251335Z TRMM IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE DEVELOPING LLCC. A 251207Z ASCAT IMAGE
SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. A SHIP
REPORT AT 25/12Z (200 NM NW OF CENTER) SUPPORTS THE 20 KNOT
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT WITH WINDS 080/19 KNOTS AND SLP NEAR 1006 MB.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL NEAR 23N 137E. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND
SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 12-36
HOURS AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN LUZON. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
261700Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ21 KNES 260313
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)

B. 26/0232Z

C. 14.1N

D. 132.6E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...GT 2/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.O. MET AND PT AGREE. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GUILLOT



luzon threat...

[Typhoon10]

HKO 72hr Prediction

http://www.hko.gov.hk/nhm/nhmsfcpp72e.htm

[ManilaTC]

Appears to me that they got duped by that swirl at 14N 132E... looks like that its a mid level circ and its now going away based on the last few visible pics

The real thing could be at 12N 131E! near that big blob of convection

[euro6208]

euro has this passing north of luzon and south of taiwan so plenty of warm water for this to intensify...

[dexterlabio]

Appears to me that they got duped by that swirl at 14N 132E... looks like that its a mid level circ and its now going away based on the last few visible pics

The real thing could be at 12N 131E! near that big blob of convection

EDITED. I was agreeing with you a while ago coz JMA also had the coordinates at around 12N 132E. JMA's latest position of the TD has it at 13.9N 131.2E.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Looks like a large system hence it could take a while to consolidate, as hinted by latest ECMWF runs.

[ManilaTC]

Appears to me that they got duped by that swirl at 14N 132E... looks like that its a mid level circ and its now going away based on the last few visible pics

The real thing could be at 12N 131E! near that big blob of convection

EDITED. I was agreeing with you a while ago coz JMA also had the coordinates at around 12N 132E. JMA's latest position of the TD has it at 13.9N 131.2E.

Better Learn the Dvorak technique hehehe

[oaba09]

Latest track from pagasa:

[Meow]

Latest track from pagasa:

I wonder why the PAGASA often forecasts that a tropical cyclone will visit Taiwan.

[mrbagyo]

this is confusing, is this the one in 135E yesterday?

[dexterlabio]

i can see the SW periphery of this system is fine and robust. the northern portions of it seems weird to me. i agree this looks to be a large system, its extent stretches from north to south and that could be a burden to it.

[dexterlabio]

this is confusing, is this the one in 135E yesterday?

yes. for some reason the invest near 135E yesterday was assigned as 95W. The other invest nearer Luzon became 94W and now it's gone. would be less confusing now that we had this TD to talk about, especially if this gets named.

[oaba09]

I wonder why the PAGASA often forecasts that a tropical cyclone will visit Taiwan.

Euro is also forecasting a track that passes south of taiwan.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Upgraded, now tropical storm Doksuri, track through Bashi by JMA!

WTPQ20 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1206 DOKSURI (1206) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261200UTC 14.3N 130.6E FAIR
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 271200UTC 16.8N 127.3E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 281200UTC 18.8N 123.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 291200UTC 20.8N 119.1E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[dexterlabio]

it really has a large scope, also indicated by the JMA. HKO also has the same forecast track of this passing through Calayan and Babuyan Islands.