ATL: INVEST 97L

#81 Postby **NDG** » Fri Jun 29, 2012 8:18 pm

With no global model support, not even from NOGAPS, I doubt 97L will be anything else than a strong tropical wave affecting the Windward Islands in a couple of days.

#82 Postby **ozonepete** » Fri Jun 29, 2012 8:59 pm

NDG wrote:With no global model support, not even from NOGAPS, I doubt 97L will be anything else than a strong tropical wave affecting the Windward Islands in a couple of days.

You forgot the disclaimer. A lot of people on here live down there.

FireBird · #83 Postby **FireBird** » Fri Jun 29, 2012 10:00 pm

Yup, we in the Windwards have been put on alert for the possibility of strong thunderstorms on Sunday. While the E Caribbean and Leeward islands may benefit from some rain, we down here really don't need it. We've been waterlogged enough with persistent rain for several months now. Whatever happens, it's really interesting to have something to grab my attention this early...

#84 Postby **abajan** » Fri Jun 29, 2012 10:37 pm

FireBird wrote:Yup, we in the Windwards have been put on alert for the possibility of strong thunderstorms on Sunday. While the E Caribbean and Leeward islands may benefit from some rain, we down here really don't need it. We've been waterlogged enough with persistent rain for several months now. Whatever happens, it's really interesting to have something to grab my attention this early...

I know that TnT (that's Trinidad and Tobago) has had its fair share of rain but Bim (Barbados) could definitely do with some. So, lot's of showers and thunderstorms from 97L sounds good to me

#85 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Jun 29, 2012 11:57 pm

The thing about the tropics is that it never ceases to amaze and surprise me. It's unpredictable nature is something that I will be enamored with for the rest of my life. I wouldn't write anything off, especially a tropical wave. It will continue to flare up and die down over the course of it's life.

Cyclenall · #86 Postby **Cyclenall** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 3:04 am

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Can I have a link to these?

Link: http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current/

Gustywind · #87 Postby **Gustywind** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 4:57 am

2AM EDT TWO

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF DRY AIR. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Gustywind · #88 Postby **Gustywind** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 4:59 am

2AM EDT TWD

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N52W 15N54W 11N55W.
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
46W AND 48W AROUND 29/2045 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED
AND DISSIPATED. REMAINING ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.

colbroe · #89 Postby **colbroe** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 5:06 am

Late last night all the strong precipitation dissipated , however this morning one can see the the system is firing up again . we would have to wait and see how much will it develop before it reaches the islands .

Gustywind · #90 Postby **Gustywind** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 5:10 am

Convection has diminished this morning but semi off topic, look that another strong wave trying to exit the African coast.

Gustywind · #91 Postby **Gustywind** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 5:15 am

Aric Dunn · #92 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 6:01 am

very dtrong mid level circ and some evidencr of a low level. one or two more convective burst and it should work to the durface. watch for som e deep convection to fire near thst mid level cIrc.

#93 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 6:44 am

Down to 10% at 8 AM EDT TWO.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600
MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

canes04 · #94 Postby **canes04** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 7:32 am

Agree Aric, it will refire today. I know some other people think this has no shot including a pro met on here.
I believe 97 still has a pulse! Conditions are not that bad ahead of this system.

#95 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 7:40 am

Never said "no shot" at all, just no shot in 48 hours, which is what the NHC forecasts. I said 0 chance within 48 hrs a day or two ago. Any disturbance has some chance of developing during its lifetime. For this disturbance, that chance may be 2-3%. But chances of development within 48 hours remain near zero. It's on life support. Pulse very weak and fading. Look elsewhere for Ernesto (and not those storms in the Gulf).

#96 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 7:40 am

12z Best Track

AL, 97, 2012063012, , BEST, 0, 120N, 505W, 25, 1013, DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

Gustywind · #97 Postby **Gustywind** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 8:08 am

8AM EDT TWD

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N54W 15N56W 11N56W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
14N TO 16N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

#98 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 10:42 am

Circulation is gone.

#99 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 10:58 am

Yep, cycloneye, I agree. This has degenerated to an open wave.

#100 Postby **BigB0882** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 11:58 am

Now that is what a "poof" looks like. lol

ATL: INVEST 97L

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