ATL: INVEST 97L

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al972012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201206291811
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2012, DB, O, 2012062918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL972012
AL, 97, 2012062818, , BEST, 0, 115N, 419W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2012062900, , BEST, 0, 115N, 432W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2012062906, , BEST, 0, 116N, 445W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2012062912, , BEST, 0, 116N, 458W, 20, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 45, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2012062918, , BEST, 0, 117N, 471W, 20, 1013, DB

Thread that was the topic at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113053&hilit=&start=0

2 PM EDT TWO:

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS TODAY...
ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[wxman57]

Heading toward the eastern Caribbean where shear is currently 30-40 kts. Development chances quite low. Making it an invest doesn't mean the NHC expects it to develop, they're just running models on it.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Took a McIdas shot of it. No evidence of anything but a wave axis. If it was going to develop by noon Sunday then it would be demonstrating some significant low-level rotation:

[Aric Dunn]

CLearly there is plenty of moisture and there is a weak circ on the east side of the convection.

[Blown Away]

When I looked at it an hour ago I said this looks like a 20% and when 2:00 rolled around and it was 20%, I thought man I follow this stuff to closely.

[wxman57]

Was just looking at the European model ensembles on TC development potential. Nothing showing up for this disturbance, meaning the Euro ensemble system isn't forecasting development.

[tolakram]

Latest



Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Closer: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[cycloneye]

First tropical model plots. SHIP up to moderate Tropical Storm.

WHXX01 KWBC 291813
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1813 UTC FRI JUN 29 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972012) 20120629 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120629 1800 120630 0600 120630 1800 120701 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.7N 47.1W 11.8N 49.3W 12.0N 52.1W 12.3N 55.3W
BAMD 11.7N 47.1W 12.0N 49.5W 12.3N 52.1W 12.7N 54.9W
BAMM 11.7N 47.1W 11.8N 49.4W 12.0N 52.1W 12.3N 55.1W
LBAR 11.7N 47.1W 12.0N 49.7W 12.3N 52.8W 12.8N 56.1W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120701 1800 120702 1800 120703 1800 120704 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 58.9W 14.2N 66.5W 16.4N 74.7W 18.4N 82.0W
BAMD 13.3N 57.8W 14.5N 63.2W 15.9N 68.1W 17.8N 72.3W
BAMM 12.8N 58.3W 13.9N 64.8W 15.6N 71.2W 17.7N 77.2W
LBAR 13.1N 59.5W 13.3N 65.6W 14.2N 71.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 46KTS 55KTS 55KTS 52KTS
DSHP 46KTS 55KTS 55KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 47.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 44.5W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 41.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[wxman57]

Here's another McIdas shot I just took. Zoomed out a bit more. The disturbance is just a small cluster of disorganized storms on the northern part of the wave. WV loop indicates it's heading right into a TUTT (eastern Caribbean) where there is plenty of shear. That's why that TPW loop indicates it is now stretching NNW-SSE. I certainly won't be worrying about it developing this weekend. Going to enjoy my first days off after 12 days of 10-15 hours per day.

[cycloneye]

This wave has persisted despite hostile conditions like the sal. If you go to the models thread,it may survive the Eastern Caribbean graveyard negative area.

[TheBurn]

18:00 UTC MEP

[Weatherfreak000]

Increase in convection today is pretty nice. No reason to write off a small system with no model support, occasionally models miss smaller waves like this. 20% looks pretty fair.....NHC are the professionals....if they say 20% it's a good idea to believe them.

[Ptarmigan]

Maybe it could America rain....................

[Aric Dunn]

SSD floater is already up you can clearly see the small circ on the eastern side nothing spectacular but still shows the vorticity is in place..... man with debbie they took forever to make it an invest.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[floridasun78]

i bet islands are watching it their reason why nhc have it as invest so let see how it does

[floridasun78]

SHIP 46KTS 55KTS 55KTS 52KTS
DSHP 46KTS 55KTS 55KTS 52KTS
ship got wind going up in 97l

[Gustywind]

97L, i'm a bit surprised to see already an Invest east of the EC islands

[Gustywind]

Loop
Looks like convection is more concentrated and refiring decently for now...

[Weatherfreak000]

Continues to organize and consolidate, looking good. SHIPS seems to like it as well. Highly impressive to see this in June.

[floridasun78]

Continues to organize and consolidate, looking good. SHIPS seems to like it as well. Highly impressive to see this in June.

SHIP 46KTS 55KTS 55KTS 52KTS
DSHP 46KTS 55KTS 55KTS 52KTS
ship got wind going up in 97l

[KWT]

Decent system, would be a real contender in August/September but as Wxman57 said, conditions very soon become horrid for this system. I'd be amazed if we got anything out of this.