ATL: INVEST 97L

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hello folks!
CV Invest.....first of the year!

[Gustywind]

97L continues to progress westward with a nice sat pic appearence...

[Aric Dunn]

Decent system, would be a real contender in August/September but as Wxman57 said, conditions very soon become horrid for this system. I'd be amazed if we got anything out of this.

actually they dont. its low enough in latitude that it has almost 3 days to do something before the eastern carrib. in the mean time it will benefit from the upper divergence. not saying it will develop just saying ( like the NHC) there is a chance.

[Buck]

Well I'll be. Will someone tell the Atlantic that it's only June 29th?

[KWT]

It probably will be good for some rain mind you, the ECM however loses this system by the time it gets to the E.Caribbean.

[Weatherfreak000]

Decent system, would be a real contender in August/September but as Wxman57 said, conditions very soon become horrid for this system. I'd be amazed if we got anything out of this.

Doesn't look too bad to me, shear appears to be lessening all along its path as the ridge pushes it West if it can make it to about 60W....



See that broad area of convergence? It's little wonder why this thing is firing up so quickly.




Check out that impressive moisture envelope, the atmosphere ahead of the storm appears to be subpar.



20% still looks good to me, IMO.

[KWT]

Decent system, would be a real contender in August/September but as Wxman57 said, conditions very soon become horrid for this system. I'd be amazed if we got anything out of this.

actually they dont. its low enough in latitude that it has almost 3 days to do something before the eastern carrib. in the mean time it will benefit from the upper divergence. not saying it will develop just saying ( like the NHC) there is a chance.

Perhaps very soon isn't the right phrase but the conditions aren't at all good down the line. Even if it does manage to make it, its going to get torn apart in no time at all.

PS, the ECM puts this into the Caribbean by Sunday and therefore it may only have 36hrs or so before it reaches that worse conditions. 20% would be reasonable right now looking at its presentation.

[GCANE]

If it survives East Carib and gets on the SW side of the ULL, outflow will be enhanced.

Amazingly, been hanging tough so far.

All the classic signs of a protected pouch.

IMHO, may get a surprise out of this one.

[ROCK]

If it survives East Carib and gets on the SW side of the ULL, outflow will be enhanced.

Amazingly, been hanging tough so far.

All the classic signs of a protected pouch.

IMHO, may get a surprise out of this one.

Agree, I would like to see more model support though. Now that its an invest the globals will start picking up on it....looks real good and better than it did a few days ago....

[ROCK]

Probably have the 18Z models run on this.IE HWRF, GFDL.. at least I hope so. Maybe the mighty 18Z GFS will have something other than a few sprinkles in the carib......

[cycloneye]

Well,this is semi off-topic news and that is the predict team will start to work on the pouches on early July. I like a lot those studies of the waves.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2012.html

[ROCK]

that latest convection blow up at the east of the storm will aid in lowering pressures over that weak COC....might die down after sunset but any convection over a COC is good for development. Fun times...

[Gustywind]

Firing nicely this afternoon with abig ball of convection.

[KWT]

Agree, I would like to see more model support though. Now that its an invest the globals will start picking up on it....looks real good and better than it did a few days ago....

Yeah the models aren't overkeen on this system at all, whilst not the be all when you've got pretty much none of the models going for development more often than not that is the case. Its got probably 36hrs to spin itself up before it reaches that higher shear zone that is present with the TUTT. We've seen TD's be able to form and then run into the shear zone and be torn apart, I suspect thats the 'best' case for this system.

[cycloneye]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

A BETTER DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 49/50W THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAS LEFT BEHIND A LLVL CLOUD SWIRL THAT HAD BEEN
CARRIED AS A SURFACE LOW ON PREVIOUS SURFACE MAPS. THE WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE AND A BROAD AND
WEAKENING MID LVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THIS WAVE HAS BEGUN TO
INTERACT ALREADY WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING BETWEEN 55W
AND 60W...WITH MOISTURE AND THE MID LVL VORTICITY CENTER BEING
DRAWN MORE NW. THIS WAVE IS DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW IN TRADITIONAL
MODEL FORECAST FIELDS OF RH AND REL VORTICITY...BUT GLOBAL
MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT THIS INTERACTION WILL SLOW DOWN THE
WAVE AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND E CARIBBEAN
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS
IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE UPPER TROUGH TO ITS W IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT NW AND WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE E CARIB. BASED ON GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
THE WAVE SHOULD BE NEAR 54/55W 12Z SAT...59/60W 12Z SUN AND
63W 12Z MON. THE WAVE WILL CARRY AN AREA OF 20 KT WINDS ACROSS
THE N SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS 6-8 FT AS IT TRAVERSES WWD. LOOKING
AHEAD FOR TUE AND WED...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE AREA OF
ENHANCED TRADES WITH THE WAVE WILL MERGE WITH EXISTING TRADES
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT
TRADES OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BY THEN.

[Aric Dunn]

very interesting that the trough will shift nw means it should stay in a relativity conducive environment. but the eastern carrib will likely kill and weak circ unless its well defined.

[Aric Dunn]

72 hours.

[floridasun78]

why make it a invest if their no chance maybe because it close to islands

[ROCK]

why make it a invest if their no chance maybe because it close to islands

well as of today there is a 20% chance... Islands have nothing to do with it....its the Ecarib graveyard and the TUTT that are forthcoming. IMHO, I am with GCane on this one...a July surprise is possible.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

No matter what eventually happens, it is still rather interesting seeing something like this so early in the season.