CPAC: DANIEL - Post-Tropical

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Daniel is holding strong.

EP, 04, 2012070900, , BEST, 0, 152N, 1257W, 90, 970, HU

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, Dainel still at 90 knts. This storm gets more and more amazing.

[ROCK]

he has a great moisture envelope in which to work with....that and its small in size, compact enough to avoid bringing in dry air....looks great.....time to update the theshold for SSTs given that most of these storms this year have defied the current thinking.

[Kingarabian]

Conditions associated with an Annular Hurricanes - Wikipedia

Code: Select all

Some of the conditions associated with annular tropical cyclones are:

    An intensity 85% or greater from their theoretical maximum potential intensity,
    Weak wind shear from the east or southeast,
    A cold east wind at a high altitude (the 200 mbar pressure level),
    Near-constant sea surface temperatures between 25.4 °C and 28.5 °C, and
    Lack of relative eddy flux convergence at the 200 mbar pressure level, relative to the storm.[1]


That pretty much relates to Daniel.

Just look at that eye. If he can only somehow clear it...

[Kingarabian]

Last few frames convection has been on the decrease. Will see how it goes from here.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

HURRICANE DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
0300 UTC MON JUL 09 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 126.3W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 126.3W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 125.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.4N 128.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.6N 131.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.7N 134.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.7N 137.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.9N 143.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 15.7N 149.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 15.5N 155.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 126.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Yellow Evan]

Last few frames convection has been on the decrease. Will see how it goes from here.

Looks like the end at last.

[Zanthe]

Looks like Daniel is finally on the decrease. Frickin' amazing hurricane.

[euro6208]

Hurricane Daniel

Current: 80 knots category 1
Peaked: 110 knots category 3







The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Won't be surprised to see a minimal hurricane when I wake up.

[brunota2003]

EP, 04, 2012070906, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1270W, 80, 977, HU

Down to 80 knots now.

[Kingarabian]

Doing its best to hang in there.

Edit: I don't know what to make up of Daniel anymore. His eye is still 100% visible but the convection around the eye is really weak.

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 090859
TCDEP4

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 AM PDT MON JUL 09 2012

CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN STEADILY WARMING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS
DANIEL MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
CONSENSUS DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T4.0/65 KT AND T5.0/90 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THIS INTENSITY IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MOST RECENT CIRA/NESDIS AMSU INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 82 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A STEADY 275/13 KT. DANIEL IS ON THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE STRONG AND EXTENSIVE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE
MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL TVCE.

DESPITE BEING IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...DANIEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
RELATIVELY COOL SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 24C AND INGESTS
MORE STABLE AIR. DURING THE 48-72 HOUR TIME PERIOD...THE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT...WHICH COULD INDUCE
MORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN EXPECTED...CAUSING DANIEL TO BECOME A
NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOONER THAN INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 15.4N 127.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 15.5N 129.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 15.6N 132.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 15.7N 135.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 15.8N 138.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 15.8N 144.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 15.6N 150.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/0600Z 15.4N 156.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Laplacian]

To S2K Supporter:

Understood. Thanks.

[cycloneye]

Hanging on.

09/1200 UTC 15.3N 128.4W T4.0/5.0 DANIEL -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

Down to 70kts at 12z Best Track.

EP, 04, 2012070912, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1284W, 70, 977, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

There is still an eye visible though, but not too many thunderstorms.

[Yellow Evan]

Won't be surprised to see this lowered to 65 knts at 8.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 AM PDT MON JUL 09 2012

THIS MORNING...DANIEL HAS SHOWN AN EYE INTERMITTENTLY WITHIN A SMALL
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FROM THE GEOSTATIONARY INFRARED IMAGERY. A
0912Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM THE NRL SITE SUGGESTS THAT THE
HURRICANE MAY HAVE DEVELOPED A SECONDARY EYEWALL AT A RADIUS OF
ABOUT 30 NM WITH A REMNANT INNER EYEWALL STILL APPARENT AT A 10 NM
RADIUS. BOTH SAB AND TAFB PROVIDE DVORAK NUMBERS UNCHANGED AT
4.0/5.0...YET THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE SUGGESTS THAT THE
CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED BY ABOUT 10 KT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A
BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES PROVIDES OUR 75 KT INTENSITY ANALYSIS.

DANIEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KT...PRIMARILY THROUGH THE INFLUENCE
OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
POLEWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
TRACK MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TREK OF DANIEL
AND LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

DANIEL SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOR ABOUT THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT
PROGRESSES OVER COOL 24-25C WATERS WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS
VERY LOW. AROUND 48 TO 72 HOURS...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. IT IS LIKELY THAT
THE COMBINATION OF STABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND MORE HOSTILE VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE DANIEL TO LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...IF NOT SOONER. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS MOST SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM
STATISTICAL METHODS AND QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

THE ANALYSIS OF THE INITIAL SIZE OF DANIEL WAS ASSISTED BY A 0530Z
ASCAT PASS AND A 1029Z AMSU CIRA WIND RADII ESTIMATE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 15.3N 129.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 15.4N 131.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 15.5N 134.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 15.6N 137.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 15.7N 140.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 15.6N 146.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1200Z 15.5N 151.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1200Z 15.0N 158.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, they went higher than the BT here for a weakening system,