CPAC: DANIEL - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Old adv that nobody posted:


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 100852
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS DUE WEST...OR 270/14 KT. THERE IS NO
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. DANIEL SHOULD MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SITUATED TO ITS NORTH...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE
VERTICALLY SHALLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCN CONSENSUS
MODEL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...DANIEL SHOULD MOVE ACROSS 140W
LONGITUDE AND PASS INTO THE NOAA CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO.

DANIEL HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND AN EYE HAS EVEN OCCASIONALLY BEEN
EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE
EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME INDISTINCT IN BOTH INFRARED AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KT
BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT
FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB. DANIEL SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AS THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMICAL ENVIRONMENT. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS DUE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DESPITE
MOVING BACK OVER WARMER WATERS BY THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 15.4N 133.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 15.4N 136.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 15.5N 139.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 15.5N 142.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 15.5N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 15.4N 151.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/0600Z 15.2N 157.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF DANIEL CONTINUES TO
SHRINK AND WARM. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 65
KT...AND THE OBJECTIVE SCHEME FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT YIELDS AN
ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 45 KT. BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THESE NUMBERS...
THE WINDS ARE LOWERED TO 55 KT. DANIEL IS MOVING ACROSS A
SOUTHWARD-PROTRUDING TONGUE OF COOLER SSTS OF ROUGHLY 24C...BUT THE
STORM WILL ACTUALLY BE REACHING SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS THE FARTHER
WEST IT MOVES. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THAT SHOULD CURB ANY RE-STRENGTHENING OF
THE CYCLONE. THE NHC FORECAST CLOSELY MIRRORS THE GRADUAL DECAY
SHOWN BY THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. DANIEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH BY DAY 4.

DANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST...OR 270/14 KT...TO THE SOUTH OF A
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...A TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS FAVORED. THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A BIT SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND CLOSE TO THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DANIEL SHOULD CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WITHIN THE
NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 15.3N 135.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 15.3N 137.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 15.3N 140.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 15.3N 143.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 15.2N 146.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1200Z 15.0N 152.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[euro6208]

finally daniel is now a tropical storm lol...

[Kingarabian]

Haha kind of late huh.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track has winds down to 45kts.

EP, 04, 2012071018, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1358W, 45, 1000, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

Down to 45kts.


TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

A RATHER SMALL AMORPHOUS BLOB IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DANIEL. A BLEND OF THE LOWERED CURRENT
INTENSITY AND FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES RESULTS IN
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. DANIEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN
AS IT TRAVERSES COOLER 24-25C SSTS AND ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ACCORDINGLY...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND IS A COMPROMISE OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY
GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL IS FORECAST TO
KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING UNTIL DISSIPATION.
THE NHC FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DANIEL SHOULD CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 15.3N 136.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 15.3N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 15.3N 141.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 15.3N 144.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1800Z 15.3N 147.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/1800Z 15.0N 154.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[hawaiigirl]

What's the chances of Daniel doing an Iniki?

[Kingarabian]

What's the chances of Daniel doing an Iniki?

0%. The reason why he has been able to hold on for so long was the lack of shear. The NHC forecasts the shear to increase over Daniel and that should do it...

Also the Sub-Tropical Ridge over the Hawaiian Islands is expected to stand firm for the next few days and that should keep everything moving west.

But of course Daniel has defied all his forecasts so anything is possible.
__________
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[cycloneye]

We can say bye to Daniel as is barely a storm.

EP, 04, 2012071100, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1376W, 35, 1003, TS

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, that was fast.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS THIS EVENING. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 35 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE
AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS. DANIEL IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION VERY SOON AND BECOME A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AS IT ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND REMAINS OVER
SSTS OF 24-25 DEGREES CELSIUS.

DANIEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION
IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE UPDATED TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE EVENLOPE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DANIEL SHOULD CROSS INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 15.4N 138.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 15.5N 140.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 15.5N 143.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1200Z 15.5N 146.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0000Z 15.5N 149.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0000Z 15.0N 156.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[euro6208]

euro has daniel lingering as it passes south of hawaii and as a matter of fact, strengthens daniel slightly southwest of hawaii...

[cycloneye]

First advisory made by the CPAC folks.

TROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP042012
500 AM HST WED JUL 11 2012

DANIEL CONTINUES ITS STEADY MOTION TOWARD THE WEST...WITH THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 270/14 KT...AND THE CENTER CROSSED
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AROUND MIDNIGHT HST. THE SATELLITE
APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE SHOWS A DEGRADED SYSTEM...WITH INFRARED
AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CENTER...WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS HELD AT 35
KT...BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5 FROM
PHFO...AND DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS CHANGED
LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS LIE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GREATLY COUNTERACT ANY
POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION THAT THE HIGHER SST MAY PROVIDE. THE
INCREASED NORTH AND NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...SUPPLIED BY A RIDGE ALOFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND A TROUGH ALOFT TO THE SOUTHEAST MOVING IN
TANDEM WITH DANIEL...WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED STEADY WEAKENING...AND
EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF THE CYCLONE. DANIEL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND A SHALLOW POST-
TROPICAL REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS...WITH THE TIMING DEPENDING ON
WHETHER THE CYCLONE CAN MAINTAIN ANY SEMBLANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
AND LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOW DISSIPATION IN 36-72 HOURS.

AS DANIEL WEAKENS...THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM WILL BE A
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH FAR TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL PROPEL
DANIEL ON A TRACK TOWARD THE WEST...OR WEST-SOUTHWEST...AND WELL
SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK
OFFERS LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS...AND LIES NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 15.4N 141.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 15.4N 143.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 15.4N 146.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/0000Z 15.4N 149.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/1200Z 15.2N 152.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[Chickenzilla]

Daniel looks like a mere low-level swirl on the visible imagery.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track down to TD

Bye Daniel.

EP, 04, 2012071118, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1415W, 30, 1006, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

Daniel looks like a mere low-level swirl on the visible imagery.
http://img507.imageshack.us/img507/2659/danielsat9.jpg

Still a tad of thunderstorm activity towards the SE side.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression DANIEL Advisory Number 31
Issued at 1100 AM HST WED JUL 11 2012
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location: 15.4N 142.2W
ABOUT 900 MI ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1105 MI ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 35 MPH...55 KM/H
Present movement: W or 270 degrees AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP042012
1100 AM HST WED JUL 11 2012

DANIEL CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
SYSTEM REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SITUATED TO ITS NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

DANIEL HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THUS IT
HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 30 KT AND THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA
IN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE. ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS LIE ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK...INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
COUNTERACT ANY POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING INTO A POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS MOST
INTENSITY GUIDANCE WITH SLOW DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 15.4N 142.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 15.3N 144.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 15.2N 147.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/0600Z 14.8N 151.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/1800Z 14.5N 154.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory Written

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP042012
500 PM HST WED JUL 11 2012

VISIBLE IMAGES HAVE SHOWN A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ALL
DAY WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW DRY
SUBSIDENT AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ABOVE DANIEL. SINCE
DANIEL IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...ITS MOTION IS PRIMARILY GUIDED BY THE
LARGE-SCALE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.

DANIEL IS OVER AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER ANOMALOUSLY COOL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 24C AND 25.5C. FURTHERMORE...VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG ITS FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...REINTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED AND DANIEL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT OF DANIEL AND ITS REMNANT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIGHTLY PACKED GROUPING OF DYNAMICAL OBJECTIVE AIDS.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON DANIEL FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 15.5N 143.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 15.5N 145.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 13/0000Z 15.2N 149.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 13/1200Z 14.8N 152.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

[Yellow Evan]

Goodbye Daniel. That was fun.

[Kingarabian]

Goodbye Daniel that was one heck of a ride.