EPAC: EMILIA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Anyone here think this has a shot to make it to the CPHC AOR?

If it manages to blow up some more, become annular, then I think it may.

[brunota2003]

EP, 05, 2012071006, , BEST, 0, 134N, 1125W, 115, 948, HU

[Kingarabian]

...EMILIA STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 100848
TCDEP5

HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

EMILIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY WITH A
WELL-DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF A NEARLY CIRCULAR MASS
OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KT IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T6.0/115 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN ADT SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T6.2/120 KT...WHICH HAS BEEN STEADY SINCE 0500 UTC.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 290/10 KT. THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON EMILIA CONTINUING TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY DAY 4...HOWEVER...THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AS IT INTERACTS MORE WITH
THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCN CONSENSUS MODEL.

NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERING LESS FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS. COLD UPWELLING...WHICH IS A
VERY DISTINCT POSSIBILITY GIVEN THAT UPPER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
VALUES ARE ONLY ABOUT 12 UNITS OR LESS...COULD INDUCE MORE RAPID
WEAKENING THAN INDICATED AFTER 36 HOURS HOURS WHEN HEAT CONTENT
VALUES BENEATH THE HURRICANE ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO ZERO. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM
INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 13.5N 113.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 14.0N 114.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 14.6N 116.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 15.1N 118.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 15.5N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 16.3N 123.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 17.1N 128.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 17.7N 134.2W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Kingarabian]

Aforementioned probably EWRC taking place, and may be becoming smaller. Lets see what she does from here.

-Good night!

[cycloneye]

The eye has turned into a very small one.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track at 115kts.

EP, 05, 2012071012, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1133W, 115, 950, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

Daw it looked Emilia peaked.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE CENTRAL FEATURES BECAME A LITTLE
RAGGED-LOOKING ON ENHANCED IR IMAGERY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS DERIVED
FROM SUBJECTIVE CLASSIFICATIONS BY TAFB AND SAB HAVE DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY
TO 115 KT. EMILIA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW BEING
IMPEDED SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE. THE
SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS REGIME WILL MORE OR LESS CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE RELAXING
SOMEWHAT IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THE
MAINTENANCE OF A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
WEAKENING...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS CALLED FOR BY THE SHIPS/LGEM AND
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 285/9.
GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THAT A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF EMILIA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS A CONTINUED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANGES IN FORWARD SPEED. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TURN...AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
TYPICALLY TOP-PERFORMING ECMWF MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 13.7N 113.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 14.1N 115.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 14.6N 117.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 15.1N 118.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 15.6N 120.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 16.5N 124.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 17.5N 129.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 18.0N 134.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Yellow Evan]

Watch Emilia come crashing down tonight.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

If Emilia is anything like Daniel, I'll probably regret saying this, but..

Emilia peaked this morning.



Note: In the Active Storms image, it shows Emilia as a Category 3 when it is a Category 4.

[euro6208]

so hurricane emilia peaked at 120 knots category 4, that is impressive...now the strongest in this basin for 2012...

[cycloneye]

Down to 110kts at 18z Best Track.

EP, 05, 2012071018, , BEST, 0, 138N, 1141W, 110, 953, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Cyclenall]

THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
TYPICALLY TOP-PERFORMING ECMWF MODEL.

The NHC agrees that the Euro is King.

Watch Emilia come crashing down tonight.

Along with all the Epac enthusiasm on here.

Emilia managed to become the strongest hurricane of the Epac season and in the Western Hemisphere so far in 2012. This is about all it accomplished and I had high hopes for this one to finally undergo official explosive intensification. It failed and blew it. Instead it performed the run-of-the-mill RI that is typical and quick/very quick strengthening the rest of the time. Yesterday morning for a while I thought it would finally do it and bomb to insane heights like a 50 knot increase in 6 hours operationally. I don't know how long its been since official EI has occurred but this was a disappointing one. Maybe this will occur in the Caribbean later on.

[Kingarabian]

I don't think shes done yet. She has that buzz saw look to her now.




Can she become like this

[cycloneye]

Down to 110kts

HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

INNER CORE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE AND
BECOME A LITTLE MORE RAGGED-LOOKING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. USING
A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES YIELDS A
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 110 KT. EMILIA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND IMPEDED OUTFLOW
TO THE EAST...AS MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX WITHIN A COUPLE
OF DAYS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE TRAVERSING PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS BY 24-36 HOURS FROM NOW. SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING
IS LIKELY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE NHC INTENSITY
PREDICTION IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST SHOWS A MUCH FASTER RATE
OF WEAKENING THEN SHOWN HERE.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED A BIT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 285/8. THERE ARE NO REASONS TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST. A PRONOUNCED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ALONG ABOUT 30N LATITUDE SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO CONTINUE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT
TO THE NORTH OF EMILIA...AND THIS WOULD RESULT IN A WESTWARD TURN
AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF
PREDICTION.

THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED INWARD BASED ON A
1744 UTC ASCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 13.9N 114.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 14.3N 115.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 14.8N 117.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 15.3N 119.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 15.7N 121.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 16.8N 125.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 17.5N 130.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 18.0N 135.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Kingarabian]

Deep convection is now surrounding its eye lets see if she can take advantage.... though a bit ragged.

[cycloneye]

EWRC going on.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track goes below Cat 3.

EP, 05, 2012071100, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1151W, 95, 967, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Kingarabian]

EWRC going on.

[img][/img]

Interested to see how she will look after completion.

[Yellow Evan]

EWRC going on.

[img][/img]

Interested to see how she will look after completion.

She may not finish.