EPAC: EMILIA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

EMILIA CONSISTS OF A VERY TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A PATCH OF
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED
TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON A DECREASE OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS. SINCE MOST OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER
COOL WATERS...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND EMILIA COULD
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY OR EVEN EARLIER. SOME INTERMITTENT
BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP BEFORE DISSIPATION.

BECAUSE EMILIA HAS BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE CYCLONE
WILL MOST LIKELY MOVE WESTWARD AT 12 TO 14 KNOTS...STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 15.5N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 15.6N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 15.8N 132.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 15.8N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/1800Z 15.8N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1800Z 15.5N 144.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1800Z 15.0N 150.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1800Z 15.0N 155.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track remains at 45kts

Still hanging there.

EP, 05, 2012071400, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1279W, 45, 998, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

THE WEAKENING TREND OF EMILIA HAS TEMPORARILY HALTED THIS EVENING.
THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING A SMALL TONGUE OF SLIGHTLY
WARMER WATER....25 TO 25.5 DEGREES CELSIUS. THIS HAS CAUSED A
BIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IN SEVERAL BANDS THAT ARE
WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS
45 KT...AND IS BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND RECENT SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK SATELLITE CI NUMBERS OF 3.0. WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME
SATURDAY MORNING AS EMILIA PASSES WEST OF THE AXIS OF THE
WARMER WATER AND INTO A STABLE AND DRIER AIRMASS. THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

EMILIA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD IN LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE NHC
FORECAST IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
IS NEAR THE SPEED OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 15.5N 128.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 15.5N 130.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 15.6N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 15.6N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0000Z 15.6N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z 15.3N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/0000Z 15.0N 151.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0000Z 15.0N 157.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Fyzn94]

I can tell this thing wants to go out with a great presentation on satellite.

[cycloneye]

Still hanging on.

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012

CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR
THE CENTER OF EMILIA. HOWEVER...ASCAT DATA FROM SHORTLY BEFORE
0600 UTC SUGGESTED THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE STILL ABOUT 45 KT...SO
THIS VALUE WILL STAY AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED. A GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME LATER TODAY AS EMILIA MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT
36 HOURS...AND GIVEN THE RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS...THIS TRANSITION
COULD OCCUR SOONER.

EMILIA CONTINUES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE TO
THE WEST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THAT SPEED DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT IS STEERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.
THE NEW FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...
STAYING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 15.5N 130.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 15.5N 132.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 15.6N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 15.6N 137.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0600Z 15.5N 140.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0600Z 15.5N 147.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/0600Z 15.0N 153.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0600Z 15.0N 158.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012

CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED RECENTLY AS EMILIA MOVED OVER A TONGUE OF
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. EMILIA HAS NOT WEAKENED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TODAY WHILE EMILIA IS STILL INFLUENCED BY THE WARMER
WATERS. THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE BACK OVER COOL WATERS ON SUNDAY...
AND THE EXPECTED WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

EMILIA IS A SHALLOW CYCLONE WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROPICAL TRADE
WINDS. THEREFORE...A GENERAL TRACK TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 12 TO 14
KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 15.5N 131.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 15.5N 133.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 15.5N 136.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 15.5N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1200Z 15.5N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1200Z 15.5N 147.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1200Z 15.5N 153.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z 15.5N 159.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Chickenzilla]

Yep, the weakening of Emilia has stopped. but not for long.
A visible satellite image

[Yellow Evan]

Wonder if it will make it into CPHC's AOR.

[cycloneye]

For the record. Still hanging there.


TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012

THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE BEGINNING
TO BECOME DETACHED...AND MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW LOCATED
IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE VERY
TIGHT AND WINDS ARE PROBABLY STILL NEAR 45 KNOTS. IN FACT...THAT
INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. THE CYCLONE IS
SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR...AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGES...AND IS
MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR WEAKENING AND EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVEL TROPICAL TRADE WINDS. THEREFORE...A GENERAL TRACK
TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 12 TO 14 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 15.5N 132.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 15.5N 135.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 15.5N 137.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 15.5N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1800Z 15.2N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1800Z 15.0N 148.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1800Z 15.0N 153.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track down to 40kts.

EP, 05, 2012071500, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1337W, 40, 1000, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

Down to 35kts.

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF EMILIA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN ASCAT PASS
AROUND 1800Z SUGGESTED THAT PEAK WINDS AT THAT TIME WERE AROUND 40
KT. GIVEN THE DECAY OF THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THE ASCAT PASS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND
OF THE LATEST TAFB AND SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS EMILIA WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 12 HOURS AND
BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
SSTS AROUND 24C AND THROUGH A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD AT 14 KT...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT NEXT FEW DAYS AS EMILIA IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 15.7N 134.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 15.7N 136.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 15.6N 139.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1200Z 15.5N 142.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0000Z 15.3N 145.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0000Z 15.0N 150.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z 15.0N 156.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012

VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE AND IS PRIMARILY OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT
OF THE CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT BASED
ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWED A FEW 30-35 KT VECTORS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AS EMILIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH A
STABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO
SPIN DOWN TO A DEPRESSION AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMANANT LOW
IN 24 HOURS...OR SOONER.

EMILIA CONTINUES WESTWARD AT AROUND 14 KT. A WESTWARD TO SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF DUE WESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ROUGHLY IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 15.7N 136.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 15.5N 138.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 15.3N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1800Z 15.1N 143.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0600Z 15.0N 146.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0600Z 15.0N 152.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0600Z 15.0N 158.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

Last Advisory Written

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012

ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS LINGER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...THIS
ACTIVITY IS NOT CONSIDERED SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO MAINTAIN
EMILIA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...THE CYCLONE HAS LACKED
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS. EMILIA IS
THEREFORE CLASSIFIED AS A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW WITH AN
INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 30 KT.

THE REMNANT LOW OF EMILIA HAS GAINED SOME FORWARD SPEED...AND THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/16. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS AS THE WEAKENING
SYSTEM REMAINS IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATING IN 4 TO 5 DAYS...BUT THIS COULD
OCCUR SOONER AS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
EMILIA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 15.6N 138.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 16/0000Z 15.5N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/1200Z 15.4N 143.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0000Z 15.3N 146.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1200Z 15.2N 149.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1200Z 15.0N 155.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z 15.0N 161.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Yellow Evan]

Goodbye Emilia. See ya in 2016.

[Kingarabian]

Bye bye Emilia!!