EPAC: EMILIA - Post-Tropical

[Macrocane]

I agree with those who said it is stronger than 100 kt. It looks very symmetric, with a cloud free eye, impressive outflow and cold cloud tops.

[Kingarabian]

I agree with those who said it is stronger than 100 kt. It looks very symmetric, with a cloud free eye, impressive outflow and cold cloud tops.

Yep. Only place its struggling from is the East because of shear and the shear is expected to relax tomorrow. So will see how she holds up.

[Kingarabian]

Down to Cat .2

HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 AM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF EMILIA IS 280/11 KT. THE PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED TURN TOWARD THE WEST HAS FINALLY OCCURRED AND EMILIA
REMAINS ON TRACK. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
ON EMILIA MAINTAINING THIS SAME GENERAL MOTION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY
PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF EMILIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT WARMING OF THE INNER CORE
CLOUD TOPS. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATED EMILIA WAS AN
ANNULAR HURRICANE AND THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO POSSESS A
WELL-DEFINED 20 NMI DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KT IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB. EMILIA IS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF OF A NARROW
SEA-SURFACE THERMAL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THE CURRENT
WEAKENING PROCESS. HOWEVER...THE WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN USUAL FOR A HURRICANE THAT WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C
WATERS DUE TO THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. BY 72 HOURS...EMILIA WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-23C
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THOSE COOLER WATERS...IN COMBINATION
WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE
TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS
AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 15.2N 120.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 15.5N 121.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 15.9N 124.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 16.3N 126.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 16.6N 129.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 17.1N 134.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 17.5N 139.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/0600Z 17.5N 144.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[tolakram]

i understand why admin took down my earlier posts (i didnt know to place the disclaimer, etc) but i find it ironic given the recent strengthening of this system.

There is very high wind shear over and to the east of Hawaii. No storm can survive in that kind of shear.


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Shear plus cooler waters make it rather unlikely that a storm of significant intensity will reach the islands.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/cpac/flash-ir4.html

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track is again up to Cat 3

EP, 05, 2012071212, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1209W, 100, 960, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

It keeps on going back and forth. Emilia is a fighter.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 AM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

EMILIA HAS CONTINUED TO FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE WINDS ARE
AGAIN 100 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE HAS A DISTINCT WARM EYE SURROUNDED
BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND NO BANDING FEATURES. THIS
ANNULAR PATTERN NORMALLY WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY
IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...COOL WATERS ARE NEARBY...AND EMILIA
SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE NORTH HAS EXPANDED AND HAS FORCED EMILIA
TO MOVE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...270 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST OR
EVEN STRENGTHEN A LITTLE. THIS PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD AND IS NOW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 15.1N 121.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 15.3N 123.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 15.5N 125.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 16.0N 128.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 16.0N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 16.0N 136.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 16.0N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1200Z 16.0N 146.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track down to 90kts

EP, 05, 2012071218, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1219W, 90, 965, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

Watch it go back to Cat 3 tonight.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

THE COOL WATERS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO AFFECT EMILIA. THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...AND THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT...
RESULTING IN LOWER DVORAK T-NUMBERS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 90 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ATTEMPTS FOR THE
CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP INTERMITTENTLY...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR
THE HURRICANE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EMILIA COULD BECOME
A REMNANT LOW IN FOUR DAYS OR EARLIER.

EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH...WHICH IS FORCING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD...IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED NORTH OF EMILIA. THIS PATTERN WOULD
FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH NO IMPORTANT
CHANGES IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...EMILIA WILL LIKELY BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY
THE TRADE WINDS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 15.1N 122.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 15.1N 124.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 15.4N 126.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 15.6N 128.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 15.9N 131.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 16.0N 136.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 16.0N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1800Z 16.0N 145.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Fyzn94]

Watch it go back to Cat 3 tonight.

I don't think she'll be so lucky this time.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track down to 80kts

EP, 05, 2012071300, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1230W, 80, 976, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like I was wrong earlier.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

EMILIA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING...WITH THE EYE FILLING
IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHORTLY BEFORE 0000
UTC. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT ONLY THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION
OF THE EYEWALL REMAINS INTACT AND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR
THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 75 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE
LATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS AND
SUPPORTED BY A RECENT CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 73 KT. THE
HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 24-25 DEGREES
CELSIUS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING FOR THE FIRST 48
HOURS THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT. EMILIA
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE HEADING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS TO ITS NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE
WAS REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND THE NEW TRACK IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GFS...ECWMF...AND THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 15.4N 123.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 15.5N 125.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 15.8N 127.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 16.0N 130.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 16.2N 132.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 16.4N 137.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 16.3N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0000Z 16.3N 146.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

EMILIA CONTINUES ITS RAPID DEMISE WITH MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. A BLEND
OF THE T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
60 KT. PERHAPS SOME OF THE WEAKENING IS DUE TO EMILIA MOVING JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF DANIEL. IN ANY CASE... A FURTHER
DECREASE IN WIND SPEED IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER
SSTS OF 24-25C AND FARTHER INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS.
THE NEW FORECAST BLENDS THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS WEAKEN
THIS STORM FASTER THAN FORECAST BELOW.

EMILIA HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED A LITTLE...NOW 275/12. WITH A
STOUT RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...A
WESTWARD TRACK AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE THE FORWARD SPEED BASED UPON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE. THE NEW FORECAST IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...BUT STILL LAGS A FAIR DISTANCE BEHIND THE ECMWF TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 15.4N 124.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 15.6N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 15.8N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 16.0N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 16.2N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 16.3N 140.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0600Z 16.3N 145.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0600Z 16.3N 150.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

MOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EMILIA IS GONE...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A SMALL CELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...I WILL NOT
BE SURPRISED IF ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOP INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SINCE EMILIA WAS A
STRONG HURRICANE...IT IS ASSUMED THAT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
WINDS TO SPIN DOWN...AND THE INTENSITY IS STILL ESTIMATED TO BE 55
KNOTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED...AND EMILIA IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...OR EARLIER.

EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS STEERED
BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES IN TRACK OR FORWARD
SPEED ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A WEAKENING CYCLONE OR A
REMNANT LOW PROGRESSING WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 15.6N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 15.7N 127.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 16.0N 130.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 16.2N 133.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 16.3N 136.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1200Z 16.5N 141.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1200Z 16.5N 147.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1200Z 16.5N 152.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Yellow Evan]

Emilia going bye bye quickly

[Kingarabian]

Didn't put up to much of a fight at all.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

18z Best Track down to 45kts.

EP, 05, 2012071318, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1267W, 45, 996, TS

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_ep052012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

Yea, not much left of this system.