EPAC: FABIO - Post-Tropical

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Kingarabian
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EPAC: FABIO - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 10, 2012 4:05 am

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BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep982012.invest
FSTDA
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040
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201207100548
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    INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 98, 2012, DB, O, 2012071006, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP982012
EP, 98, 2012070906,   , BEST,   0,  95N,  968W,  20, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
EP, 98, 2012070912,   , BEST,   0,  98N,  975W,  20, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
EP, 98, 2012070918,   , BEST,   0, 100N,  982W,  20, 1008, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
EP, 98, 2012071000,   , BEST,   0, 103N,  988W,  20, 1008, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
EP, 98, 2012071006,   , BEST,   0, 105N,  995W,  20, 1007, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  200,  80,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,


Image


SHIPS peaks future Fabio @ 55kts in 72 hours.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2012 6:37 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...AND ON MAJOR HURRICANE EMILIA...LOCATED ABOUT 680 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MEXICO.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:53 am

12z Best Track.

EP, 98, 2012071012, , BEST, 0, 108N, 999W, 20, 1007, DB
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2012 12:56 pm

Up to 50%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...AND ON HURRICANE EMILIA...LOCATED ABOUT 685 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MEXICO.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#5 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 10, 2012 6:37 pm

Up to 60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...AND ON HURRICANE EMILIA...LOCATED ABOUT 690 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MEXICO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE
NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
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#6 Postby Cyclenall » Tue Jul 10, 2012 9:50 pm

They keep increasing the chances by 10% each time even though the Invest isn't becoming any better organized. Unusual but its happened before; they must have confidence this will become a TC.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#7 Postby ROCK » Wed Jul 11, 2012 12:24 am

I am just amazed how that monsoon trof over SA keeps spitting out TCs.....
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#8 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jul 11, 2012 3:56 am

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#9 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jul 11, 2012 10:26 am

models have this only as a weak tropical storm fabio before dissipating...
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 11, 2012 12:33 pm

ROCK wrote:I am just amazed how that monsoon trof over SA keeps spitting out TCs.....


It should calm down for a week or so after Fabio dies.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#11 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 11, 2012 12:34 pm

euro6208 wrote:models have this only as a weak tropical storm fabio before dissipating...


Watch it pull a Daniel.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#12 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 11, 2012 12:36 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 11 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EMILIA...LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
425 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#13 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Jul 11, 2012 12:44 pm

98E may attain strong tropical storm status, but hurricane intensity is unlikely. Thankfully the system should be on a weakening trend by the time it approaches land.

Image
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Re:

#14 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 11, 2012 1:12 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:98E may attain strong tropical storm status, but hurricane intensity is unlikely. Thankfully the system should be on a weakening trend by the time it approaches land.

Image


Land? It's July :P
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Re: Re:

#15 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Jul 11, 2012 2:10 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:98E may attain strong tropical storm status, but hurricane intensity is unlikely. Thankfully the system should be on a weakening trend by the time it approaches land.

Image


Land? It's July :P

Your point is invalid. It doesn't matter what month it is, only what the steering pattern is. The current one favors a west-northwest motion, followed by a brief turn towards the west, and then a movement towards the north and northeast around/after 120 hours.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#16 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Jul 11, 2012 3:55 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
ROCK wrote:I am just amazed how that monsoon trof over SA keeps spitting out TCs.....


It should calm down for a week or so after Fabio dies.

So I guess you are tossing out the GFS? I can't tell if you meant the monsoonal trough or tropical cyclones in the Epac in general.

Yellow Evan wrote:
euro6208 wrote:models have this only as a weak tropical storm fabio before dissipating...


Watch it pull a Daniel.

I think this can pull a magic trick or two, might become yet another major and there are mixed signals with the models. The NHC OFCI on the models page shows it going to 70 knots so does this mean the NHC thinks it becomes a cane? I think it will at least. I think the upper environment will be a big factor (as usual) and not so much the SST's and stable airmass. The SHIPS RI Index almost shows a 1 in 3 chance of 25 knots in 24 hours :wink: .

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:98E may attain strong tropical storm status, but hurricane intensity is unlikely. Thankfully the system should be on a weakening trend by the time it approaches land.

Not confident on that.

Image

Looks great, should become a TD anytime now.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#17 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Wed Jul 11, 2012 4:05 pm

Dvorak T-numbers aren't quite there yet.

11/1745 UTC 12.6N 103.3W T1.0/1.0 98E -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#18 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 11, 2012 4:11 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Dvorak T-numbers aren't quite there yet.

11/1745 UTC 12.6N 103.3W T1.0/1.0 98E -- East Pacific


Those were made before 2 PM EDT. After that time 98E has been organizing more.

Image

Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 11, 2012 4:11 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
ROCK wrote:I am just amazed how that monsoon trof over SA keeps spitting out TCs.....


It should calm down for a week or so after Fabio dies.

So I guess you are tossing out the GFS? I can't tell if you meant the monsoonal trough or tropical cyclones in the Epac in general.


As of last check, the GFS backed off an major surge of TC activity slightly. They do show a few storms days 12-16 though.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jul 11, 2012 4:44 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
It should calm down for a week or so after Fabio dies.

So I guess you are tossing out the GFS? I can't tell if you meant the monsoonal trough or tropical cyclones in the Epac in general.


As of last check, the GFS backed off an major surge of TC activity slightly. They do show a few storms days 12-16 though.


They show 98E becoming Fabio, and around the 22nd they show Gilma, Hector a few days later, and another AOI just around the corner.
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