EPAC: FABIO - Post-Tropical

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Huge eye on microwave imagery.

Rather disorganized core structure.

[Yellow Evan]

Somewhat surprised to see that this is not a hurricane yet.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Code: Select all

UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.3               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  13 JUL 2012    Time :   153000 UTC
      Lat :   15:02:04 N     Lon :  110:39:59 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                4.5 / 978.7mb/ 77.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                4.5     4.5     5.8

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

 Center Temp : -20.7C    Cloud Region Temp : -68.3C

 Scene Type : EYE 

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC   

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON   
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :   80km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1010mb

 Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.0 degrees

****************************************************

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Should be a hurricane at the next advisory.

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CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (yyyymmddhh): 2012071311
SATCON (2mem): MSLP = 980 hPa MSW = 72 kt
ADT: 984 hPa 72 kt Scene: UNFRM
CIMSS AMSU: 980 hPa 72 kt Bias Corr: 0 (MW)
CIRA AMSU: NA hPa NA kt Tmax: NA


Code: Select all

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL STORM FABIO
Friday 13jul12 Time: 1142 UTC
Latitude: 15.02 Longitude: -110.29
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 28 [130]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 980 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 72 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Fair ( /- 10mb /- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------

[Kingarabian]

Should be a hurricane at the next advisory.

[img]Image[/img]

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CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (yyyymmddhh): 2012071311
SATCON (2mem): MSLP = 980 hPa MSW = 72 kt
ADT: 984 hPa 72 kt Scene: UNFRM
CIMSS AMSU: 980 hPa 72 kt Bias Corr: 0 (MW)
CIRA AMSU: NA hPa NA kt Tmax: NA


Code: Select all

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
TROPICAL STORM FABIO
Friday 13jul12 Time: 1142 UTC
Latitude: 15.02 Longitude: -110.29
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 28 [130]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 980 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 72 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Fair ( /- 10mb /- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Spot on. Eye is trying to clear out.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Strangely enough, SAB says no hurricane.

13/1800 UTC 15.4N 111.0W T3.5/3.5 FABIO -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 70kts

EP, 06, 2012071318, , BEST, 0, 154N, 1110W, 70, 986, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

Yay, Fabio is a hurricane.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

HURRICANE FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
2100 UTC FRI JUL 13 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 111.4W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 111.4W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 111.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.1N 112.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.5N 114.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.8N 115.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.3N 117.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.0N 119.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 21.5N 120.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 24.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 111.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF FABIO IS
DISPLACED ABOUT 20 N MI TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...SUGGESTING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE
CYCLONE. IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR...FABIO HAS STILL BEEN ABLE TO GAIN
STRENGTH. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KT...AND
THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS AROUND 75 KT. IN ADDITION...AMSU DATA FROM
EARLIER TODAY YIELDED AN ESTIMATE OF 72 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS RAISED TO 70 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA.

VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING FABIO FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 2 DAYS. SINCE THE SHEAR DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE BEEN TOO
MUCH OF A LIMITING FACTOR THUS FAR AND FABIO WILL STILL BE OVER
SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS STILL ONLY 2
PERCENT...SO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. FABIO
SHOULD MOVE OVER SUB-26C WATERS BY 36 HOURS...AND GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPDATED
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AND ONLY ENDS UP BEING A BIT HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FABIO IS MAINTAINING A MOTION OF 300/9 KT. THE HURRICANE SHOULD
CONTINUE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO
UNTIL THE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST DEEPENS ENOUGH TO SEVER
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG 28N. AT THAT POINT...FABIO
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD BY DAY 5.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FABIO HAS BECOME A MORE SYMMETRIC CYCLONE...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1642 UTC ASCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 15.6N 111.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 16.1N 112.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 16.5N 114.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 16.8N 115.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 17.3N 117.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 19.0N 119.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 21.5N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 24.0N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Kingarabian]

One month ahead of schedule eh.

[Yellow Evan]

One month ahead of schedule eh.

Yeah, the NHC is correct here actually.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to 75kts

EP, 06, 2012071400, , BEST, 0, 156N, 1119W, 75, 982, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

Up to 80kts

The peak intensity is raised to 95kts.

HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012

INFRARED BD-CURVE ENHANCEMENT AND A 2220 UTC AMSU MICROWAVE PASS
SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH
OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS TEMPERATURES IN THE EYEWALL OF -80 TO -90C.
JUST RECENTLY...AN OFF-WHITE RAGGED EYE HAS APPEARED IN THE
INFRARED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT...SINCE
THE 75 KT ESTIMATE EARLIER SUPPORTED BY THE TAFB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
AND UW-CIMSS ADT DID NOT INCLUDE THE RECENT APPEARANCE OF THE
RAGGED EYE. FABIO IS APPARENTLY FENDING-OFF THE NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR THIS EVENING BASED ON THE MUCH IMPROVED CLOUD PATTERN. THE
SHIPS RI INDEX INDICATES THAT THE PROBABILITY FABIO WILL UNDERGO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS INCREASED FROM 2 TO 17 PERCENT. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CONSIDERS THIS POSSIBILITY AND SHOWS AN INCREASE
TO 95 KT IN 12 HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FABIO PEAKING SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
DECREASING SSTS AND STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. FABIO IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/9 KT. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS
FORECAST TO STEER FABIO IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WEST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...CAUSING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND
ALLOWING FABIO TO ULTIMATELY TURN NORTHWARD AROUND DAY 4. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF...THE TVCE
CONSENSUS MODEL...AND CLOSE TO THE GFS-HYBRID.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 15.7N 112.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 16.1N 113.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 16.4N 115.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 16.8N 117.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 17.4N 118.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 19.5N 120.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 21.8N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 23.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[Cyclenall]

One month ahead of schedule eh.

I didn't know your Canadian!

Yeah, the NHC is correct here actually.

I haven't seen the NHC ever get one of those tidbits wrong so of course!

Now that Fabio has fulfilled his duty, it can become a nice donut.

EDIT: The NHC is becoming very aggressive with the intensity of Fabio, now I think they're aiming too high which I almost never state! I see them mentioning the SHIPS RI Index more and more and just that small increase influenced them to rise the intensity forecast. 95 knots is only 5 knots away from yet another major cane, I'm skeptical but I did predict Fabio having a shot so hopefully major status can be eeked out here .

[Zanthe]

Damn Fabio. Foretasted to become just shy of a major hurricane now, originally foretasted to become a minor hurricane.

[cycloneye]

NHC lowers peak intensity.

HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE WITH FABIO DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER...THE EARLIER EYE ATTEMPT ON CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY WAS
UNSUCCESSFUL. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM
EARLIER...SO 80 KT REMAINS THE CURRENT WIND SPEED. FABIO HAS ONLY
A SHORT WINDOW LEFT TO STRENGTHEN WITH COOLER WATERS ON THE HORIZON
FOR TOMORROW. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE HURRICANE IS NEAR
ITS PEAK INTENSITY...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE IN THE NEAR-TERM. A COMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS AND
A STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING OF FABIO BY
MONDAY. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT FOUR DAYS DUE TO COLD WATERS AROUND 20C.

A TIMELY TRMM IMAGE FROM 0615 UTC WAS A GREAT HELP WITH THE INITIAL
POSITIONING...RESULTING IN A MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/9. THIS
GENERAL COURSE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE
CYCLONE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BREAK AFTER THAT TIME DUE TO A DEEP
TROUGH FORMING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...CAUSING FABIO TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN THE LONG-RANGE. THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE NEW NHC
FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...NUDGED A BIT
TO THE EAST AFTER DAY 3 BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
ECMWF MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 16.0N 113.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 16.2N 114.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 16.6N 116.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 17.1N 117.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 17.7N 119.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 19.6N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 22.0N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012

FABIO IS DISPLAYING A RAGGED EYE IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND RECENT
AMSU DATA INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO HAVE A CLOSED
EYEWALL. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KT BASED
ON DVORAK NUMBERS AND ESTIMATES OF 76 AND 80 KT FROM THE AMSU DATA.
THE IMPACTS OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ON FABIO SHOULD LESSEN AFTER
ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT BY THAT TIME...THE HURRICANE WILL BE LOCATED
OVER OVER SUB-26C WATER. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING
OVER THE COOLER WATERS ON SUNDAY. THE CYCLONE COULD THEN
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/9 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HEADING
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE FABIO REMAINS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST
COAST SHOULD PRODUCE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BY DAY 2...AT WHICH TIME
FABIO WILL BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD. THERE
IS SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE GFS/UKMET SOLUTIONS AND THE ECMWF.
THE LATTER SHOWS A SHARPER AND SLOWER TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. BUT
ALL IN ALL...THE MODELS ARE GREATER-THAN-NORMAL AGREEMENT...AND THE
NHC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 16.2N 114.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 16.4N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 16.8N 117.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 17.3N 118.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 18.2N 119.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 20.5N 121.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 23.0N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1200Z 25.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Yellow Evan]

No longer think Fabio will reach Cat 3.

[Zanthe]

Fabio's trying to make a run at category two or three, even.

[brunota2003]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Don't really see anything pointing toward RI...maybe a 15 knot increase at most, if it even strengthens at all. The core has also been too disorganized for my liking, especially for it to go through RI.

On my phone again, cycloneye, can you add the disclaimer? Thanks

cycloneye adds disclaimer