Yellow Evan wrote:Could ex-Fabio affect Hawaii?
Not a snowballs chance in hell.
The remnants are looking like they might hit mexico.
EPAC: FABIO - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re:
Not a snowballs chance in hell.
The remnants are looking like they might hit mexico.
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I'm no expert, everything I say should be taken with a large amount of salt. I could easily be very, very wrong.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane
HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 AM PDT MON JUL 16 2012
THE WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES AS DEEP CONVECTION IS DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE. THE CURRENT WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 70
KT REPRESENTS A BLEND OF DVORAK FINAL T AND CURRENT INTENSITY
NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. FABIO IS PROJECTED TO REACH OCEAN
WATERS COOLER THAN 29 DEG C WITHIN LESS THAN 48 HOURS...AND AS A
RESULT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW SHOWS THE
SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 2...AND THIS IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LGEM GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE VERY COOL WATER
TEMPERATURES...FABIO COULD WEAKEN EVEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN
HERE.
THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8...ALTHOUGH THE SHORTER-TERM
MOTION IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST IS PRODUCING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ALONG 20-25N LATITUDE...AND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
FABIO SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE BREAK. LATER...THE CYCLONE
COULD SLIDE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF NORTH AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE
EFFECT OF THE TROUGH. BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE TOP PORTION OF
THE WEAKENING CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WOULD LEAVE THE REMAINING REMNANT LOW MOVING SLOWLY IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA UNTIL IT LOSES ITS
IDENTITY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS
SOLUTION.
SOME MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FABIO SHOULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN A FEW
DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0900Z 18.3N 119.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 19.0N 120.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 20.3N 121.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 21.6N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 23.0N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z 25.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0600Z 26.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 AM PDT MON JUL 16 2012
THE WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES AS DEEP CONVECTION IS DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE. THE CURRENT WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 70
KT REPRESENTS A BLEND OF DVORAK FINAL T AND CURRENT INTENSITY
NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. FABIO IS PROJECTED TO REACH OCEAN
WATERS COOLER THAN 29 DEG C WITHIN LESS THAN 48 HOURS...AND AS A
RESULT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW SHOWS THE
SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 2...AND THIS IS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LGEM GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE VERY COOL WATER
TEMPERATURES...FABIO COULD WEAKEN EVEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN
HERE.
THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8...ALTHOUGH THE SHORTER-TERM
MOTION IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST IS PRODUCING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ALONG 20-25N LATITUDE...AND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
FABIO SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE BREAK. LATER...THE CYCLONE
COULD SLIDE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF NORTH AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE
EFFECT OF THE TROUGH. BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE TOP PORTION OF
THE WEAKENING CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WOULD LEAVE THE REMAINING REMNANT LOW MOVING SLOWLY IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA UNTIL IT LOSES ITS
IDENTITY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS
SOLUTION.
SOME MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FABIO SHOULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN A FEW
DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0900Z 18.3N 119.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 19.0N 120.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 20.3N 121.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 21.6N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 23.0N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0600Z 25.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0600Z 26.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Hurricane
HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 AM PDT MON JUL 16 2012
THE EYE OF FABIO REMAINS EVIDENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES...
ALTHOUGH IT HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND CLOUD FILLED IN EARLY
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE
EYE IS GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23 TO 24 DEGREES
CELSIUS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT...WHICH IS A
BLEND OF THE DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB. THE RATE
OF WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO HASTEN AS FABIO MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER
WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
ON TUESDAY SHOULD ALSO ASSIST IN THE RAPID DEMISE OF THE
CYCLONE...AND FABIO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMANT LOW IN 48
HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
IT APPEARS THAT THE ANTICIPATED NORTHWESTWARD TURN HAS OCCURRED AS
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT. A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRODUCED BY A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD CAUSE FABIO TO TURN
NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...FABIO IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOME A
SHALLOW SYSTEM.
SOME MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FABIO IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 18.9N 119.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 19.9N 120.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 21.4N 120.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 23.0N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 24.4N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z 26.0N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 AM PDT MON JUL 16 2012
THE EYE OF FABIO REMAINS EVIDENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES...
ALTHOUGH IT HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND CLOUD FILLED IN EARLY
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE
EYE IS GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23 TO 24 DEGREES
CELSIUS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT...WHICH IS A
BLEND OF THE DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB. THE RATE
OF WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO HASTEN AS FABIO MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER
WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
ON TUESDAY SHOULD ALSO ASSIST IN THE RAPID DEMISE OF THE
CYCLONE...AND FABIO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMANT LOW IN 48
HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.
IT APPEARS THAT THE ANTICIPATED NORTHWESTWARD TURN HAS OCCURRED AS
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT. A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRODUCED BY A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD CAUSE FABIO TO TURN
NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...FABIO IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOME A
SHALLOW SYSTEM.
SOME MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FABIO IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 18.9N 119.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 19.9N 120.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 21.4N 120.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 23.0N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 24.4N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1200Z 26.0N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 PM PDT MON JUL 16 2012
FABIO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT IS NOW OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 23C. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA
INDICATE THAT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE EYEWALL OF FABIO HAS
ERODED...BUT A PERSISTENT CURVED BAND EXISTS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED
ESTIMATE OF 60 KT. THIS MAKES FABIO A TROPICAL STORM. THE CYCLONE
IS INGESTING DRIER AIR TO ITS WEST AS SEEN IN VISIBLE AND TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS STABLE AIR MASS COMBINED WITH EVEN
COOLER WATER AHEAD SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. FABIO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 TO 48 HOURS
AND DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO TURN NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/8
KT. A CONTINUED TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
FORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
SOME MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FABIO IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE
ADJUSTED INWARD BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS AT 1718 UTC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/2100Z 19.7N 120.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 20.7N 120.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 22.4N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 23.9N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 25.1N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1800Z 26.8N 119.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 PM PDT MON JUL 16 2012
FABIO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT IS NOW OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 23C. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA
INDICATE THAT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE EYEWALL OF FABIO HAS
ERODED...BUT A PERSISTENT CURVED BAND EXISTS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED
ESTIMATE OF 60 KT. THIS MAKES FABIO A TROPICAL STORM. THE CYCLONE
IS INGESTING DRIER AIR TO ITS WEST AS SEEN IN VISIBLE AND TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS STABLE AIR MASS COMBINED WITH EVEN
COOLER WATER AHEAD SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. FABIO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 TO 48 HOURS
AND DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO TURN NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/8
KT. A CONTINUED TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IS
FORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
SOME MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
FABIO IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE
ADJUSTED INWARD BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS AT 1718 UTC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/2100Z 19.7N 120.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 20.7N 120.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 22.4N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 23.9N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 25.1N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1800Z 26.8N 119.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Kingarabian
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Re:
Kingarabian wrote:What if Fabio defys all odds and hits California O_O.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ca ... hurricanes
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I'm no expert, everything I say should be taken with a large amount of salt. I could easily be very, very wrong.
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Down to 55 knots:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FABIO ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 PM PDT MON JUL 16 2012
...FABIO FADING FAST...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 120.4W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
---------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 PM PDT MON JUL 16 2012
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FABIO HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS THE CLOUD STRUCTURE STEADILY DEGENERATES DUE
TO THE CYCLONE INGESTING COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR...AND ALSO
MOVES OVER SUB-22C SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 55 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A UW-CIMSS ADT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.6/57 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/07 KT. FABIO HAS MADE A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT IS ORIENTED EAST-TO-WEST ALONG 20N
LATITUDE. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED
AFTER THAT AND CONTINUING UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE.
FABIO WILL CONTINUE TO INGEST DRIER AND INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE AIR
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER WATER
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN 20C BY 24 HOURS OR SO. THESE UNFAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS SHOULD COMBINE WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
CYCLONE. FABIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 36 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FABIO
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA IN 48-96 HOURS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL ACROSS THOSE AREAS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0300Z 20.3N 120.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 21.4N 120.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 23.0N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 24.3N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z 25.4N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0000Z 27.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FABIO ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 PM PDT MON JUL 16 2012
...FABIO FADING FAST...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 120.4W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES
---------------------------------------------
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 PM PDT MON JUL 16 2012
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FABIO HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS THE CLOUD STRUCTURE STEADILY DEGENERATES DUE
TO THE CYCLONE INGESTING COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR...AND ALSO
MOVES OVER SUB-22C SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 55 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A UW-CIMSS ADT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.6/57 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/07 KT. FABIO HAS MADE A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT IS ORIENTED EAST-TO-WEST ALONG 20N
LATITUDE. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED
AFTER THAT AND CONTINUING UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE.
FABIO WILL CONTINUE TO INGEST DRIER AND INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE AIR
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER WATER
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN 20C BY 24 HOURS OR SO. THESE UNFAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS SHOULD COMBINE WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE
CYCLONE. FABIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 36 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FABIO
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA IN 48-96 HOURS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL ACROSS THOSE AREAS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0300Z 20.3N 120.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 21.4N 120.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 23.0N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 24.3N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z 25.4N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0000Z 27.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Yellow Evan wrote:Anyway, does anyone here think Fabio has a shot at Cat 4 status? I don't
CrazyC83 wrote:Any chance of significant impact in the US Southwest or California?
Yellow Evan wrote:Could ex-Fabio affect Hawaii?
Kingarabian wrote:What if Fabio defys all odds and hits California O_O.
0% to all of this. The "less than 29ºC" typo was funny though. I doubt the remnants of this thing will enhance rainfall chances, its moisture could be gone much sooner than expected.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012
THERE ARE ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
FABIO. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS STILL VIGOROUS...AND THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS. BECAUSE FABIO IS
ALREADY MOVING OVER 22C WATERS...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 TO
36 HOURS...OR SOONER.
FABIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THIS GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST THEREAFTER. BY THEN...FABIO WILL BE A REMNANT LOW
AND PROBABLY MOVES ERRATICALLY EMBEDDED IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FABIO
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS
THOSE AREAS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0900Z 21.3N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 22.5N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 24.0N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 25.5N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0600Z 26.5N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012
THERE ARE ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
FABIO. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS STILL VIGOROUS...AND THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS. BECAUSE FABIO IS
ALREADY MOVING OVER 22C WATERS...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 TO
36 HOURS...OR SOONER.
FABIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THIS GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST THEREAFTER. BY THEN...FABIO WILL BE A REMNANT LOW
AND PROBABLY MOVES ERRATICALLY EMBEDDED IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FABIO
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS
THOSE AREAS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0900Z 21.3N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 22.5N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 24.0N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 25.5N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0600Z 26.5N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012
FABIO IS SPINNING DOWN OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 22C. ONLY
A SMALL PATCH OF CONVECTION IS LINGERING TO THE EAST OF THE
ESTIMATED CENTER THIS MORNING. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS CONTINUE
TO FALL...AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED TO 40 KT. THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS APPEAR TO BE
DECOUPLING DUE TO SOME WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE EXPECTED
INCREASE IN SHEAR...ALONG WITH EVEN COLDER WATERS AHEAD AND A DRY
AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE FABIO TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY AND A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE REMNANT LOW LOSING ITS
IDENTITY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
THE WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FABIO
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE THE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THAT REGION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 22.3N 120.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 23.6N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 25.2N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z 26.5N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1200Z 27.6N 119.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012
FABIO IS SPINNING DOWN OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 22C. ONLY
A SMALL PATCH OF CONVECTION IS LINGERING TO THE EAST OF THE
ESTIMATED CENTER THIS MORNING. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS CONTINUE
TO FALL...AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED TO 40 KT. THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS APPEAR TO BE
DECOUPLING DUE TO SOME WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE EXPECTED
INCREASE IN SHEAR...ALONG WITH EVEN COLDER WATERS AHEAD AND A DRY
AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE FABIO TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY AND A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE REMNANT LOW LOSING ITS
IDENTITY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
THE WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FABIO
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE THE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THAT REGION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/1500Z 22.3N 120.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 23.6N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 25.2N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0000Z 26.5N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1200Z 27.6N 119.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm
TROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012
FABIO CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...HOWEVER IT IS STILL PRODUCING
AN AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE SLOWING
DECREASING AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 35 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. INCREASING SHEAR...COOL WATERS...AND AN UNFAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE FABIO TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON...AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING WELL WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
FABIO IS STILL MOVING NORTHWARD...ALBEIT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SPEED THAN BEFORE. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 6 TO 8 KT UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE UPDATED
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE
TO...BUT A LITTLER SLOWER THAN...THE GFS MODEL.
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FABIO
IS STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THAT REGION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/2100Z 23.0N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 24.2N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 25.7N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0600Z 27.0N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1800Z 28.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012
FABIO CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...HOWEVER IT IS STILL PRODUCING
AN AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE SLOWING
DECREASING AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 35 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. INCREASING SHEAR...COOL WATERS...AND AN UNFAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE FABIO TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON...AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING WELL WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.
FABIO IS STILL MOVING NORTHWARD...ALBEIT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SPEED THAN BEFORE. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 6 TO 8 KT UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE UPDATED
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE
TO...BUT A LITTLER SLOWER THAN...THE GFS MODEL.
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FABIO
IS STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE
THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THAT REGION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/2100Z 23.0N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 24.2N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 25.7N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0600Z 27.0N 119.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1800Z 28.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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TropicalAnalystwx13
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139060
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Storm
At 00z Best Track,Fabio is downgraded to TD.
EP, 06, 2012071800, , BEST, 0, 235N, 1205W, 30, 1006, TD
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
EP, 06, 2012071800, , BEST, 0, 235N, 1205W, 30, 1006, TD
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139060
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: FABIO - Tropical Depression
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012
FABIO HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND IS BARELY HANGING ON TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS OWING TO A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH
CLOUD TOPS TO -50C LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON
A BLEND OF T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/09 KT. FABIO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT...AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CYCLONE MOVES THROUGH
A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FABIO IS NOT LONG FOR THIS WORLD SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL SOON BE
MOVING OVER SUB-20C SSTS AND INTO A STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND
FABIO SHOULD BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY COMPLETE DISSIPATION IN 48-72 HOURS...IF
NOT SOONER.
ALTHOUGH THE SLOWER MOVING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 48 HOURS...THE DECOUPLED REMNANT MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA IN
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
ACROSS THOSE AREAS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 23.9N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 25.0N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 26.4N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/1200Z 27.6N 119.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/0000Z 28.5N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012
FABIO HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND IS BARELY HANGING ON TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS OWING TO A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH
CLOUD TOPS TO -50C LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON
A BLEND OF T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/09 KT. FABIO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT...AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CYCLONE MOVES THROUGH
A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FABIO IS NOT LONG FOR THIS WORLD SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL SOON BE
MOVING OVER SUB-20C SSTS AND INTO A STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND
FABIO SHOULD BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY COMPLETE DISSIPATION IN 48-72 HOURS...IF
NOT SOONER.
ALTHOUGH THE SLOWER MOVING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AFTER 48 HOURS...THE DECOUPLED REMNANT MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA IN
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
ACROSS THOSE AREAS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 23.9N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 25.0N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 26.4N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/1200Z 27.6N 119.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/0000Z 28.5N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Post-Tropical
Last Advisory Written
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 AM PDT WED JUL 18 2012
THE REMAINING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH FABIO ARE DISPLACED OVER 100 N
MI TO THE NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND THIS SYSTEM
NO LONGER HAS THE CRITERIA NEEDED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THEREFORE...FABIO IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AND THIS IS
THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
REMAINS OVER COLD WATER AND IN A STRONG WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR 9 KT. A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED UNTIL
THE CYCLONE OPENS INTO A TROUGH.
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGES FROM SAN DIEGO SHOW SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
APPROACHING THE AREA. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN THAT REGION. MARINE
FORECASTS OF THE REMANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 25.7N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 19/0000Z 26.5N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 19/1200Z 27.5N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0000Z 28.3N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 AM PDT WED JUL 18 2012
THE REMAINING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH FABIO ARE DISPLACED OVER 100 N
MI TO THE NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND THIS SYSTEM
NO LONGER HAS THE CRITERIA NEEDED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
THEREFORE...FABIO IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AND THIS IS
THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
REMAINS OVER COLD WATER AND IN A STRONG WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR 9 KT. A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED UNTIL
THE CYCLONE OPENS INTO A TROUGH.
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGES FROM SAN DIEGO SHOW SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
APPROACHING THE AREA. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN THAT REGION. MARINE
FORECASTS OF THE REMANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECAST
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 25.7N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 19/0000Z 26.5N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 19/1200Z 27.5N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/0000Z 28.3N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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brunota2003
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Post-Tropical
This just adds to the legacy of this Epac system!
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
229 PM PDT WED JUL 18 2012
CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-191300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
229 PM PDT WED JUL 18 2012
...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA INCLUDING THE COAST AND VALLEYS...
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ONCE HURRICANE FABIO COMBINED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
FOR VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES
THURSDAY MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SANTA
BARBARA...VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
WINDS AND DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
PERSONS PLANNING ON OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES OVER THE AREA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE WEATHER AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER AT THE FIRST
SIGN OF THREATENING WEATHER. WHEN LIGHTNING STRIKES...THE SAFEST
PLACES TO BE ARE IN A SUBSTANTIAL BUILDING OR HARD-TOPPED METAL
VEHICLE. REMEMBER...WHEN THUNDER ROARS...GO INDOORS!
$$
SIRARD
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1107 AM PDT WED JUL 18 2012
PZZ750-775-190145-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
30 NM-
WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO
60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND-
1107 AM PDT WED JUL 18 2012
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS FROM SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND
AND COASTAL OBSERVERS CONTINUE TO SHOW BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARDS THE NORTH NORTHEAST AT 30 KT.
THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FABIO. THEY ARE HIGH BASED...AND ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS. MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 30
KT OR MORE IN THEIR VICINITY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES.
BOATERS ARE URGED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR SHOULD THREATENING WEATHER
DEVELOP. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.
$$
BALFOUR
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Just a small town southern boy helping other humans.
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somethingfunny
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Re: EPAC: FABIO - Post-Tropical
I wish I'd seen this video and posted it while Fabio was still an active tropical cyclone. If the remnants affect southern California though, maybe this thread will still get a few more views. 
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTv_R6UAYis[/youtube]
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTv_R6UAYis[/youtube]
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I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.
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