EPAC: FABIO - Post-Tropical

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Fabio has intensified further since the 5PM PDT Special Advisory, and should be up to 110 mph or 115 mph at 8PM PDT.

[Zanthe]

Fabio has intensified further since the 5PM PDT Special Advisory, and should be up to 110 mph or 115 mph at 8PM PDT.

Easily...Can't wait to see if we have another major hurricane.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Lol, they held the storm at 90 knots.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012

FABIO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE RELEASE OF THE SPECIAL ADVISORY
AROUND 0000 UTC. THE 20 N MI EYE REMAINS CIRCULAR AND DISTINCT IN
SATELLITE IMAGES...AND THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN IS FAIRLY
SYMMETRIC. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 90
KT...THEREFORE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE.

IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT FABIO IS NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY...AS THE EYE
IS CLOSE TO THE 26C ISOTHERM. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER SUB-26C WATERS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...AND THE SSTS ALONG
THE FORECAST TRACK STEADILY DECREASE BEYOND THAT TIME. THESE
UNFAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH A DRIER AIR MASS
AHEAD OF FABIO SHOULD CAUSE SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. FABIO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4
DAYS WHEN IT IS OVER WATERS OF ABOUT 20C AND ENCOUNTERS AND AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
LGEM.

FABIO IS STILL MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING
HANGS ON TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE
FABIO TO SLOW DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE TVCE CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 16.4N 115.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 16.7N 117.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 17.2N 118.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 18.0N 120.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 19.0N 120.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 21.5N 121.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 23.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0000Z 25.0N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[brunota2003]

The convection on the west side of the eye has fallen apart, according to MIMIC-TC, the eyewall is open on the NW side. There are barely any reds on AVN imagery, and the oranges are no longer intact on the western side. Fabio may have peaked at around 95 knots earlier, but 90 knots looks good right now...as the sat presentation has started to degrade since about 0030 UTC.

[euro6208]

I am disappointed in the lack of attention Fabio is getting on here. For a Ca 2 storms that have just 4 pages, that is really low, even by EPAC standards and compared to Daniel and Emilia. Even Aletta had 8 pages. Some will argue that because EPAC storms don't affect land, they don't get attention. But the ATL storms that don't affect land and are boring would have a longer thread than Fabio's.

I will apologize for my rant above and admit I have some EPAC bias.

Anyway, does anyone here think Fabio has a shot at Cat 4 status? I don't

yes i can feel your disappointment...same here in the wpac...

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012

FABIO IS MAINTAINING A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OF -50 C OR COLDER. USING DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS
KEPT AT 90 KT. THE HURRICANE IS NOT LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THIS
INTENSITY MUCH LONGER...AS IT WILL BE TRAVERSING PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS AND MOVING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS. FABIO SHOULD
WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN 1-2 DAYS AND DEGENERATE INTO A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4...OR SOONER. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM RUN AND IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION.

CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS TAKING PLACE...AND THE MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO
BE 285/8. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING NEAR
AND OVER CALIFORNIA SHOULD CREATE A BREAK OR WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 120W LONGITUDE. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...FABIO IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD WITH
DECREASING FORWARD SPEED AS IT NEARS THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT
FAR FROM THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 16.6N 116.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 17.0N 118.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 17.8N 119.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 18.8N 120.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 20.0N 121.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 22.5N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 25.0N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0600Z 26.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Yellow Evan]

I am disappointed in the lack of attention Fabio is getting on here. For a Ca 2 storms that have just 4 pages, that is really low, even by EPAC standards and compared to Daniel and Emilia. Even Aletta had 8 pages. Some will argue that because EPAC storms don't affect land, they don't get attention. But the ATL storms that don't affect land and are boring would have a longer thread than Fabio's.

I will apologize for my rant above and admit I have some EPAC bias.

Anyway, does anyone here think Fabio has a shot at Cat 4 status? I don't

yes i can feel your disappointment...same here in the wpac...

Well, all the non-ATL basins need to get more love, though I find it harder to understand the basins other than the ATL and EPAc due to stuff like 10 min sustained.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012

FABIO HAS NOT YET BEGUN TO WEAKEN. THE HURRICANE REMAINS RATHER
SYMMETRIC WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY CLOUD TOPS OF -50
TO -60 DEGREES CELSIUS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI-NUMBERS AND A RECENT
CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED AT 90 KT. FABIO WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING. FABIO IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY AND DEGENERATE TO A
POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. THE TRACK
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FABIO IS
FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD...AS A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA PRODUCES A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
PREDICTED FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD.
THE HWRF...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF.
FOR NOW...THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND THE SLOWER ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 16.9N 117.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 17.4N 118.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 18.3N 120.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 19.4N 121.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 20.6N 121.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 23.3N 121.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1200Z 25.2N 121.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1200Z 26.0N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[euro6208]

I am disappointed in the lack of attention Fabio is getting on here. For a Ca 2 storms that have just 4 pages, that is really low, even by EPAC standards and compared to Daniel and Emilia. Even Aletta had 8 pages. Some will argue that because EPAC storms don't affect land, they don't get attention. But the ATL storms that don't affect land and are boring would have a longer thread than Fabio's.

I will apologize for my rant above and admit I have some EPAC bias.

Anyway, does anyone here think Fabio has a shot at Cat 4 status? I don't

yes i can feel your disappointment...same here in the wpac...

Well, all the non-ATL basins need to get more love, though I find it harder to understand the basins other than the ATL and EPAc due to stuff like 10 min sustained.

although JTWC is not official, they use 1 min.

[Chickenzilla]

Fabio still has a nice eye on visible imagery.

[Kingarabian]

He really does . IMO really looks like he is a cat.3.

[brunota2003]

Eyewall is still open on the North and West sides, according to microwave imagery. The eye is completely clouded over, is no longer circular, and is disappearing. Convection on the western side, while making a bit of a comeback nearest the eye, is weakening, with blues becoming visible on AVN (instead of oranges or reds). Reds are hit and miss, there were none at all earlier and now there are a few. Latest Raw T#s from CIMSS are down to 5.2, or about 93 knots (from 5.8 earlier), along with the adjusted T#s. 18Z SSD T#s are T4.5/5.0 (4.5 is 77 knots). Though SATCON, earlier, pegged the intensity at 100 knots, according to CIMSS' intensity box.

My personal guess on the current intensity is 85 knots...and if trends continue, I could see 80 knots by advisory time.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012

FABIO HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE
LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A FEW BREAKS OR DRY
SLOTS EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST
DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED
ESTIMATE OF 85 KT. THE WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS FABIO MOVES OVER MUCH COLDER WATER
AND INTO A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...AND
BRINGS FABIO BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3 WHEN IT
WILL BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 20C. DISSIPATION IS NOW
SHOWN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS.

THE HURRICANE IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT...AND THE LATEST
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/9. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD
CAUSING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN. THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD ALLOW FABIO TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD...AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE
RIGHT...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF RUN AND THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 17.4N 118.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 18.0N 119.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 19.0N 120.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 20.2N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 21.5N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 24.4N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1800Z 26.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[CrazyC83]

Based on the post-Special Advisory small peak in the ADT and other data, I would estimate 95 kt was the peak intensity.

Any chance of significant impact in the US Southwest or California?

[Yellow Evan]

Any RBT data out?

[cycloneye]

Any RBT data out?

EP, 06, 2012071600, , BEST, 0, 176N, 1187W, 80, 979, HU

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FABIO ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012

...FABIO WEAKENS A LITTLE...FASTER WEAKENING EXPECTED TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 119.0W
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012

FABIO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AS RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE NORTH SIDE OF THE EYEWALL HAS ERODED AS CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE EYE WARM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS FABIO MOVES
ACROSS A SHARP SST GRADIENT. FASTER WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THAT
TIME AS THE CYCLONE REACHES SUB-23C WATERS BY 24 HOURS WITH EVEN
COOLER SSTS AHEAD. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFTER 48 HOURS
SHOULD SHEAR OFF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND FABIO IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED IN 4
OR 5 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM
GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/09. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
FABIO WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD INTO AN EXPANDING BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD
INTO A TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST. AFTER THE CYCLONE SHEARS
APART...THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL
DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 17.8N 119.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 18.5N 120.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 19.6N 121.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 20.9N 121.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 22.3N 121.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 25.2N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z 26.2N 120.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Yellow Evan]

Could ex-Fabio affect Hawaii?

[brunota2003]

Not even close to Hawaii...the forecast has Fabio heading northwards and swinging back toward the east as it dissipates...a good 35 degrees longitude east of Hawaii.