WPAC: KHANUN - Post-Tropical

[dhoeze]

Euro has this kissing the Northern tip of Luzon (Philippines)

Japan folks,

Stay safe. God bless

[Meow]

TD
Issued at 01:30 UTC, 16 July 2012

<Analyses at 16/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N22°30'(22.5°)
E138°25'(138.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 16/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N23°50'(23.8°)
E136°00'(136.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 150km(80NM)

<Forecast for 17/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N25°10'(25.2°)
E133°40'(133.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[RobWESTPACWX]

JTWC is really sticking to pointing towards the bases at this time on Okinawa, even Im sure they will start to shift north here soon and go with JMA and what many of the models are showing.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Here is my latest video on the TD and where its going.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mI0Ho-vbIpI[/youtube]

[Typhoon Hunter]

Euro has this kissing the Northern tip of Luzon (Philippines)

Japan folks,

Stay safe. God bless

That's a future "phantom" storm which may well develop later in the week, 08W will pass well away from Luzon and threaten Japan/Korea.

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 23.1N 137.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 137.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 24.7N 134.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 26.4N 131.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 28.7N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 31.9N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 39.7N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 23.5N 136.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND
170300Z.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
152332Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AS WELL AS 152322Z SSMIS AND 152114Z
CORIOLIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW. TD
08W HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, WITH
DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. TD 08W REMAINS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BENEATH A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELLS TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHEAST ARE ENHANCING OUTFLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, RECENT ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER, THE
OUTFLOW CONNECTION TO THE TUTT CELL TO THE SOUTHEAST APPEARS TO BE
DISSIPATING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD TD 08W FROM THE
EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED EQUATORWARD AND SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY IN THE TAU 00 TO TAU 24 FORECAST PERIOD BASED ON MORE
WESTWARD AND SLOWER THAN EXPECTED STORM MOTION OBSERVED OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS.
B. TD 08W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED EAST OF HONSHU. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS BEFORE TURNING POLEWARD AHEAD
OF A NEARLY STATIONARY MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE YELLOW SEA. TD
08W WILL INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LLCC
CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE AND OUTFLOW TOWARD THE TUTT CELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST DECREASES. AFTER TAU 24, TD 08W WILL ROUND THE STEERING
RIDGE AXIS AND ACCELERATE POLEWARD AHEAD OF THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH.
PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT WILL HALT THE
INTENSIFICATION TREND AND INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING BY TAU 48. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TIGHTLY-GROUPED
NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST PACKAGE. GIVEN THE STRAIGHTFORWARD SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

very small cdo...


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 992.6mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.2 3.5

estimates already at 45 knots min...looks like its getting underestimated...

[dhoeze]

Euro has this kissing the Northern tip of Luzon (Philippines)

Japan folks,

Stay safe. God bless

That's a future "phantom" storm which may well develop later in the week, 08W will pass well away from Luzon and threaten Japan/Korea.

I see. Thanks TH!

[Meow]

This is now a tropical storm.





TS 1207 (KHANUN)
Issued at 07:15 UTC, 16 July 2012

<Analyses at 16/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N24°05'(24.1°)
E136°10'(136.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE560km(300NM)
SW220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 16/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N25°00'(25.0°)
E133°55'(133.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 17/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°30'(26.5°)
E131°20'(131.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 18/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N30°00'(30.0°)
E127°05'(127.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 19/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N35°55'(35.9°)
E125°25'(125.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 20/06 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N39°30'(39.5°)
E127°05'(127.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 20km/h(10kt)
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)

<Forecast for 21/06 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N42°05'(42.1°)
E128°35'(128.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h(7kt)
Radius of probability circle 700km(375NM)

[Meow]

The JTWC has not upgraded Khanun to a tropical storm.



WTPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 24.2N 136.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 136.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 25.7N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 27.6N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 30.4N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 33.8N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 40.8N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 24.6N 135.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN

[Chickenzilla]

Unusual. JMA uses 10-minute sustained winds for the storm's intensity while JTWC uses 1-minute sustained winds for that so I'd expect that JTWC had upgraded it before JMA.

[francis327]

Video update by WestPac Wx Casters Pat

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hB313nCiosM[/youtube]

[Meow]

Unusual. JMA uses 10-minute sustained winds for the storm's intensity while JTWC uses 1-minute sustained winds for that so I'd expect that JTWC had upgraded it before JMA.

That is usual in 2012, as the JMA often upgraded storms before the JTWC.

[dexterlabio]

im used to see both agencies not "synced" with each other...like JMA reporting a storm's intensity greater than the reported intensity by JTWC, which should not be the case afaik because JMA reports winds based on 10-min average versus JTWC's 1-min average.

but most of the time i see JMA intensity estimates way lower than that of JTWC, like when JTWC says a TC is a cat-1 typhoon but for JMA it remains a 40kt TS (hi Pakhar), big difference even if you consider the JMA using 10-min average.. all in all it makes me think the two agencies just have different techniques or methods of analyzing a tropical cyclone.

[Meow]

TS 1207 (KHANUN)
Issued at 13:50 UTC, 16 July 2012

<Analyses at 16/13 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N25°00'(25.0°)
E134°25'(134.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE560km(300NM)
SW220km(120NM)

<Estimate for 16/14 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N25°05'(25.1°)
E134°05'(134.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE560km(300NM)
SW220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 17/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°10'(26.2°)
E131°40'(131.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 70km(40NM)

<Forecast for 17/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N28°05'(28.1°)
E129°25'(129.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 18/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N33°35'(33.6°)
E125°50'(125.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 19/12 UTC>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N38°05'(38.1°)
E124°55'(124.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)

[Meow]

The JTWC has upgraded Khanun to a tropical storm.



WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 25.0N 134.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 134.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 26.7N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 28.8N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 31.6N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 34.7N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 40.8N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 133.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST OF
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z,
170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN

[Meow]

The PAGASA...

[RobWESTPACWX]

IM sorry PAGASA but really? Really? I mean why even warn on it?

[Meow]

but most of the time i see JMA intensity estimates way lower than that of JTWC, like when JTWC says a TC is a cat-1 typhoon but for JMA it remains a 40kt TS (hi Pakhar), big difference even if you consider the JMA using 10-min average.. all in all it makes me think the two agencies just have different techniques or methods of analyzing a tropical cyclone.

I guess they use different techniques. Sarika, Tokage and Banyan in 2011 were both considered as tropical storms by the JMA, but the JTWC considered them as tropical depressions.

[Meow]

IM sorry PAGASA but really? Really? I mean why even warn on it?

For it entered the PAR.