WPAC: KHANUN - Post-Tropical

[Typhoon Hunter]

Without recon it's purely subjective, it's rare to see all agencies in Wpac carrying same intensity for a storm regardless of the difference between 10-min and 1-min winds.

Euro - what are you seeing that makes you think this is being underestimated in strength? Looks like a very minimal tropical storm to me right now looking at latest microwave and Dvorak.

[Meow]

Khanun is now extremely tiny...

[euro6208]

im used to see both agencies not "synced" with each other...like JMA reporting a storm's intensity greater than the reported intensity by JTWC, which should not be the case afaik because JMA reports winds based on 10-min average versus JTWC's 1-min average.

but most of the time i see JMA intensity estimates way lower than that of JTWC, like when JTWC says a TC is a cat-1 typhoon but for JMA it remains a 40kt TS (hi Pakhar), big difference even if you consider the JMA using 10-min average.. all in all it makes me think the two agencies just have different techniques or methods of analyzing a tropical cyclone.

JMA using 10 min always seem to upgrade low pressure areas into a depression first (no matter how weak looking it is) but later as the storm intensifies, they are always behind JTWC...this year has been bizarre in that JMA likes to classify storms with an *eye* as tropical storms while JTWC has it as a typhoon....looks like 1 min and 10 min have different techniques...

[euro6208]

but most of the time i see JMA intensity estimates way lower than that of JTWC, like when JTWC says a TC is a cat-1 typhoon but for JMA it remains a 40kt TS (hi Pakhar), big difference even if you consider the JMA using 10-min average.. all in all it makes me think the two agencies just have different techniques or methods of analyzing a tropical cyclone.

I guess they use different techniques. Sarika, Tokage and Banyan in 2011 were both considered as tropical storms by the JMA, but the JTWC considered them as tropical depressions.

theres 3 you mentioned...JTWC has Sarika and Banyan as Tropical storms with 35 knot winds.

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 005
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 25.0N 134.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0N 134.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 26.7N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 28.8N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 31.6N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 34.7N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 40.8N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 25.4N 133.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST OF
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z,
170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (KHANUN) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 161039Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES
TIGHTLY-WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A
16/00Z AMSU CROSS-SECTION INDICATES A STRENGTHENING WARM-CORE WITH A
2C WARM ANOMALY INDICATIVE OF THE RECENT CONSOLIDATION. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TS 08W IS UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE VWS IS
OFFSET BY THE RAPID WESTWARD TRACK MOTION AND THE OVERALL GOOD
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER KOREA AND JAPAN.
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW AND A
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 36 KNOTS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO
35 KNOTS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 08W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING SOUTH OF HONSHU. THE 16/00Z
UPPER AIR DATA INDICATES A BROAD MIDLATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EAST
CHINA SEA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND
MAINLAND JAPAN. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THIS TROUGH HAS REMAINED
STATIONARY WITH HEIGHT RISES ACROSS KOREA AND JAPAN ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BUILDING STR. THIS DATA SUPPORTS THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE,
WHICH INDICATES A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR DRIVING A NORTHWARD TRACK
INTO SOUTH KOREA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED THROUGH TAU 36
BUT DIVERGES NORTH OF CHEJU-DO. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE RE-CURVES
THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BUT NOGAPS DISSIPATES THE
SYSTEM NEAR CHEJU-DO THEN ERRONEOUSLY JUMPS THE TRACKER
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL JTWC
FORECAST IS POSITIONED FASTER AND EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO
OFFSET NOGAPS' ERRONEOUS SOLUTION. TS 08W SHOULD PEAK AT 45 KNOTS BY
TAU 36. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO
COOLER SST (NORTH OF 30N), INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, UPPER-
LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND LAND INTERACTION NEAR TAU 48.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 988.0mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.8 3.8

satellite estimates are near 55 knots min...this is such a compact storm...

[Meow]

theres 3 you mentioned...JTWC has Sarika and Banyan as Tropical storms with 35 knot winds.

The JTWC has downgraded Sarika and Banyan to tropical depressions with 30kt winds in their best track data.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Centre about to pass right over Minami and Kita-daito islands. Max gust reported there so far about 40kts so nothing too extreme yet. Pressure 995.5hPa.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today-92011.html?areaCode=000&groupCode=65

[dexterlabio]

IM sorry PAGASA but really? Really? I mean why even warn on it?

lol. thats a quick way for us to move on with the 6th storm in the Philippines. Up next will be Typhoon Fengshen/Frank's "successor" for this year. By the way, someone was asking long time ago what's the replacement name for "Frank" when it was retired in 2008...it's Ferdie.

[dexterlabio]

it was like Khanun was stripped off of its large blanket of convection yesterday. interesting though that the convection separated away from the storm continues to exist. maybe another system developing out of it?

[Meow]

Note: Khanun was already 45kt winds at 00Z.



TS 1207 (KHANUN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 17 July 2012

<Analyses at 17/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N27°50'(27.8°)
E128°20'(128.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE390km(210NM)
SW220km(120NM)

<Estimate for 17/13 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N28°00'(28.0°)
E128°05'(128.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE390km(210NM)
SW220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 18/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N30°30'(30.5°)
E126°50'(126.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 18/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N34°25'(34.4°)
E125°25'(125.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 35km/h(18kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 19/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N39°05'(39.1°)
E124°35'(124.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 20/12 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N41°50'(41.8°)
E126°00'(126.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)

[Meow]

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 27.8N 128.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8N 128.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 30.5N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 33.8N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 37.4N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 40.9N 125.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 28.5N 127.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z,
180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

very well organized...

WDPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (KHANUN) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 95 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 170931Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT TIGHTLY-CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ANIMATED
RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A DEFINED CENTER WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS VERY
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND TRACK MOTION BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED RADAR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. TS 08W HAS BEGUN TO
MOVE AWAY FROM OKINAWA AFTER MAKING A CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH OF
85 NM AT APPROXIMATELY 17/11Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
50 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO
55 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR
POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 08W HAS FINALLY TURNED POLEWARD AND IS TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR), WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD TO JUST NORTHWEST OF THE RYUKYU
ISLANDS. THE 17/00Z 500MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE WEST SEA AND EAST CHINA SEA WITH THE STR BUILDING
OVER JAPAN AND THE KOREAN PENINSULA AS EVIDENCED BY 4 TO 8 DECAMETER
HEIGHT RISES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW (FROM CHEJU-DO NORTHWARD INTO NORTH
KOREA). THEREFORE, AS INDICATED BY ALL THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE,
TS 08W IS FORECAST TO TURN SHARPLY POLEWARD BY TAU 12 AND TRACK
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF SOUTH KOREA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
VERY CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION AND IS POSITIONED EAST OF AND
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. TS 08W APPEARS TO HAVE
PEAKED IN INTENSITY BUT COULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
QUICKLY NORTH OF 30N AND ENCOUNTERS COOLER SST, INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS THE SYSTEM SKIRTS THE WESTERN
COAST OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA. TS 08W IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER
NORTH KOREA BY TAU 48.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

possible typhoon? that looks like an eye to my amateur eyes...


TXPQ23 KNES 171549
TCSWNP

A. 08W (KHANUN)

B. 17/1501Z

C. 28.1N

D. 127.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...1257Z AMSU IMAGE SUGGESTED THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE AND WAS
HELPFUL IN ESTIMATING THE POSITION. 7/10 WHITE BANDING YIELDS A DT OF
3.5 BUT BANDING FEATURES WERE NOT CLEAR CUT UNDERNEATH THE OVERCAST. PT
IS 3.5 AS IS THE MET WHICH WAS BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

17/1257Z 27.9N 127.8E AMSU


...TURK

i would estimate the intensity at 70 knots 1 min...

[cycloneye]

Upgraded to Severe Tropical Storm.

WTPQ20 RJTD 172100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1207 KHANUN (1207)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 172100UTC 28.9N 127.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 182100UTC 35.5N 125.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE N 18KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 191800UTC 40.4N 126.5E 180NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[RobWESTPACWX]

Here is my latest video update on this storm, plus I take a look at Invest 92W near the PI.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=3cCn1Tp8VIE

[RobWESTPACWX]

Looks like Khanun made landfall just now.

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (KHANUN) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 31.9N 126.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.9N 126.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 35.2N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 38.3N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 40.4N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 32.7N 126.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CHEJU-DO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z
IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (KHANUN) WARNING
NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 08W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CHEJU-DO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS TRACKED
INTO INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THE
SYSTEM HAS ALSO SEEN A SIGNIFICANT TRACK SPEED INCREASE OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 50 KNOTS
BASED ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE LLCC REMAINING WELL ORGANIZED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK BETWEEN
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) CENTERED SOUTH OF HONSHU, JAPAN, AND A STATIONARY MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN ASIA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE CREST OF THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED STR AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS BEEN SQUELCHED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
LOCATED EAST OF TAIWAN EXTENDING EQUATORWARD TO LUZON.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE STR INTO THE
KOREAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT
WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY WEAKEN TS 08W PRIOR TO LANDFALL DUE TO
INCREASING VWS AND SSTS IN THE 22 TO 25 CELSIUS RANGE. WHAT LLCC
REMAINS UPON LANDFALL WILL SEE FURTHER DEGRADATION AS IT TRACKS OVER
LAND TOWARDS THE SEA OF JAPAN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH TAU 24, HOWEVER THERE IS A LARGE
DISPARITY BEYOND TAU 36. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE REMNANTS OF THE
LLCC WILL TRACK BACK OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN, WHILE GFDN, WBAR AND
NGPS INDICATE A CONTINUED TRACK INTO NORTHEASTERN CHINA. AS THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE DISSIPATED AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 36,
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CONSENSUS OF
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

indeed it has made landfall...

[Meow]

Khanun made landfall over Jeju.



TS 1207 (KHANUN)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 18 July 2012

<Analyses at 18/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N33°40'(33.7°)
E126°20'(126.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE390km(210NM)
SW220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 19/00 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N36°40'(36.7°)
E126°40'(126.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 19/12 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N39°35'(39.6°)
E127°20'(127.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1004hPa
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)