WPAC: VICENTE - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3406
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC: VICENTE - Typhoon

#101 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:24 am

euro6208 wrote:
TPPN10 PGTW 231456

A. TYPHOON 09W (VICENTE)

B. 23/1432Z

C. 21.3N

D. 113.9E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D3.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. RI CAUSED T# TO BREAK
CONSTRAINTS, DEVELOPING 3.5 T #S IN 24 HR.
OW EYE SURR BY DG
WITH COLDEST SHADE B YIELDS A 6.0 + .5 FOR A BANDING FEATURE
YIELDS A 6.5 DT. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
23/1001Z 20.8N 114.5E SSMS
23/1003Z 20.9N 114.4E SSMS
23/1235Z 21.0N 114.3E SSMI


BELMONDO

already at category 4 ...can this make a run to category 5 at landfall? :double:



i think i just got high. :eek: :eek: i checked the satfix from jtwc an hour ago for some random reason and DT was just at 4.5 and now i am looking at this. 6.5, is this really possible?? well the typhoon looks really intense right now so, yeah...
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3406
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC: VICENTE - Typhoon

#102 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:47 am

definitely the next major typhoon of the year after Guchol. i might be staying up late just to see the next JTWC warning.

JMA seems not to cope up with the rapid development going on over Vicente, still at 65kts 10-min winds...but this storm is also creeping slowly, prolonged wind event would be bad news and also some time for the eye to stay on water and strengthen further. let's see if there will still be time for the next warning from JMA to report the RI, or an intermediate warning will be issued...
Last edited by dexterlabio on Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:51 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: VICENTE - Typhoon

#103 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:48 am

to everyone in hong kong and southern china, your thoughts and prayers are with us...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: VICENTE - Typhoon

#104 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:51 am

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

Meow

#105 Postby Meow » Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:55 am

The HKO has issued the Hurricane Signal No. 10 at 16:45Z! The first No. 10 since Typhoon York in 1999!
Last edited by Meow on Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Amoygal
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 16
Joined: Sun May 29, 2011 8:46 pm
Location: Taiwan

Re: WPAC: VICENTE - Typhoon

#106 Postby Amoygal » Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:56 am

HKO has just raised Hurricane Signal No. 10. Starting to get a little concerned in my hotel room with the wall of windows. :eek:

ETA: Upon further inspection, it seems aforementioned wall of windows is pouring water all over the floor. Rain getting much heavier.
0 likes   

Meow

Re: WPAC: VICENTE - Typhoon

#107 Postby Meow » Mon Jul 23, 2012 12:22 pm

The JTWC amended Vicente’s 1-min maximum sustained winds to 120 knots!

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 231500 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AMENDED//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (VICENTE) WARNING NR 012A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 21.1N 114.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 114.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 22.1N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.8N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 23.0N 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 23.0N 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 113.8E.
TYPHOON 09W (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTH OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: MAJOR CHANGE TO INITIAL INTENSITY AND
INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z.//
NNNN
0 likes   

Chickenzilla
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 109
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2011 7:31 am
Location: Croatia (Southeast Europe)

Re: WPAC: VICENTE - Typhoon

#108 Postby Chickenzilla » Mon Jul 23, 2012 12:56 pm

The discussion by JTWC :darrow:
617
wdpn31 pgtw 231500
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/prognostic reasoning for typhoon 09w (Vicente) warning nr 12//
rmks/
1. For meteorologists.
2. 6 hour summary and analysis.
Typhoon (TY) 09w (Vicente), located approximately 80 nm south of
Hong Kong, has tracked north-northwestward at 07 knots over the past
six hours. Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery (eir) shows
an expanding eye feature developing as the system tracks towards
coastal China. Radar imagery and position fixes from pgtw provide
high confidence in the positioning of TY 09w. The current intensity
has been increased slightly over the past six hours based
predominantly on the 4.5/4.5 Dvorak estimate from pgtw, rjtd and
knes. The subtropical ridge (str) located over the southern portion
of the korean peninsula has become the dominant steering influence
over the past 12 hours. Upper level analysis indicates a point
source anticyclone has developed over the LLCC and is helping to
vent the system in the poleward and equatorward channel, leading to
the rapid development observed over the past six hours.
3. Forecast reasoning.
A. No change to the forecast philosophy since the previous
prognostic reasoning message.
B. TY 09w is expected to track north-northwestwards along the
southwestern periphery of the str anchored to the northeast.
Continued intensification is expected over the next 06 hours, but
will be capped as TY 09w begins to make landfall within the next 12
hours. Favorable upper level environment and warm (29-30 celsius)
sea surface temperatures will be the primary factors causing
intensification until surface fictional effects lead to dissipation
of the system by tau 72. Dynamic model guidance is in good agreement
with the track into southern China, providing high confidence in the
forecasted track and weakening trend.//

What is the meaning of the text I bolded? :double:
Vicente is nearing landfall. :darrow:
Image
0 likes   

Meow

#109 Postby Meow » Mon Jul 23, 2012 1:53 pm

The JMA still kept conservative on strength.

Image

TY 1208 (VICENTE)
Issued at 18:40 UTC, 23 July 2012

<Analyses at 23/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N21°40'(21.7°)
E113°25'(113.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more S170km(90NM)
N130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more S390km(210NM)
N280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 24/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°50'(22.8°)
E110°55'(110.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area S190km(100NM)
N150km(80NM)

<Forecast for 24/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°40'(22.7°)
E108°05'(108.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 25/18 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N22°05'(22.1°)
E105°25'(105.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139082
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: VICENTE - Typhoon

#110 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 23, 2012 3:24 pm

Makes landfall south of Hong Kong.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 33
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:

#111 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Jul 23, 2012 4:59 pm

Chickenzilla: I think they meant surface frictional effects...just a typo.
0 likes   
Just a small town southern boy helping other humans.

leanne_uk
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 214
Age: 41
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2009 4:38 pm
Location: Loughborough countryside, Leicestershire, UK

Re: WPAC: VICENTE - Typhoon

#112 Postby leanne_uk » Mon Jul 23, 2012 9:27 pm

My thoughts to all effected by this typhoon
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 139082
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: VICENTE - Severe Tropical Storm

#113 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 23, 2012 9:33 pm

Downgraded from Typhoon.

STS 1208 (VICENTE)
Issued at 00:55 UTC, 24 July 2012
<Analyses at 24/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N22°05'(22.1°)
E112°30'(112.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more S150km(80NM)
N110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more S390km(210NM)
N280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 24/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°50'(22.8°)
E109°25'(109.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 25/00 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N22°25'(22.4°)
E106°25'(106.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: VICENTE - Severe Tropical Storm

#114 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 23, 2012 9:57 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (VICENTE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 22.3N 112.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 112.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 23.0N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 23.0N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 22.9N 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 111.6E.
TYPHOON 09W (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM WEST OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. TY 09W MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 232000Z AND, AS
INDICATED IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY, HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME
MORE DISORGANIZED SINCE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TY 09W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
CHINA AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
NNNN

Image

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: VICENTE - Severe Tropical Storm

#115 Postby euro6208 » Mon Jul 23, 2012 10:04 pm

oh so typhoon vicente made landfall as a category 4 with 115 knots winds!



Image

incredible image of vicente right before landfall...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

Meow

#116 Postby Meow » Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:34 pm

A final warning on a typhoon with 100 knots winds? :eek:
0 likes   

JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 33
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:

Re: WPAC: VICENTE - Severe Tropical Storm

#117 Postby JonathanBelles » Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:40 pm

Didn't see this picture posted. It's of Typhoon Vicente on the way to Hong Kong.

Image
0 likes   

Meow

Re: WPAC: VICENTE - Severe Tropical Storm

#118 Postby Meow » Mon Jul 23, 2012 11:57 pm

JonathanBelles wrote:Didn't see this picture posted. It's of Typhoon Vicente on the way to Hong Kong.

Image


Do not cheat us. It was a vortex of Severe Tropical Storm Malou (1009).
0 likes   

User avatar
somethingfunny
ChatStaff
ChatStaff
Posts: 3926
Age: 35
Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
Location: McKinney, Texas

Re: WPAC: VICENTE - Severe Tropical Storm

#119 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Jul 24, 2012 12:31 am

Yeah that's just a low-level swirl with some cirrus above it. Hurricanes/typhoons are much more substantial things at all layers of the atmosphere.

This, on the other hand, is from Vicente and will enter the annals of hilarious storm reporting folklore:

Image
0 likes   
I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.

Meow

#120 Postby Meow » Tue Jul 24, 2012 2:00 am

Vicente is still a severe tropical storm in Guangxi, China.

Image

STS 1208 (VICENTE)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 24 July 2012

<Analyses at 24/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N23°00'(23.0°)
E110°30'(110.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more S390km(210NM)
N280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 24/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°55'(22.9°)
E107°40'(107.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 25/06 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N22°20'(22.3°)
E105°50'(105.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
0 likes   


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 112 guests