WPAC: VICENTE - Post-Tropical

[Meow]

It formed from the tail of Khanun.

[RobWESTPACWX]

GFS and NOGAPS both are being agresive with this by the end of the week developing it just east of the PI the pushing it North. When one model shows something I typical go hmm, but two. Then I start getting interested.

The euro as well but it pushes it due west.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yeah I think this is going to be the next player later this week after Khanun, given the model support, just when I'm away in Thailand too! Grrr

[dexterlabio]

I remember Euro hinted its development the other day. The latest from GFS now shows this going towards Southern Taiwan.

Looks like this is going to be a big storm, as in big in size. Really broad area covered by this disturbance...unless if another system separates from it, like how this invest was spawned from Khanun yesterday.

[Meow]

1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.0N 135.0E,  
APPROXIMATELY 555 NM NORTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE  
IMAGERY AND A 171111Z TRMM IMAGE INDICATE A POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL  
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION; HOWEVER, A  
170312Z OCEANSAT IMAGE SHOWED A BROAD, DEFINED CIRCULATION AND  
RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS  
CIRCULATION IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AS TS 08W TRACKS RAPIDLY  
POLEWARD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH  
BROAD DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL  
GUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION  
AROUND 72 TO 96 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA  
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR  
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24  
HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

just seen the latest forecast from euro and they have a small yet strengthening tropical storm between taiwan and luzon and further strengthening to a midget typhoon southeast of hong kong right up to landfall over southern china/hainan island then emerging over the gulf of tonkin and making landfall over vietnam!

[dexterlabio]

Euro 18z has it strengthening off the coast of Northern Luzon this weekend then moving towards Southern China.

[dexterlabio]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.0N
135.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 131.6E, APPROXIMATELY 540 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE SHOWS IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH A 180125Z ASCAT PASS
INDICATING WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS ALONG THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE LLCC. CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
WITH A RECENT 180124Z AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATING THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE LLCC HELPING TO VENT
THE REGION TO THE SOUTHWEST IN A MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. BASED ON FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS, OUTFLOW AND VWS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Last 12 hrs of obs, winds up to 28kts on Cheju-do.

RKPC 180900Z 08025KT 2500 RA BR SCT005 BKN025 OVC080 26/25 Q0995 NOSIG
RKPC 180800Z 10026KT 5000 RA BR SCT005 BKN025 OVC080 27/25 Q0997 WS ALL RWY NOSIG
RKPC 180736Z 11019KT 3500 RA BR SCT003 BKN025 OVC080 27/25 Q0998 WS ALL RWY NOSIG
RKPC 180725Z 10028KT 1200 R06/1600VP2000N R24/P2000N RA BR SCT003 BKN025 OVC080 27/25 Q0998 WS ALL RWY NOSIG
RKPC 180700Z 06022KT 2500 -RA BR SCT003 BKN025 OVC080 24/22 Q0999 WS ALL RWY NOSIG
RKPC 180600Z 08016KT 050V130 3000 -RA BR SCT003 BKN025 OVC080 26/25 Q1001 NOSIG
RKPC 180521Z 06015KT 2800 -RA BR SCT002 BKN020 OVC080 22/21 Q1002 NOSIG
RKPC 180500Z 06017KT 5000 -RA BR SCT005 BKN020 OVC080 23/22 Q1003 NOSIG
RKPC 180400Z 08023KT 5000 -RA BR SCT002 BKN020 OVC080 24/23 Q1004 NOSIG
RKPC 180340Z 08021KT 3500 -RA BR SCT002 BKN020 OVC080 24/23 Q1004 NOSIG
RKPC 180300Z 06014KT 1700 -RA BR SCT002 BKN020 OVC080 23/22 Q1005 NOSIG
RKPC 180240Z 06017KT 1400 R06/1700V1900U R24/1300VP2000U -RA BR SCT005 BKN020 OVC080 23/22 Q1005 NOSIG
RKPC 180200Z 05011KT 4000 -RA BR SCT005 BKN020 OVC080 24/23 Q1005 NOSIG
RKPC 180123Z 07014KT 2000 -RA BR SCT005 BKN020 OVC080 25/24 Q1005 NOSIG
RKPC 180100Z 07015KT 1200 R06/1400V1800N R24/0800V1300D -RA BR BKN002 BKN020 OVC070 23/22 Q1005 NOSIG
RKPC 180033Z 07013KT 0600 R06/1200V1400N R24/0550V0650N RA FG BKN002 BKN020 OVC070 22/21 Q1006 NOSIG
RKPC 180000Z 07014KT 1200 R06/1600VP2000U R24/0650V0800N RA BR BKN002 BKN020 OVC070 22/21 Q1006 NOSIG
RKPC 172339Z 07013KT 0800 R06/1500VP2000N R24/0550V0800D RA BR BKN002 BKN020 OVC070 22/21 Q1007 NOSIG
RKPC 172312Z 06012KT 0800 R06/1600VP2000U R24/1000V1700U +RA BR SCT005 BKN025 OVC080 22/22 Q1007 NOSIG
RKPC 172300Z 05008KT 1400 R06/1800VP2000N R24/1300V1500N RA BR SCT005 BKN025 OVC080 22/21 Q1007 NOSIG



http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/met ... met=Submit

[Typhoon Hunter]

Lol wrong thread Rob!

Models all over the place with 92W now, ECM doesn't even develop it in the latest 00z run, very little consistency there. However GFS is determined to crank this up and send it towards Taiwan.

Seems development will be slow given the broad and relatively shallow nature of the disturbance at the moment.

[dexterlabio]

i dont know,could this end up like the invest that crossed Luzon last month, predicted to be a TD at some point but never happened..... the lates ecm run messed up the picture for me, the previous 2 or 3 runs showed a decent TC from this then suddenly backed off with a bare weak low...now is just the time to sit, wait, and watch for anything that comes up.

[Meow]

The JMA has upgraded this to a tropical depression just now.



WWJP25 RJTD 181200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 181200.
...
SUMMARY.
...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 15N 130E WNW SLOWLY.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[RobWESTPACWX]

Ooops thanks James, I been sneaking on here to post while at work. Shhhh. Now a TD though, little surprise there to say the least.

[Meow]

It looks more organised.

[euro6208]

looks like shear may play a role in the future development of vicente...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Heres my video for today, at first I talk about Khanun but then get in to this TD and where it might go. [youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzAEny4Ik2M[/youtube]

[Typhoon Hunter]

GFS and ECM backing off on significant development of this system, they suggest it will stall in Bashi channel and then drift over Taiwan as an LPA.

[Meow]

Still medium.

ABPW10 PGTW 190600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZJUL2012//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190151ZJUL2012//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 190000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (KHANUN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 37.2N 127.1E, APPROXIMATELY 15 NM SOUTH OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 190300) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.6N
129.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 126.7E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING PRIMARILY OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLES. THE 19/00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG
CONVERGENT FLOW IS FUELING THIS CONVECTION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT
WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF 15N AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EAST
PHILIPPINE SEA. ALTHOUGH RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED A BROAD,
DEFINED CIRCULATION, A 190246Z TRMM 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES POORLY-
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD,
DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IN GENERAL, THE
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

GFS not as aggressive as before, i dont know but the latest run kinda shows a closed LPA w/ TC characteristics after 2 days of stalling north of PI then heads towards Taiwan. (Yeah, and I also noticed that system shown by GFS to develop near Guam. That I find more interesting if it stays consistent lol).

[Meow]

It is still a tropical depression without gale warning. Maybe it will not be Vicente.



WWJP25 RJTD 190600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 190600.
...
SUMMARY.
...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 17N 128E WNW SLOWLY.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=