WPAC: VICENTE - Post-Tropical

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Meow

#61 Postby Meow » Sun Jul 22, 2012 1:53 pm

The JMA upgraded Vicente to a severe tropical storm.

Image

STS 1208 (VICENTE)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 22 July 2012

<Analyses at 22/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°55'(18.9°)
E114°35'(114.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE330km(180NM)
NW280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 23/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°30'(20.5°)
E111°50'(111.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 24/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°20'(21.3°)
E107°55'(107.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 25/18 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N21°50'(21.8°)
E104°05'(104.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
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Meow

#62 Postby Meow » Sun Jul 22, 2012 11:45 pm

Image

STS 1208 (VICENTE)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 23 July 2012

<Analyses at 23/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N19°35'(19.6°)
E114°50'(114.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 24/03 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°25'(21.4°)
E111°30'(111.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 25/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°35'(21.6°)
E107°50'(107.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 26/00 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N21°55'(21.9°)
E103°40'(103.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
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Meow

#63 Postby Meow » Sun Jul 22, 2012 11:46 pm

The JTWC estimated Vicente will make landfall over the western Guangdong.

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (VICENTE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 19.9N 115.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 115.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 20.7N 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.6N 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 22.3N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.5N 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 22.5N 104.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 114.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z
IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//
NNNN
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#64 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Jul 22, 2012 11:55 pm

Who told Vicente he could do his own thing? Certainly wasn't me.
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Meow

#65 Postby Meow » Mon Jul 23, 2012 12:28 am

The track from the JTWC is not real at all...
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Meow

#66 Postby Meow » Mon Jul 23, 2012 1:40 am

The eye is forming.

Image
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Meow

#67 Postby Meow » Mon Jul 23, 2012 1:49 am

Image

STS 1208 (VICENTE)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 23 July 2012

<Analyses at 23/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N20°30'(20.5°)
E114°50'(114.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE440km(240NM)
NW390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 24/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N22°00'(22.0°)
E111°00'(111.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 25/06 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N22°35'(22.6°)
E106°30'(106.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
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#68 Postby phwxenthusiast » Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:20 am

upgraded to typhoon by JTWC
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Meow

#69 Postby Meow » Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:41 am

The JTWC upgraded Vicente to a category 1 typhoon.

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 09W (VICENTE) WARNING NR 011
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 09W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 20.5N 114.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 114.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 21.6N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 22.2N 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 22.6N 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.7N 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 22.4N 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 114.4E.
TYPHOON 09W (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//
NNNN
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Meow

#70 Postby Meow » Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:51 am

Vicente has an impressive eye right now.

Image
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Re: WPAC: VICENTE - Severe Tropical Storm

#71 Postby Typhoon10 » Mon Jul 23, 2012 4:12 am

HKO to raise T8 signal by 6pm local time
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#72 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon Jul 23, 2012 4:32 am

Unconfirmed reports of a 960hpa pressure would make this a typhoon in JMAs eyes, something to watch here this evening if they push it up.
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Re: WPAC: VICENTE - Severe Tropical Storm

#73 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon Jul 23, 2012 4:53 am

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Re: WPAC: VICENTE - Severe Tropical Storm

#74 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon Jul 23, 2012 5:02 am

This update was posted by Pat a few hours ago.

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2012/07/23/severe-tropical-storm-vicente-afternoon-video-update/

Lots of useful information in there.
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#75 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon Jul 23, 2012 5:19 am

95kph has been reported in Hong Kong this last hour.
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#76 Postby Chickenzilla » Mon Jul 23, 2012 5:56 am

The convection is not very strong NE of the eye at this time, but the banding is IMHO quite impressive. :darrow:
Image
Image
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#77 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon Jul 23, 2012 6:36 am

Im starting to think worst case scenario in Hong Kong this evening as winds continue to kick up to 100kph.
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#78 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon Jul 23, 2012 7:11 am

I just created an interactive live update at Western Pacific weather, I would love to ask if anyone has reports pictures, videos or just good information on the storm its effects on Hong Kong and South East China to please share here.

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/20 ... ve-update/
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#79 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon Jul 23, 2012 7:15 am

Not one to question agencies but 120kph winds being report, thats about 12 above what JMA has in the center of the storm. Granted I think this report is on top of a mountain.

http://www.hko.gov.hk/contente.htm
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Re: WPAC: VICENTE - Severe Tropical Storm

#80 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 23, 2012 7:18 am

Does anyone know if James (Typhoon Hunter) is chasing Vicente in Hong Kong?
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