WTPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 25.7N 121.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7N 121.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 27.0N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.1N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 28.7N 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 26.0N 120.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND
031500Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 11W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
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WDPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA)
WARNING NR 23//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS REGAINED SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING AS IT MOVED
OFFSHORE FROM NORTHERN TAIWAN INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT. A RADAR
REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM THE TAIWAN CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU INDICATES
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS REMAINED INTACT AND LENDS GOOD
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE WEST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER HONSHU, JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT BEFORE IT MAKES
LANDFALL NEAR FUZHOU, CHINA BEFORE TAU 12. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST TRACK.
TS SAOLA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER LAND BY TAU 36. //
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