WPAC: SAOLA - Post-Tropical

[RobWESTPACWX]

JMA still has it as a STS, I think something will change at 12UTC, they often update storms at that time for some reason.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1209l.html

[RobWESTPACWX]

Taiwan radar is starting to show a real mess heading there way. http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/radar/

[Amoygal]

It's been raining here in northern Taiwan all day, and some very heavy rain bands have been passing through Taipei this evening.

[RobWESTPACWX]

NDRRMC - Four have been confirmed dead now to do floods and rough seas in the Philippines as Saola / Gener continues to push North. Meanwhile schools and business across Manila are expected to be closed again on Tuesday. A total of eleven roads and six bridges have been closed due to damage suffered in the past several days。

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 20.6N 124.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 124.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.3N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.1N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 22.8N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 23.8N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.3N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.7N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 29.6N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 124.5E.
TYPHOON 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. //
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A RAGGED EYE AND
TIGHT CONVECTIVE BANDING INTO THE EYE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION AS THE EYE FEATURE IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 301110Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED
BY AN OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM CIMS BUT IS HIGHER THAN
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THERE IS,
HOWEVER, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
EYE FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE CYCLONE IS BETWEEN TWO
RIDGE AXES - ONE TO THE NORTH AND ONE TO THE SOUTH - IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IT IS IN A WEAK
STEERING STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A SLIGHTLY MORE PREDOMINANT
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH
TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NER.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EGRR AS THE
SOLE OUTLIER TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 48 DUE TO THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, ESPECIALLY THE ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW. BY TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO START WEAKENING AS VWS INCREASES AS THE STR TO
THE NORTHEAST BUILDS AND ASSUMES STEERING.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 10W WILL TURN WESTWARD AS THE STR
BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. DURING THIS TIME FRAME, TS
11W, CURRENTLY LOCATED 195 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN, WILL
APPROACH AT ITS CLOSEST POINT BUT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON 10W.
THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 72 AND POSSIBLE WEAK INTERACTION
WITH 11W. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK AS THE STEERING INFLUENCE TRANSITIONS TO THE STRONG STR. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

now at 4.0...


TXPQ25 KNES 300907
TCSWNP

A. 10W (SAOLA)

B. 30/0832Z

C. 20.5N

D. 124.7E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=4.5 BASED ON DG RING WITH OW EYE EMBEDDED BY MG. PT=4.0.
MET=4.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

[euro6208]

here it goes!

good night, west pacific...

[RobWESTPACWX]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CMPv81mt8Q[/youtube]

[Meow]

Still 55 knots, the same to Damrey.





STS 1209 (SAOLA)
Issued at 19:10 UTC, 30 July 2012

<Analyses at 30/18 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N20°55'(20.9°)
E124°05'(124.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL500km(270NM)

<Forecast for 31/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°50'(22.8°)
E123°30'(123.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 01/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°35'(24.6°)
E122°40'(122.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 02/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N26°50'(26.8°)
E121°05'(121.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 03/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N28°40'(28.7°)
E119°05'(119.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10km/h(6kt)
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)

<Forecast for 04/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N29°50'(29.8°)
E116°00'(116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Radius of probability circle 850km(450NM)

[Meow]

60 knots





STS 1209 (SAOLA)
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 31 July 2012

<Analyses at 31/00 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N21°00'(21.0°)
E123°35'(123.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL500km(270NM)

<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°55'(22.9°)
E123°05'(123.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 02/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°50'(24.8°)
E122°25'(122.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)

<Forecast for 03/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N27°05'(27.1°)
E120°55'(120.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N28°50'(28.8°)
E117°50'(117.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Radius of probability circle 520km(280NM)

<Forecast for 05/00 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N30°20'(30.3°)
E115°00'(115.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Radius of probability circle 850km(450NM)

[Meow]

The greatest enemy is itself.

[Typhoon Hunter]

What do you mean by that last remark Meow, you think there maybe multiple centres?

I'm in Taiwan now and will remain here to document Saola's effects. When this is all done I would not be surprised to see rainfall totals in excess of 2000mm in some place. Max so far in last 48hrs is 424mm at Taipingshan in Ilan county and it's only going to get worse!

My own personal forecast - see disclaimer at top of page. (Can't seem to copy and paste it on iPad!)

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

*added by vbhoutex*

[phwxenthusiast]

surveillance flights into Saola conducted by Taiwan at 12z today...
http://typhoon.as.ntu.edu.tw/DOTSTAR/en ... .php?id=58

[Meow]

What do you mean by that last remark Meow, you think there maybe multiple centres?

I'm in Taiwan now and will remain here to document Saola's effects. When this is all done I would not be surprised to see rainfall totals in excess of 2000mm in some place. Max so far in last 48hrs is 424mm at Taipingshan in Ilan county and it's only going to get worse!

It never formed an complete eye, so it is still a STS now.

Taipingshan is somehow the wettest mountain in Yilan County.

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 20.9N 124.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 124.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 21.3N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 22.0N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.8N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.0N 122.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.2N 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 28.7N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 29.0N 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 124.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
310000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND
010300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) THAT HAS BEEN STEERING THE SYSTEM IS NOW COMPETING WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65
KNOTS. BASED ON THE ORGANIZATION AND STRUCTURE OF THE LLCC, THE
INTENSITY WAS KEPT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THE ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 10W IS BEGINNING TO LOSE OUTFLOW SUPPORT FROM
THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL LOCATED OVER EASTERN
CHINA. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL DEFINED AND IS HELPING TO
SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 10W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS. BY
TAU 36 THE STR TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THE NER AS THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE CAUSING AN INCREASE IN TRACK SPEED. GOOD
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN COMBINATION WITH FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW A STEADY INTENSITY INCREASE TO A MAXIMUM OF 100 KNOTS BY
TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL BY
TAU 84, WITH A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER, LEADING TO
COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS REMAINS
WIDESPREAD ON THE TIMING OF THE TURN WESTWARD AND WITH THE TIMING OF
LANDFALL. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH A CLOSE TRACK
OVER TAIWAN. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE SHIFT FROM QUASI-
STATIONARY MOTION TO A TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE
STR.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

i don't understand why JTWC downgraded saola to a tropical storm...when it has a nice eye even dvorak estimates are at typhoon strength...these dvorak/cimss estimates are really biased and cause alot of confusion...


THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65
KNOTS. BASED ON THE ORGANIZATION AND STRUCTURE OF THE LLCC, THE
INTENSITY WAS KEPT ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THE ESTIMATES.


TXPQ25 KNES 310312
TCSWNP

A. 10W (SAOLA)

B. 31/0232Z

C. 20.7N

D. 124.3E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...7-8 TENTHS BANDING ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET
AND PT ARE 4.0. FT IS BASED ON MET.

[madness]

Quoting: i don't understand why JTWC downgraded saola to a tropical storm...when it has a nice eye even dvorak estimates are at typhoon strength...these dvorak/cimss estimates are really biased and cause alot of confusion...

Latest information from JMA:

STS 1209 (SAOLA)
Issued at 07:05 UTC, 31 July 2012
<Analyses at 31/06 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N21°05'(21.1°) E123°40'(123.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL750km(400NM)

The 30kt winds diameter is now 1,500km - that is it increased by 50% in the last 12 hours
This explains why the eye has not developed and the wind speed at the centre has not increased.
It also means an enormous amount of rain is going to affect Taiwan and go into China when landfall occurs later this week

[RobWESTPACWX]

Taiwan is really seeing some heavy bands move on shore this afternoon.

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/radar/

NDRRMC- Death toll in the Philippines climbs to seven now. Sadly one being a 10 year old child who drowned while swimming with his family. Five of the deaths were due to drownings one due to electrocution in Cavite and another due to a falling cocunut tree.

Meanwhile two people have also been injured due to rock slides and eight fishermen and passengers aboard a Banca were rescued Monday as seas kicked up. Classes are still suspened across much of Luzon as recovery continues even with yet more rain impacting the area. The next update will be at 0900UTC.

This was taken from

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/20 ... pre-gener/

[RobWESTPACWX]

JMAs pressure is now at 970hpa. Do not be surprised when this drops down to 969hpa that we have a typhoon.

[euro6208]

back to minimal typhoon strength of 65 knots! although saola looks a bit stronger

WTPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 10W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 21.8N 124.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 124.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 22.8N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 23.7N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.8N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.1N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.0N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 29.0N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 124.0E.
TYPHOON 10W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTHEAST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 31 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 11W (DAMREY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN