ATL: INVEST 98L

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201207241720
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2012, DB, O, 2012072418, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982012
AL, 98, 2012072406, , BEST, 0, 350N, 560W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2012072412, , BEST, 0, 355N, 555W, 35, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2012072418, , BEST, 0, 360N, 550W, 35, 1007, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest


Thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113155&p=2240687#p2240687

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This one has a decent shot at becoming Ernesto.

[Aric Dunn]

not surprising. its rather impressive considering its short lifetime thus far.

[RL3AO]

What? A hybrid system in the central Atlantic? Shocked. Shocked I tell ya! What will you tell me next? That it will go straight to a storm skipping the depression stage?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Code Orange at 2PM EDT I think.

[Aric Dunn]

floater is up

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[Chickenzilla]

Nice! An invest quite far north!

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS IT
GRADUALLY LOSES FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS
AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Aric Dunn]

Thats a very vigorous circ and clearly convection build around the center. although not and "eye" its apparent where the center is. likely going to be ernesto in the morning ( or later tonight if it keeps up )

[AnnularCane]

I'd be more excited if I thought it might last longer than a day. Unless it turns out to be another Chris.

[cycloneye]

An eyewall trying to form?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The National Hurricane Center should go ahead and classify this storm. It's obvious it already has a closed circulation and has maintained convection all day. You can see in the image below that 98L isn't connected to the front anymore either.

[Zanthe]

...
Another hybrid system?

[wxman57]

Doesn't look like it'll last as long as Chris. Should be absorbed by a big upper low dropping southeast of Nova Scotia/Newfoundland late tomorrow.

[ozonepete]

I agree, wxman, that it won't last as long as Chris. But fascinating that we have another high latitude, early season fast-developer. Dr. Masters wrote an article on how this may become fairly common with more commonly occurring above normal SSTs in the Atlantic earlier in the season.

[RL3AO]

Doesn't look like it'll last as long as Chris. Should be absorbed by a big upper low dropping southeast of Nova Scotia/Newfoundland late tomorrow.

You're hoping so at least. Your no Ernesto until August prediction was looking pretty good.

[wxman57]

Doesn't look like it'll last as long as Chris. Should be absorbed by a big upper low dropping southeast of Nova Scotia/Newfoundland late tomorrow.

You're hoping so at least. Your no Ernesto until August prediction was looking pretty good.

August 8th. Perhaps I should qualify that with "south of 35N"?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Doesn't look like it'll last as long as Chris. Should be absorbed by a big upper low dropping southeast of Nova Scotia/Newfoundland late tomorrow.

You're hoping so at least. Your no Ernesto until August prediction was looking pretty good.

August 8th. Perhaps I should qualify that with "south of 35N"?

Still saying we'll get less than 10 named storms?

[wxman57]

Still saying we'll get less than 10 named storms?

That's what my office hurricane pool number says - 9. I'm sticking with it right up to when #10 forms.

[RL3AO]

That's what my office hurricane pool number says - 9. I'm sticking with it right up to when #10 forms.

Might have been better off saying 5 or less or tropical orgin.