ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[RL3AO]

114330 1919N 09327W 8429 01503 0039 +145 +089 110036 040 039 006 00
114400 1918N 09329W 8430 01500 0036 +146 +087 111035 036 039 007 00
114430 1916N 09330W 8430 01500 0031 +155 +086 111037 039 039 003 00
114500 1915N 09331W 8429 01501 0030 +159 +085 114042 044 038 002 00
114530 1914N 09332W 8429 01501 0027 +164 +086 121042 045 037 003 00
114600 1912N 09333W 8430 01499 0022 +166 +088 125039 040 035 004 00
114630 1911N 09334W 8429 01498 0020 +165 +092 121040 041 038 002 00
114700 1910N 09336W 8430 01494 0020 +165 +095 121043 044 038 003 00
114730 1909N 09337W 8433 01490 0016 +165 +098 121045 045 040 004 00
114800 1907N 09338W 8429 01490 0013 +165 +100 118045 045 041 002 00
114830 1906N 09339W 8430 01489 0012 +165 +102 116046 046 040 002 00
114900 1905N 09340W 8432 01486 0009 +167 +104 116045 046 042 002 00
114930 1903N 09342W 8428 01487 0008 +165 +106 115046 047 042 001 00
115000 1902N 09343W 8432 01482 0007 +165 +108 116048 049 042 001 00
115030 1901N 09344W 8429 01482 0002 +166 +109 114048 049 043 003 00
115100 1900N 09345W 8430 01478 9998 +169 +110 113047 048 044 003 00
115130 1858N 09346W 8429 01479 9998 +165 +111 114049 049 044 003 00
115200 1857N 09348W 8429 01478 9999 +163 +112 115050 050 044 004 00
115230 1856N 09349W 8432 01472 9999 +155 +112 113051 052 043 003 00
115300 1854N 09350W 8427 01476 9999 +152 +111 112050 051 042 004 00

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
700 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2012

...ERNESTO ABOUT TO CROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR COATZACOALCOS...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 94.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA
* EAST OF CHILITEPEC TO CAMPECHE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER LAND WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SINCE ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER LAND
SHORTLY...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...TABASCO...PUEBLA...AND
OAXACA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ERNESTO
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 091202
AF302 1205A ERNESTO HDOB 20 20120809
115330 1853N 09351W 8431 01469 9991 +160 +109 114049 050 044 003 00
115400 1852N 09352W 8430 01467 9988 +164 +107 116048 049 045 004 00
115430 1850N 09353W 8428 01467 9985 +166 +106 113045 048 044 004 00
115500 1849N 09355W 8441 01454 9981 +167 +107 111045 049 047 003 00
115530 1848N 09356W 8419 01476 9982 +165 +109 108046 049 047 003 00
115600 1846N 09357W 8433 01455 9976 +168 +110 106044 045 046 003 00
115630 1845N 09358W 8425 01461 9974 +165 +112 102046 047 046 004 00
115700 1844N 09400W 8432 01451 9970 +165 +113 099045 046 047 002 00
115730 1842N 09401W 8426 01455 9969 +164 +113 095044 046 047 003 03
115800 1841N 09402W 8431 01450 9966 +167 +113 089042 044 046 003 00
115830 1839N 09402W 8430 01444 9959 +168 +114 085041 042 046 003 00
115900 1837N 09403W 8434 01433 9949 +171 +115 075040 041 044 005 00
115930 1836N 09404W 8430 01430 9943 +174 +116 064040 041 043 003 00
120000 1834N 09404W 8421 01444 9936 +188 +118 060039 041 044 004 00
120030 1832N 09404W 8435 01428 9933 +192 +121 059034 038 043 004 03
120100 1830N 09404W 8422 01439 9928 +194 +125 064029 032 039 004 00
120130 1829N 09404W 8432 01428 9928 +195 +130 062028 029 037 002 00
120200 1827N 09403W 8428 01430 9925 +191 +133 062028 029 033 002 00
120230 1826N 09402W 8429 01426 9923 +189 +137 060026 028 029 002 00
120300 1824N 09402W 8436 01419 9921 +191 +139 064023 025 024 003 00
$$

Pressure is down but so are the winds.

[RL3AO]

Center near or just off the coast.

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 091212
AF302 1205A ERNESTO HDOB 21 20120809
120330 1822N 09401W 8427 01425 9918 +190 +140 064024 024 021 003 00
120400 1821N 09400W 8432 01419 9915 +194 +142 061021 023 020 002 00
120430 1819N 09400W 8429 01417 9909 +200 +143 053018 019 024 001 00
120500 1818N 09359W 8428 01415 9900 +207 +145 046020 022 026 002 00
120530 1817N 09358W 8437 01399 9898 +193 +147 048014 022 028 006 03
120600 1815N 09356W 8425 01403 9891 +197 +148 041004 011 /// /// 03
120630 1814N 09356W 8428 01411 9913 +168 +149 268018 023 /// /// 03
120700 1812N 09356W 8437 01400 9919 +162 +147 267023 023 /// /// 03
120730 1812N 09358W 8417 01423 9920 +165 +143 284021 023 /// /// 03
120800 1813N 09358W 8422 01421 9913 +184 +139 312021 023 /// /// 03
120830 1815N 09358W 8438 01398 9904 +187 +137 338019 023 /// /// 03
120900 1816N 09358W 8429 01402 9891 +201 +138 044013 017 025 002 03
120930 1818N 09358W 8425 01411 9889 +211 +139 074025 028 026 001 00
121000 1819N 09358W 8430 01406 9893 +207 +142 081026 026 027 003 00
121030 1821N 09358W 8429 01399 9891 +195 +145 085025 026 027 003 00
121100 1823N 09358W 8429 01399 9893 +190 +148 085027 027 025 004 00
121130 1824N 09358W 8430 01395 9891 +185 +149 088029 030 026 002 03
121200 1826N 09358W 8429 01393 9888 +183 +150 094029 030 032 005 00
121230 1828N 09358W 8430 01397 9893 +185 +149 092029 030 039 004 00
121300 1829N 09358W 8432 01399 9899 +181 +148 092029 030 041 005 00

Pressure around 989

[brunota2003]

Looks like the strongest winds are on the coastline, the deepest convection is rotating on the coast, and that is where they found the 80s at flight level yesterday.

[RL3AO]

Appears to have made landfall

[RL3AO]

Appears that we have landfall.

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 091222
AF302 1205A ERNESTO HDOB 22 20120809
121330 1831N 09358W 8429 01403 9903 +180 +147 091028 029 044 003 00
121400 1833N 09358W 8425 01410 9905 +180 +147 093032 034 046 003 00
121430 1834N 09358W 8434 01405 9915 +172 +146 100038 042 046 003 00
121500 1834N 09358W 8434 01405 9936 +169 +144 104044 044 047 003 00
121530 1838N 09358W 8426 01450 9960 +163 +142 109051 054 047 003 00
121600 1839N 09358W 8431 01450 9968 +161 +139 110053 054 049 005 00
121630 1841N 09358W 8431 01454 9973 +161 +135 109053 054 050 004 00
121700 1843N 09358W 8437 01450 9975 +164 +132 111052 054 049 002 00
121730 1845N 09358W 8429 01465 9979 +165 +129 111051 051 049 002 00
121800 1846N 09358W 8432 01465 9983 +166 +128 108052 053 046 004 00
121830 1848N 09358W 8430 01469 9986 +168 +127 111052 053 045 003 00
121900 1850N 09358W 8430 01472 9988 +170 +128 110051 052 044 003 00
121930 1852N 09357W 8428 01477 9989 +170 +129 110051 053 043 003 00
122000 1853N 09357W 8430 01476 9991 +174 +130 113050 050 045 003 00
122030 1855N 09357W 8430 01481 9999 +166 +131 111050 051 043 001 00
122100 1857N 09357W 8431 01479 0002 +165 +132 109049 051 044 002 00
122130 1859N 09357W 8430 01484 0005 +165 +132 110048 048 042 003 00
122200 1901N 09357W 8430 01487 0008 +165 +131 109049 051 043 002 00
122230 1902N 09357W 8431 01487 0010 +165 +131 108052 053 041 003 00
122300 1904N 09357W 8429 01490 0012 +165 +131 106052 053 041 004 00
$$
;

[brunota2003]

Hope they go westward toward the deeper convection that is still off the coast, get some good measurements

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 091224
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 09/12:06:10Z
B. 18 deg 15 min N
093 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 1329 m
D. 50 kt
E. 030 deg 94 nm
F. 101 deg 62 kt
G. 030 deg 94 nm
H. EXTRAP 989 mb
I. 16 C / 1535 m
J. 21 C / 1528 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. OPEN SW
M. E24/34/18
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1205A ERNESTO OB 08
MAX FL WIND 62 KT NE QUAD 11:36:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
;

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091232
AF302 1205A ERNESTO HDOB 23 20120809
122330 1906N 09357W 8429 01493 0012 +166 +130 106049 051 042 003 00
122400 1907N 09357W 8429 01494 0011 +170 +129 107049 050 042 002 00
122430 1909N 09357W 8428 01497 0015 +169 +129 106049 050 041 002 00
122500 1911N 09357W 8429 01497 0015 +170 +130 107048 050 040 003 00
122530 1913N 09357W 8430 01498 0018 +168 +131 107046 047 040 001 00
122600 1914N 09357W 8428 01500 0021 +165 +132 107047 047 039 003 00
122630 1916N 09357W 8429 01501 0024 +165 +133 109047 047 039 004 00
122700 1918N 09357W 8433 01499 0025 +165 +133 109047 047 037 003 00
122730 1920N 09357W 8429 01505 0026 +164 +133 110047 048 037 003 00
122800 1921N 09357W 8429 01504 0028 +163 +133 110047 048 037 003 00
122830 1923N 09357W 8432 01501 0030 +160 +133 110049 050 035 005 00
122900 1925N 09357W 8428 01506 0031 +158 +132 110046 049 038 004 00
122930 1927N 09357W 8430 01505 0038 +149 +131 110043 046 038 004 00
123000 1928N 09357W 8428 01509 0033 +159 +128 109040 042 037 006 00
123030 1930N 09357W 8433 01505 0033 +162 +125 107041 043 037 005 00
123100 1932N 09357W 8424 01516 0046 +145 +123 109046 047 038 014 00
123130 1933N 09357W 8433 01510 0054 +136 +121 106052 054 047 017 00
123200 1935N 09357W 8428 01516 0056 +137 +117 107054 056 046 024 00
123230 1937N 09357W 8418 01531 0054 +143 +114 106051 054 050 021 03
123300 1939N 09357W 8450 01499 0054 +153 +113 099056 057 042 024 00
$$
;

[RL3AO]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091242
AF302 1205A ERNESTO HDOB 24 20120809
123330 1940N 09357W 8425 01522 0054 +150 +112 100058 059 040 013 00
123400 1942N 09357W 8429 01521 0057 +148 +111 101056 058 043 012 00
123430 1944N 09357W 8431 01522 0049 +166 +110 100056 057 040 009 00
123500 1945N 09357W 8430 01525 0057 +157 +109 100057 058 041 008 00
123530 1947N 09357W 8429 01526 0053 +164 +109 100057 058 041 012 00
123600 1949N 09357W 8432 01520 0065 +140 +108 104054 058 047 016 00
123630 1950N 09357W 8431 01527 0065 +147 +107 101055 056 047 015 00
123700 1952N 09357W 8416 01540 0066 +142 +106 099054 062 044 022 00
123730 1954N 09357W 8409 01553 0071 +148 +107 091051 056 040 009 00
123800 1955N 09357W 8433 01529 0059 +168 +110 095057 059 036 006 00
123830 1957N 09357W 8429 01536 0057 +174 +112 095054 055 036 003 00
123900 1959N 09357W 8429 01537 0057 +175 +116 094052 053 037 003 00
123930 2000N 09357W 8430 01536 0059 +173 +121 095053 053 035 002 00
124000 2002N 09357W 8430 01537 0061 +171 +125 095053 054 037 005 03
124030 2003N 09357W 8420 01547 0072 +151 +130 096052 055 /// /// 03
124100 2003N 09359W 8436 01531 0064 +163 +132 092051 054 /// /// 03
124130 2002N 09400W 8438 01528 0058 +174 +133 093051 051 033 004 00
124200 2000N 09401W 8429 01538 0056 +178 +133 090050 051 037 003 00
124230 1959N 09402W 8429 01537 0057 +173 +135 088050 051 038 002 00
124300 1957N 09404W 8432 01533 0057 +170 +137 090051 052 039 002 00
$$
;

[RL3AO]

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 091241
XXAA 59138 99196 70939 04693 99004 26815 08535 00034 26419 08042
92719 22012 09555 85452 16837 09555 88999 77999
31313 09608 81233
61616 AF302 1205A ERNESTO OB 11
62626 SPL 1965N09398W 1235 MBL WND 09051 AEV 20802 DLM WND 09554
003845 WL150 08545 084 REL 1964N09395W 123259 SPG 1964N09398W 123
518 =
XXBB 59138 99196 70939 04693 00004 26815 11858 19031 22850 16837
33845 /////
21212 00004 08535 11996 08045 22958 09556 33857 09555 44845 10054
31313 09608 81233
61616 AF302 1205A ERNESTO OB 11
62626 SPL 1965N09398W 1235 MBL WND 09051 AEV 20802 DLM WND 09554
003845 WL150 08545 084 REL 1964N09395W 123259 SPG 1964N09398W 123
518 =

1004 mbs/35 kts

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 091252
AF302 1205A ERNESTO HDOB 25 20120809
124330 1956N 09405W 8429 01536 0057 +168 +139 089052 053 038 002 00
124400 1954N 09407W 8430 01533 0059 +165 +140 086053 054 039 003 00
124430 1953N 09408W 8416 01546 0061 +159 +141 076053 055 048 011 00
124500 1952N 09409W 8442 01516 0070 +142 +141 097050 052 049 014 00
124530 1950N 09411W 8427 01528 0063 +145 +138 099050 052 045 015 00
124600 1950N 09411W 8427 01528 0069 +133 +132 099053 054 048 023 00
124630 1948N 09413W 8422 01532 0071 +130 +126 096051 053 048 023 00
124700 1946N 09415W 8429 01525 0068 +136 +121 095049 050 045 020 00
124730 1945N 09416W 8430 01520 0068 +133 +116 093052 052 046 019 00
124800 1943N 09417W 8433 01517 0063 +136 +113 093050 053 047 019 00
124830 1942N 09419W 8434 01515 0063 +134 +110 088052 054 046 014 00
124900 1941N 09420W 8428 01522 0054 +152 +109 086054 055 044 014 00
124930 1939N 09422W 8424 01527 0055 +151 +109 090047 054 046 009 00
125000 1938N 09423W 8426 01522 0053 +151 +110 086043 045 044 015 00
125030 1936N 09424W 8434 01512 0044 +165 +112 084046 047 039 007 00
125100 1935N 09426W 8428 01518 0046 +159 +114 086048 050 037 006 00
125130 1934N 09427W 8432 01514 0046 +157 +116 085048 050 036 006 00
125200 1932N 09429W 8429 01516 0039 +168 +118 083047 048 036 005 00
125230 1931N 09430W 8428 01516 0037 +169 +120 082046 047 035 003 00
125300 1929N 09431W 8426 01518 0037 +167 +123 083046 046 035 003 00
$$
;

[tolakram]

Latest

[RL3AO]

[Blinhart]

So what will Ernie's name be if he makes it to the Pacific and re-intensifies into a TC? What are the odds of that happening?