ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane Alexis]

12z NOGAPS not showing anything...I know it's the NOGAPS

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[Weatherfreak000]

I'm with EURO. Circulation looks decent but without question a slow developer...I wouldn't even doubt it not surviving, and given El Nino like conditions I just am uncertain so early in the game. I just feel like quick development seems suspect.

[yankeeslover]

kind of worried..new to all this... but, I have flight plans from Upstate NY to Orlando on the morning of 8/10(friday) I know its early, but should I start to get alittle worried yet? my dates are firm..this is the first time I have planned a vacation to the SE this time of year, and first time flying in years.. i have no idea how these storms effect flight plans and airports in orlando??

[cycloneye]

kind of worried..new to all this... but, I have flight plans from Upstate NY to Orlando on the morning of 8/10(friday) I know its early, but should I start to get alittle worried yet? my dates are firm..this is the first time I have planned a vacation to the SE this time of year, and first time flying in years.. i have no idea how these storms effect flight plans and airports in orlando??

First,welcome to Storm2k. As you said, is early to say if this would track to where you are as many factors can influence the track and intensity between now and the 10th. The best thing for you to do for now is to visit this thread when you can to see the latest information about this system.

[wxman57]

kind of worried..new to all this... but, I have flight plans from Upstate NY to Orlando on the morning of 8/10(friday) I know its early, but should I start to get a little worried yet? my dates are firm..this is the first time I have planned a vacation to the SE this time of year, and first time flying in years.. i have no idea how these storms effect flight plans and airports in orlando??

Agree, quite early to be concerned 11 days out. Given the time of year, there is always going to be SOMETHING out in the tropics that could affect Florida. Airports would not be closing unless tropical storm conditions are bearing down on the airport. Odds are quite good that your vacation will likely be fine with no tropical impact. Check back here a few days before you leave and we can give you an update.

Oh, and welcome to the forum.

[cycloneye]

Those who may wonder if systems have developed in a low latitude position in the ITCZ where 99L is and the answer is yes. A very good example is Hurricane Ivan in 2004. Not that 99L will track the same way,but only showing that development can occur on the position it is at this time.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS drives a storm into the central Caribbean and goes poof. Not sure why the model run is way south compared to most of the ensembles?
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[Gustywind]

Interresting discussion...

Hurricane Season

Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

Jul 30, 2012 5:33 pm ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... index.html

ATLANTIC


- Farther out in the Atlantic, a portion of the "monsoon trough" continues to show rotation and organization, though it has been slow to consolidate deep, persistent convection. This system has the potential to gain sufficient structure to become a tropical cyclone during the next few days, as it traverses the Atlantic far enough south to avoid the most hostile atmospheric conditions and moves on a track far enough away from the equator for it to spin up. It is headed toward the Lesser Antilles by the end of the week or first part of the weekend.

[caribsue]

Been away from the Barbados for 18 months in the cold north (too long) Hmmmmz.... will have to keep an eye on this one as it is carnival weekend in Barbados.

[Gustywind]

Been away from the Barbados for 18 months in the cold north (too long) Hmmmmz.... will have to keep an eye on this one as it is carnival weekend in Barbados.

hi my friend glad to see you there! Oh yeah Carnival fever in Barbados is always a feeling hot. Yeah we should keep an eye on 99L as the first predictions tend to show the apparition of a tropical system maybe heading for the Lesser Antilles. Let's wait and see for now .

[IreneSurvivor47]

Magenta, right where it should be...Code orange perhaps?

[CrazyC83]

Is it just me, or does that look like an Irene redux?

[CrazyC83]

I'd say 30% at next update - low-end orange.

[cycloneye]

Remains at 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Aric Dunn]

not surprised. its still attached to ITCZ/ monsoon trough until it starts pulling away they wont increase chances or upgrade of course. however it has a good chance over all to develop.

[AdamFirst]

Figures the first action of the season would develop as soon as I go on vacation. Will be in the middle of nowhere Maine for two weeks.

Thankfully the middle of nowhere has 3G coverage so, if this does bomb out, I can check my cellphone and keep track of it.

[Gustywind]

A long paragraph about 99L...

000
AXNT20 KNHC 302351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012


TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N36W TO A 1009 MB LOW AT 9N36W. THE
WAVE/LOW IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS FAIRLY LOW
AMPLITUDE WITH A WEAK SIGNAL IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER.
HOWEVER...AN ANALYSIS OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER SHOWS A CLEARING
IN THE WIDESPREAD DUST NEAR THE WAVE AXIS INDICATING ITS
PRESENCE. THE SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND HAS BEEN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE LOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE SYSTEM
WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 35W-41W.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 99, 2012073100, , BEST, 0, 89N, 366W, 20, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 310032
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0032 UTC TUE JUL 31 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992012) 20120731 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120731  0000   120731  1200   120801  0000   120801  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     8.9N  36.6W    9.5N  39.9W   10.0N  43.3W   10.1N  47.0W
BAMD     8.9N  36.6W    9.1N  38.6W    9.6N  40.6W   10.1N  42.5W
BAMM     8.9N  36.6W    9.4N  38.8W   10.0N  41.2W   10.6N  43.5W
LBAR     8.9N  36.6W    9.1N  38.7W    9.6N  41.3W    9.9N  44.0W
SHIP        20KTS          24KTS          30KTS          40KTS
DSHP        20KTS          24KTS          30KTS          40KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120802  0000   120803  0000   120804  0000   120805  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.7N  50.4W    8.9N  56.6W    8.2N  62.2W    8.5N  66.9W
BAMD    10.6N  44.5W   11.5N  48.3W   13.1N  52.7W   15.4N  58.0W
BAMM    11.1N  45.8W   11.9N  50.3W   12.9N  55.1W   14.0N  60.4W
LBAR    10.1N  46.6W   10.2N  51.8W   10.6N  56.4W   12.7N  59.2W
SHIP        47KTS          60KTS          66KTS          66KTS
DSHP        47KTS          60KTS          66KTS          66KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   8.9N LONCUR =  36.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   8KT
LATM12 =   8.7N LONM12 =  35.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =   3KT
LATM24 =   8.7N LONM24 =  34.7W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[cycloneye]

Slowly comming together.