ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

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ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 30, 2012 12:57 am


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al992012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201207301243
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2012, DB, O, 2012073006, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992012
AL, 99, 2012072912, , BEST, 0, 87N, 341W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2012072918, , BEST, 0, 87N, 344W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2012073000, , BEST, 0, 87N, 347W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2012073006, , BEST, 0, 87N, 351W, 20, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2012073012, , BEST, 0, 87N, 355W, 20, 1010, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

Thread that was the topic for this area of interest at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113166&hilit=&start=0

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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ATL: ERNESTO - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 30, 2012 1:18 am

First model plots.

Code: Select all

487
WHXX01 KWBC 300600
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0600 UTC MON JUL 30 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992012) 20120730 0600 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120730  0600   120730  1800   120731  0600   120731  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.7N  34.3W   10.0N  37.4W   10.5N  40.8W   10.7N  44.2W
BAMD     9.7N  34.3W   10.0N  36.4W   10.2N  38.7W   10.6N  41.0W
BAMM     9.7N  34.3W   10.0N  36.6W   10.3N  39.0W   10.7N  41.6W
LBAR     9.7N  34.3W    9.9N  36.8W   10.1N  39.6W   10.4N  42.6W
SHIP        20KTS          21KTS          25KTS          29KTS
DSHP        20KTS          21KTS          25KTS          29KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120801  0600   120802  0600   120803  0600   120804  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.8N  47.8W   11.0N  54.8W   11.7N  61.4W   13.1N  68.3W
BAMD    11.1N  43.3W   11.9N  47.8W   12.9N  52.3W   14.7N  56.8W
BAMM    11.0N  44.1W   11.4N  49.0W   12.0N  53.9W   12.7N  58.8W
LBAR    10.7N  45.7W   10.9N  51.3W   10.5N  56.0W   11.2N  56.7W
SHIP        34KTS          44KTS          54KTS          60KTS
DSHP        34KTS          44KTS          54KTS          60KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.7N LONCUR =  34.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =   9.5N LONM12 =  31.7W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =   9.4N LONM24 =  29.1W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L

#3 Postby Fego » Mon Jul 30, 2012 1:33 am

After the Dodgers sweep my Giants, finally a good news.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L

#4 Postby Fego » Mon Jul 30, 2012 1:44 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#5 Postby GCANE » Mon Jul 30, 2012 5:17 am

Pretty impressive that GFS is developing this as a deep warm-core

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... phase2.png
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#6 Postby Nimbus » Mon Jul 30, 2012 5:18 am

The environment is more moist down at the low latitudes near the ITCZ so this will be an interesting area to watch. Didn't look like a fish even a couple days ago so I guess the best scenario is the weak and west track of the BAMShallow. That would expose it to higher shear off SA. Wonder what kind of 57 sauce we are going to get on this one?
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#7 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 30, 2012 6:12 am

I give it a good 36-48 hrs if not closer to 60 hrs before we see it become a TD.
If it tracks across the lower half of the Caribbean chances of it surviving the graveyard are not good, the central Caribbean has had consistently bad UL environment during the past few weeks, and they usually do not change that quick.
But before that, this looks to give the Islands a good threat for at least a Tropical Storm to affect them by sometime this weekend.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L

#8 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 30, 2012 6:49 am

Remains at 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS PRODUCING
AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#9 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 30, 2012 7:22 am

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#10 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jul 30, 2012 7:31 am

Man keeping up with the tropical wave thread is starting to become a pain. :lol:
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Re:

#11 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 30, 2012 7:33 am

RL3AO wrote:Man keeping up with the tropical wave thread is starting to become a pain. :lol:


Now with the new thing about the pouches. :)
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#12 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jul 30, 2012 7:42 am

I'll update it when I get back home. Problem is all those waves in the EPac that keep popping up even though NHC keeps tracking the Atlantic ones into the Yucatan/Bahamas/Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L

#13 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 30, 2012 7:49 am

12z Best Track

AL, 99, 2012073012, , BEST, 0, 87N, 355W, 20, 1010, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#14 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 30, 2012 7:53 am

The 12z model suite makes it a hurricane.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 301245
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 UTC MON JUL 30 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992012) 20120730 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120730  1200   120731  0000   120731  1200   120801  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     8.7N  35.5W    8.9N  38.5W    9.0N  41.7W    8.9N  44.8W
BAMD     8.7N  35.5W    8.8N  37.3W    8.9N  39.2W    9.2N  41.1W
BAMM     8.7N  35.5W    9.0N  37.5W    9.2N  39.7W    9.5N  41.8W
LBAR     8.7N  35.5W    8.8N  37.0W    8.9N  39.1W    9.2N  41.4W
SHIP        20KTS          21KTS          26KTS          33KTS
DSHP        20KTS          21KTS          26KTS          33KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120801  1200   120802  1200   120803  1200   120804  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     8.7N  47.9W    7.7N  52.8W    7.1N  56.5W    7.6N  58.9W
BAMD     9.5N  43.1W   10.1N  46.8W   11.2N  51.0W   13.3N  56.1W
BAMM     9.8N  44.0W   10.5N  47.9W   11.4N  52.0W   13.3N  57.0W
LBAR     9.3N  43.9W    9.5N  48.8W    9.9N  53.4W   12.0N  57.9W
SHIP        43KTS          63KTS          73KTS          75KTS
DSHP        43KTS          63KTS          73KTS          75KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   8.7N LONCUR =  35.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =   8.7N LONM12 =  34.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =   3KT
LATM24 =   8.7N LONM24 =  34.1W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

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#15 Postby Gustywind » Mon Jul 30, 2012 8:09 am

:uarrow:
:eek: 75kts before the 60W? on this run! Looks like islands between Martinica and Barbuda are on the possible path of 99L even if we're far away from the reality and that's the good news :).
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#16 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 30, 2012 8:15 am

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Definitely has a chance of development given the model support though it will be a gradual process as the system is quite disorganized. Moisture envelope looks good. The only thing I am wondering about is how that ULL off to the NNW of the system is going to impact 99L (if at all)? The ULL is dropping SW. I wonder if that is why some of the models like the GFDL and HWRF show some development over the next 3-4 days but then weaken the system as it approaches the Leewards? It looks like either that or there may be some moderate shear it will encounter once it gets closer to the islands and I still think it is going to encounter some lingering SAL and dry air on its journey west, so conditions shouldn't be ideal for this system anytime soon. Either way looks like the Cape Verde season has commenced folks.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#17 Postby Blown Away » Mon Jul 30, 2012 8:16 am

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#18 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 30, 2012 8:27 am

The 00Z Experimental FIM global model develops this system all the way until the Eastern Caribbean and has it going into the general direction of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola where it weakens:

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=fim:&runTime=2012073000&plotName=wind_10m&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244&wjet=1
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#19 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jul 30, 2012 8:29 am

Yeah I think the islands need to pay close attention to this one. I don't see how it turns northward though given the huge ridge in place...this seems like a classic straight shooter setup...
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Re:

#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 30, 2012 8:45 am

RL3AO wrote:I'll update it when I get back home. Problem is all those waves in the EPac that keep popping up even though NHC keeps tracking the Atlantic ones into the Yucatan/Bahamas/Florida.


How is that a problem?
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