ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[leanne_uk]

I have to admit that seeing the name Ivan has sent shivers down my spine. I am not for one second suggesting this possible storm will be anything along them lines but with my mother in law being at the house in Grenada till the middle of September I am keeping an extra close eye on any possible development of this system esp with it sitting so low at the moment

[cycloneye]

This discussion is by Rob of Crown Weather:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

By Rob Lightbown


Now, I am closely watching an area of disturbed weather, designated Invest 99L by the National Hurricane Center, located about 900 miles to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite imagery this afternoon showed some fairly disorganized shower/thunderstorm activity, however, it seems that the convection is very slowly increasing and this is a system that will need to be watched over the next few days. Why is that? Because wind shear values are forecast to remain light enough and the atmosphere is forecast to be moist enough to allow for development to occur. Additionally, the track of Invest 99L potentially brings it into the southern Leeward Islands and the northern Windward Islands, as well as across Barbados by very late Friday or during Saturday.

The latest model guidance points to a slightly north of due west track this week with the GFS model forecasting modest intensification to perhaps a tropical storm while the European model forecasts very little development. The Canadian model seems to be the most aggressive forecasting 99L to intensify into a hurricane by Thursday into Friday and turn northwestward raking much of the Leeward Islands with hurricane conditions by Friday night and Saturday and then tracking towards the southeastern Bahamas by Sunday.

It is of my opinion that the Canadian model is too aggressive with the intensification while the European model is not aggressive enough given the favorable environmental conditions ahead of 99L over the next few days. My thinking right now is for slow development and intensification to Tropical Storm strength by as early as Friday. I do think that the southern Leeward Islands, the northern Windward Islands and Barbados will be first-in-line for future Tropical Storm Ernesto with tropical storm conditions possible as early as Friday afternoon across these areas.

Now, beyond the Leeward and Windward Islands, I think that the ridge of high pressure will be strong enough to keep Ernesto to be on a west-northwest track into the Caribbean by Sunday and Monday. Should the European model be correct and this system does not develop at all, then a eventual track into Central America could occur in about 10 days from now. Now, if Invest 99L does develop slowly and steadily, then a more northwesterly track towards Puerto Rico, Haiti and the Dominican Republic could materialize by next week.

So, as I have already mentioned, I think a slow, but steady intensification seems most probable with 99L possibly becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday or early Thursday and then possibly a tropical storm by Friday with tropical storm conditions possible across Barbados, the southern Leeward Islands and the Windward Islands as early as Friday afternoon.

Needless to say, I am monitoring Invest 99L very closely and I will keep you all updated on the latest."

[bayoubebe]

[quote="wxman57
I guess the real question is, will anything be left of it by then and will shear be a limiting factor by that time?

Presently, I'd give it a 50-60% shot at being a TS when it reaches the eastern Caribbean Saturday afternoon/evening(ish). Currently, it's a fairly low amplitude wave and it really doesn't stand out well on the MIMIC-TPW loop, but it does have a nice circulation on visible imagery (though convection is weak).

Can't determine for sure if it might survive and make it to the Gulf or be picked up by the trof along/off the East U.S. Coast eventually. Perhaps I can get one more Friday off this week, maybe.

IF it makes it to the Gulf, can you give me an estimated time frame when you think what days that would be?
Have plans coming up along the gulf, starting Sunday, and into next week,wondering if the weather will be okay.
Thanks!

[mcheer23]

I would say about 9-10 days before its in the gulf, if it makes it there

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

edit by tolakram, added disclaimer

[FireBird]

Those who may wonder if systems have developed in a low latitude position in the ITCZ where 99L is and the answer is yes. A very good example is Hurricane Ivan in 2004. Not that 99L will track the same way,but only showing that development can occur on the position it is at this time.

Hi Cycloneye, thanks for sharing this track history. Though statistics for development at the lower latitudes like mine are low, I always tell folks that it takes just one.... After all, we're just observers. We're definitely not the ones running the TC show.

[Sanibel]

Came in to note this wave but I see it is already an invest.

[JonathanBelles]

My current thoughts on 99L are leaning toward cyclogenesis by mid-late week with a forecast scratching of the name list. Conditions are too good to prohibit development unless our friend SAL gets a bit farther south. Conditions aloft may get in the way by the end of the week for Ernesto...

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... e-ernesto/

[Cyclenall]

I won't be interested until it becomes a hurricane. If its going to be one of those weak TS that die near the Caribbean than I'll go back to sleep about now . I have trouble reading this one but there is potential since its soon early August and its latitude. The two questions I have for 99L is 1. Will it finally miss those annoying Hispaniola islands and 2. How large or small will it become? A question in general is how many days before a possible recon mission which hasn't been asked yet.

King Euro isn't chummy with this yet so that's one problem while my home and native Canadian shows this taking off hugely into a hurricane and taking itself into a ridge...unique. The Canadian and NOGAPS solutions are the most interesting for myself and the Atlantic because unrelated to the tropics its shows a very powerful low ejecting out into northern Ontario...ultra severe weather outbreak?

[ROCK]

0z GFS really low lat in the carib.....138hr..opens it up...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[SEASON_CANCELED]

that is really all over

[ROCK]

144hr....we have poofness....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Aric Dunn]

144hr....we have poofness....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

well the gfs has never been a intensity guidance. they have tried to improve on it but way back with dean and felix the gfs showed a 1008/ open wave moving through the carrib even though they were cat 4 and 5's ... what to take out of the gfs is the track and overall development and synoptic patterns. watch the gfdl being its based of the GFS for intensity. as well as the hwrf and other with better resolution.

[ROCK]

the rest of the run buries it into CA.....so not much consensus in the medium range right now with any global....

[abajan]

Those who may wonder if systems have developed in a low latitude position in the ITCZ where 99L is and the answer is yes. A very good example is Hurricane Ivan in 2004. Not that 99L will track the same way,but only showing that development can occur on the position it is at this time.

Hi Cycloneye, thanks for sharing this track history. Though statistics for development at the lower latitudes like mine are low, I always tell folks that it takes just one.... After all, we're just observers. We're definitely not the ones running the TC show.

And who can forget Hurricane Flora in 1963? An infamous low rider. Certainly not Tobagonians!

[ROCK]

like I said in the other thread......99L will be passing over the hottest ssts in the basin over the next few days, has a good shot at developing with no shear in front of it...

[bvigal]

99L is at 8.9N, pretty low. I immediately thought of Ivan, too, except he was well organized way east, what was remarkable was he stayed low.

2004 in my memory, was a low-rider year, when we looked at disturbances and said, it's too far south or, it will turn WNW... by the time Ivan came along, we were believers and I remember being very worried about Ivan way over in E Atlantic
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

charley as invest 11N 60W http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... N-600W.jpg

tropical storm earl as depression 9N -45.6W
as invest, 8.4N 39.9W
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... N-399W.jpg

ivan depression at 9.7N 27.6W on September 2
NRL's earliest picture is 140kt at 84W - all the way in western Carib, but I saved one from Sept 3 when became tropical storm http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/68 ... mocwi.jpg/

But then, in 2005, we had Emily, which tracked due west, very low, here is the tropical storm about to hit TRINIDAD! We all had friends with boats who ran down there to hide out, remembering Ivan, and they had a very rough anchorage!
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc05/A ... N-590W.jpg

With every additional year watching these storms, I'm less likely to say "usually", "not likely" and the word "never" has disappeared from vocabulary about cyclones!

[Hurricane Alexis]

Tropical Cyclones affecting or making landfall in South America and southern Caribbean islands from 1850-present.



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edit by tolakram, fixed image.

[Florida1118]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 310530
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1100 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[ROCK]

0Z EURO loses it once it enters the carib....

0Z CMC still up above the islands and out.

[colbroe]

Looking at the first pictures this morning it looks like 99l is now consolidating heavy thunder showers over the center and is looking like a worthy player.The residents in the islands should take careful note of its progress and the very bad thing about this system is that it is only moving at 9 miles per hour .