ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

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#4881 Postby Dave » Thu Aug 09, 2012 9:14 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 091412
AF302 1205A ERNESTO HDOB 33 20120809
140330 1828N 09329W 8434 01492 0019 +162 +139 155052 053 039 003 00
140400 1827N 09330W 8436 01490 0018 +161 +142 156054 055 040 004 00
140430 1827N 09332W 8421 01496 0018 +149 +143 151056 060 041 003 00
140500 1826N 09333W 8435 01478 0024 +130 +130 135056 061 035 005 01
140530 1825N 09335W 8462 01468 0036 +140 +139 139043 051 042 015 00
140600 1825N 09337W 8423 01503 0025 +150 +136 149047 049 034 006 00
140630 1824N 09338W 8433 01487 0020 +151 +133 150049 051 036 005 00
140700 1824N 09340W 8431 01489 0018 +151 +131 155050 055 036 005 00
140730 1823N 09341W 8429 01482 0013 +146 +130 153053 059 039 006 00
140800 1823N 09343W 8426 01483 0012 +140 +129 146056 061 039 007 00
140830 1822N 09344W 8436 01470 0006 +152 +128 157049 055 037 008 00
140900 1821N 09346W 8425 01487 0006 +154 +128 164050 051 039 007 00
140930 1821N 09347W 8433 01472 9997 +159 +128 161054 058 041 006 00
141000 1820N 09349W 8428 01477 9998 +155 +129 158052 056 040 007 00
141030 1820N 09350W 8430 01470 9994 +155 +129 159054 058 041 007 00
141100 1819N 09352W 8414 01482 0000 +139 +130 156056 062 041 008 00
141130 1819N 09354W 8450 01449 0002 +140 +129 156048 051 045 015 00
141200 1818N 09355W 8431 01462 9995 +141 +129 162046 048 050 018 00
141230 1817N 09357W 8429 01459 9990 +140 +128 164045 047 050 020 00
141300 1817N 09358W 8432 01453 9984 +140 +128 168043 045 051 017 00
$$
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#4882 Postby Dave » Thu Aug 09, 2012 9:15 am

000
URNT12 KNHC 091407
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 09/13:23:00Z
B. 18 deg 17 min N
094 deg 13 min W
C. 850 mb 1351 m
D. 42 kt
E. 311 deg 13 nm
F. 051 deg 44 kt
G. 313 deg 21 nm
H. 992 mb
I. 17 C / 1468 m
J. 20 C / 1423 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C20
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 1205A ERNESTO OB 13
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 64 KT NE QUAD 13:32:30Z
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#4883 Postby Dave » Thu Aug 09, 2012 9:20 am

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#4884 Postby Dave » Thu Aug 09, 2012 9:35 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 091422
AF302 1205A ERNESTO HDOB 34 20120809
141330 1816N 09400W 8425 01454 9975 +147 +127 180033 040 051 015 00
141400 1816N 09401W 8446 01423 9972 +143 +128 175044 051 048 013 00
141430 1816N 09403W 8441 01434 9973 +144 +129 165028 043 047 019 00
141500 1815N 09404W 8432 01442 9964 +151 +129 172019 021 045 016 00
141530 1815N 09406W 8429 01443 9960 +158 +131 141018 020 041 015 00
141600 1814N 09408W 8429 01444 9951 +175 +132 131019 020 034 008 00
141630 1814N 09409W 8428 01442 9947 +178 +134 130014 017 029 007 00
141700 1813N 09411W 8432 01436 9945 +176 +136 126012 013 027 008 00
141730 1813N 09413W 8429 01437 9942 +176 +138 120011 012 024 008 00
141800 1812N 09414W 8430 01434 9938 +181 +140 122008 011 023 006 00
141830 1812N 09416W 8432 01432 9935 +184 +142 112005 005 025 007 00
141900 1811N 09418W 8432 01432 9937 +181 +143 076004 006 024 006 00
141930 1811N 09419W 8429 01436 9936 +187 +145 317004 005 033 001 00
142000 1810N 09421W 8430 01434 9934 +188 +147 318009 010 038 000 03
142030 1811N 09422W 8421 01443 9932 +188 +151 315011 011 024 003 00
142100 1812N 09423W 8432 01431 9926 +196 +154 321012 013 025 002 00
142130 1813N 09425W 8427 01433 9922 +196 +158 343011 013 025 002 00
142200 1813N 09425W 8427 01433 9914 +203 +162 028017 022 018 003 00
142230 1815N 09427W 8430 01427 9912 +213 +167 030025 026 022 002 00
142300 1816N 09428W 8430 01431 9914 +213 +171 040030 031 027 002 00
$$
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#4885 Postby Dave » Thu Aug 09, 2012 9:35 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 091432
AF302 1205A ERNESTO HDOB 35 20120809
142330 1817N 09429W 8429 01438 9927 +201 +175 043031 033 029 002 00
142400 1818N 09430W 8429 01443 9936 +196 +179 040031 033 028 001 00
142430 1820N 09431W 8430 01445 9939 +195 +181 047033 034 031 003 00
142500 1821N 09432W 8433 01445 9944 +194 +182 045032 034 031 004 00
142530 1822N 09434W 8432 01451 9947 +195 +182 043033 034 033 004 00
142600 1823N 09435W 8430 01454 9949 +196 +182 044035 036 036 003 00
142630 1824N 09436W 8425 01464 9955 +192 +181 040035 035 040 002 00
142700 1825N 09437W 8430 01460 9958 +191 +181 038038 040 041 003 00
142730 1826N 09438W 8428 01461 9970 +170 +170 045042 043 041 004 01
142800 1828N 09439W 8422 01473 9977 +170 +170 060043 046 038 006 01
142830 1829N 09441W 8435 01461 9983 +160 +160 061042 044 039 006 01
142900 1830N 09442W 8425 01475 9993 +160 +160 065046 048 036 007 01
142930 1831N 09443W 8433 01473 0000 +150 +150 065049 050 040 007 01
143000 1833N 09444W 8437 01473 0005 +150 +150 070049 050 040 006 01
143030 1834N 09445W 8428 01484 0009 +150 +150 067049 052 038 007 01
143100 1835N 09447W 8427 01486 0007 +156 +149 072051 053 039 006 00
143130 1836N 09448W 8424 01492 0010 +156 +146 070052 054 037 005 00
143200 1838N 09449W 8430 01489 0018 +148 +143 072052 053 036 005 00
143230 1839N 09450W 8425 01498 0015 +160 +141 070050 052 036 005 00
143300 1840N 09452W 8430 01495 0017 +162 +140 069050 050 036 003 00
$$
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Advisories

#4886 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 09, 2012 9:40 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1000 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2012

...ERNESTO HANGING AROUND NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND SOON BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 94.3W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ESE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM
VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AND
DISCONTINUED ALL OTHER COASTAL WACHES AND WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO
IS VERY NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO. AT 1000 AM CDT...1500
UTC...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.3 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO TODAY
AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CENTER
OF ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD
ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...TABASCO...PUEBLA...AND
OAXACA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#4887 Postby Dave » Thu Aug 09, 2012 9:40 am

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#4888 Postby Dave » Thu Aug 09, 2012 9:42 am

000
UZNT13 KNHC 091435
XXAA 59148 99182 70943 04684 99993 26204 25010 00562 ///// /////
92625 22609 25014 85363 19832 30001 88999 77999
31313 09608 81419
61616 AF302 1205A ERNESTO OB 18
62626 EYE SPL 1819N09431W 1421 MBL WND 25514 AEV 20802 DLM WND 25
008 992843 WL150 24512 084 REL 1818N09431W 141920 SPG 1819N09431W
142104 =
XXBB 59148 99182 70943 04684 00993 26204 11950 23204 22889 22827
33850 19832 44843 /////
21212 00993 25010 11957 26015 22929 25016 33915 22508 44896 24503
55854 27001 66843 33502
31313 09608 81419
61616 AF302 1205A ERNESTO OB 18
62626 EYE SPL 1819N09431W 1421 MBL WND 25514 AEV 20802 DLM WND 25
008 992843 WL150 24512 084 REL 1818N09431W 141920 SPG 1819N09431W
142104 =

993 mb/10 kts
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#4889 Postby Dave » Thu Aug 09, 2012 9:42 am

000
URNT12 KNHC 091438
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 09/14:19:00Z
B. 18 deg 12 min N
094 deg 17 min W
C. 850 mb 1364 m
D. 51 kt
E. 074 deg 17 nm
F. 155 deg 62 kt
G. 073 deg 25 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 16 C / 1523 m
J. 19 C / 1434 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 1205A ERNESTO OB 17
MAX FL WIND 64 KT NE QUAD 13:32:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 53 KT NW QUAD 14:31:00Z
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#4890 Postby Dave » Thu Aug 09, 2012 9:45 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 091442
AF302 1205A ERNESTO HDOB 36 20120809
143330 1841N 09453W 8429 01496 0026 +149 +139 067051 052 036 005 00
143400 1843N 09454W 8432 01498 0028 +152 +139 067050 052 034 005 00
143430 1844N 09456W 8426 01505 0024 +163 +138 072048 048 033 004 00
143500 1845N 09457W 8433 01500 0025 +166 +139 073048 049 031 003 00
143530 1846N 09458W 8430 01504 0028 +163 +139 073047 048 032 003 00
143600 1848N 09459W 8429 01505 0030 +158 +141 072046 047 032 002 00
143630 1849N 09501W 8431 01505 0033 +156 +142 073041 045 033 002 00
143700 1850N 09502W 8429 01509 0031 +160 +142 074038 040 033 002 00
143730 1852N 09503W 8428 01510 0031 +164 +142 076037 037 030 004 00
143800 1853N 09504W 8429 01507 0032 +164 +143 074038 039 032 004 00
143830 1854N 09505W 8433 01504 0031 +165 +145 073039 040 032 003 00
143900 1855N 09507W 8429 01510 0031 +164 +147 074039 040 031 004 03
143930 1857N 09508W 8432 01507 0030 +165 +148 073040 041 031 004 00
144000 1858N 09509W 8429 01511 0032 +163 +149 075042 042 030 005 00
144030 1859N 09510W 8432 01509 0035 +160 +150 077041 043 031 007 00
144100 1901N 09512W 8432 01510 0038 +158 +149 079039 040 030 010 00
144130 1902N 09513W 8433 01507 0040 +151 +147 084040 041 034 010 00
144200 1903N 09514W 8428 01512 0043 +148 +145 081041 042 036 013 00
144230 1905N 09515W 8429 01512 0046 +145 +143 080045 047 036 014 00
144300 1906N 09516W 8439 01506 0050 +145 +141 073042 043 044 017 00
$$
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#4891 Postby Dave » Thu Aug 09, 2012 9:48 am

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#4892 Postby Dave » Thu Aug 09, 2012 9:54 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 091452
AF302 1205A ERNESTO HDOB 37 20120809
144330 1907N 09518W 8429 01516 0051 +145 +139 073043 044 039 012 00
144400 1908N 09519W 8439 01509 0054 +148 +138 072040 042 039 011 03
144430 1910N 09518W 8429 01516 0048 +152 +137 077040 045 034 008 03
144500 1910N 09517W 8430 01520 0048 +156 +137 073038 042 035 007 03
144530 1909N 09516W 8428 01520 0036 +172 +138 069044 045 027 005 00
144600 1908N 09515W 8416 01526 0045 +151 +139 067042 046 041 018 03
144630 1907N 09514W 8437 01504 0038 +157 +140 073044 047 042 016 00
144700 1906N 09513W 8412 01532 0038 +159 +141 074040 043 030 010 00
144730 1905N 09512W 8432 01510 0034 +166 +141 077041 042 030 006 00
144800 1904N 09510W 8429 01517 0038 +166 +141 077040 041 032 006 00
144830 1903N 09509W 8429 01515 0038 +165 +142 078037 039 034 006 00
144900 1903N 09508W 8429 01516 0040 +163 +142 079037 038 035 004 03
144930 1902N 09507W 8360 01571 0023 +161 +143 078037 038 034 006 03
145000 1902N 09506W 7996 01948 0010 +145 +143 070036 037 /// /// 03
145030 1903N 09505W 7648 02325 0005 +130 +130 063037 038 /// /// 05
145100 1904N 09503W 7303 02708 //// +112 //// 060036 038 /// /// 05
145130 1905N 09502W 6987 03082 //// +094 //// 067040 041 /// /// 05
145200 1906N 09501W 6677 03456 //// +065 //// 066041 042 /// /// 05
145230 1907N 09500W 6394 03819 //// +057 //// 057043 044 /// /// 05
145300 1908N 09459W 6143 04153 //// +041 //// 053043 045 /// /// 05
$$
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#4893 Postby Dave » Thu Aug 09, 2012 9:58 am

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#4894 Postby Dave » Thu Aug 09, 2012 10:00 am

Still bouncing along the coast....maybe going inland on the 3rd vdm....
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#4895 Postby Dave » Thu Aug 09, 2012 10:06 am

000
URNT15 KNHC 091502
AF302 1205A ERNESTO HDOB 38 20120809
145330 1909N 09458W 5992 04364 //// +016 //// 047039 046 045 018 01
145400 1910N 09456W 5880 04520 //// +004 //// 053037 039 052 028 01
145430 1911N 09455W 5818 04616 //// -004 //// 058040 043 052 027 01
145500 1912N 09454W 5770 04678 //// -008 //// 067038 041 054 028 01
145530 1913N 09452W 5644 04859 //// -015 //// 072044 048 055 025 01
145600 1914N 09451W 5560 04978 //// -008 //// 066042 044 046 011 01
145630 1915N 09450W 5495 05072 0201 -001 //// 064040 041 039 004 01
145700 1916N 09449W 5425 05180 0212 -008 //// 070042 043 041 003 01
145730 1917N 09447W 5344 05293 0214 -010 //// 068041 043 042 004 01
145800 1918N 09446W 5268 05402 0214 -014 //// 064043 043 042 002 01
145830 1920N 09445W 5111 05628 0227 -024 //// 065045 046 041 001 05
145900 1921N 09444W 4944 05916 0260 -040 //// 064045 047 039 002 01
145930 1922N 09442W 4819 06118 0275 -051 //// 065049 049 040 001 01
150000 1923N 09441W 4692 06329 0290 -066 //// 065049 050 041 000 05
150030 1924N 09440W 4531 06602 0316 -082 //// 063051 051 039 002 01
150100 1925N 09439W 4412 06835 0349 -094 //// 067050 051 039 002 01
150130 1926N 09437W 4325 06990 0362 -101 //// 070050 050 039 002 01
150200 1927N 09436W 4248 07125 0368 -109 //// 071050 050 040 001 01
150230 1928N 09435W 4163 07269 0370 -115 //// 073049 049 039 003 01
150300 1929N 09433W 4078 07431 0384 -124 //// 074048 048 041 001 01
$$
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Mission is over....put Ernesto in the recon books.
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#4896 Postby Dave » Thu Aug 09, 2012 10:07 am

A huge thank you to everyone who helped work recon on Ernesto! Good job all around.
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#4897 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 10:09 am

Woo! Another system in the books...and what an, um, interesting one...to say the least!
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#4898 Postby Dave » Thu Aug 09, 2012 10:10 am

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One last look...
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#4899 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 10:11 am

brunota2003 wrote:
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I can't do this...I just can't possibly go the full 30 knot increase that almost always occurs in the 24 hours after the indicator pops up. That's 85 knots from the current intensity! Yikes.

So it appeared around 7 or 8 pm EDT, and going out 6 hours puts a "start time" of around 1 or 2 am EDT. Due to land proximity, I am not going to forecast 85 knots prior to landfall...I will tone it down to 75 knots by the time landfall occurs, instead. This still reaches the 30 knots for RI to occur from the 5/8 pm intensity (45 knots), but is only an increase of 20 knots from the current 11 pm intensity (55 knots). If Ernesto moves further away from the coastline, the full 30 knots could be realized, which would put the secondary peak intensity at at least 85 knots.

EDIT: Before I even post (I'm leaving the above to show my initial thoughts), I'm already editing this, and am just going to go the full 30 knots. 85 knots for the secondary peak. Reasoning: Looking at the latest sat images, there is a cell blowing up north of where I estimate the center...and there is a warm spot forming in the convection. If that is what I think it is, then yeah.

Well...this busted big time. Ernesto decided to jump westward quicker than expected, and go visit the coastline, which really cut him off. Winds did jump from 45 knots at 8 pm to "at least" 60 knots by 2 am. He just couldn't close off his circulation due to land. Thankfully, my forecast was wrong this time.
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Re:

#4900 Postby Dave » Thu Aug 09, 2012 10:12 am

brunota2003 wrote:Woo! Another system in the books...and what an, um, interesting one...to say the least!


Ernesto's eating sand now...but I wonder....
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