ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

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brunota2003
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#4901 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 10:18 am

It will certainly be interesting to watch Ernesto as he crosses over Mexico and heads towards the Pacific. Only a day over land, with both the Atlantic side and Pacific side to pull from, but the land is a lot more rugged than the YP is.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#4902 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 09, 2012 10:24 am

Cyclones rarely landfall on the Tabasco Coast.
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#4903 Postby Dave » Thu Aug 09, 2012 10:24 am

Mexico topography...he's got some mountains to get over now but not as high as the ones to his north...we'll see.

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#4904 Postby Dave » Thu Aug 09, 2012 10:29 am

000
URNT11 KNHC 091525
97779 15234 51205 93300 73200 10032 66673 /5761
RMK AF302 1205A ERNESTO OB 21
SWS = 29 KTS
LAST REPORT
;
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#4905 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 09, 2012 11:16 am

For now its moving over quite flat land but it will hit some harsh ground soon enough. Still the presentation of this system is very good right now, good job it didn't have more space.
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#4906 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 11:19 am

ERNESTO will be remember as system was hard to forecast
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#4907 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 12:34 pm

Question: Now I am sure this has been asked but I have never seen it so I do appoligize. IF Ernesto survives and makes it to the EPAC and reforms stays intact whatever. Does it stay as Ernesto or does it assume an EPAC name? Thank you
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#4908 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 09, 2012 12:36 pm

Another blowup over or near the center.

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#4909 Postby Florida1118 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 12:37 pm

StormingB81 wrote:Question: Now I am sure this has been asked but I have never seen it so I do appoligize. IF Ernesto survives and makes it to the EPAC and reforms stays intact whatever. Does it stay as Ernesto or does it assume an EPAC name? Thank you

He would keep his name, though it has not happened before that I am aware of.
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#4910 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 12:38 pm

Thank you Florida. It would be interesting thats for sure.
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Re: Re:

#4911 Postby Portastorm » Thu Aug 09, 2012 12:38 pm

Florida1118 wrote:
StormingB81 wrote:Question: Now I am sure this has been asked but I have never seen it so I do appoligize. IF Ernesto survives and makes it to the EPAC and reforms stays intact whatever. Does it stay as Ernesto or does it assume an EPAC name? Thank you

He would keep his name, though it has not happened yet before that I am aware of.


We talked about this yesterday some. You're correct (about keeping the name) and the last time it happened was 1996.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#4912 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 09, 2012 12:41 pm

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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Advisories

#4913 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 09, 2012 12:41 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
100 PM CDT THU AUG 09 2012

...TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODING ANTICIPATED AS ERNESTO SKIRTS THE
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR COATZACOALCOS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 94.6W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE ERNESTO HAS BEEN
SKIRTING THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF COATZACOALCOS. AT 100 PM
CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST. ERNESTO HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD NEAR 5
MPH...7 KM/H. A GENERAL SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER
TODAY AND FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER WATER NORTH
OF THE CENTER. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD
ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...TABASCO...PUEBLA...AND
OAXACA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#4914 Postby StormingB81 » Thu Aug 09, 2012 12:42 pm

See Portastorm you (Meaning me) miss a day and you miss alot....lol
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#4915 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Aug 09, 2012 12:54 pm

Ernesto's final (or maybe not final?) burst is occurring in an impressive fashion. Despite being right on Mexico now at the furthest southern point in the BOC, a spinning top motion and new convective burst is occurring like he's strengthening! The upper levels must be perfect for such. If it took Gilbert's or Karl's track it might have gone through RI based on how well its doing now that close to landmass.

With that said, the rainfall and flooding look to be tremendous based on IR. It's in a perfect position and scenario to deliver the maximum amount of rain possible (like Debby only more impressive) on Mexico. It wouldn't surprise me to find the amounts going over 20 to 25 inches in some areas. I didn't hear much about preparations for this so the news could be bad.

The movement and track are also unique because it took a SW dive and maybe Ernesto could do that again. A lot of its southern convection is in the Epac now and wouldn't it be cool if it went due south directly down there.

Yesterday's Posts:

NHC Discussion at 11:00 pm EDT wrote:TECHNICAL ISSUES PREVENTED A RECON FLIGHT FROM INVESTIGATING ERNESTO THIS EVENING.

LOL. Even when recon is needed the most and at the most critical time to sample his peak winds, it fails. A perfect way to top off a pathetic system despite Ernesto becoming a 'cane and having a more impressive appearance in general during the last 48 hours.

NHC Discussion at 5:00 am EDT wrote:HURRICANE ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
400 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE SHOW THAT ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AROUND THE TIME OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL...AN AUTOMATED WEATHER
STATION ON BANCO CHINCHORRO ISLAND JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 979.4 MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO HAS MOVED WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE EYE HAS
BECOME A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT IN RADAR IMAGERY...AND THE LAST COUPLE
OF GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THE CLOUD TOPS WARMING.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 60 KT.

Umm, how can Ernesto still be a hurricane at 60 knots? And then just as I refreshed the page, they corrected it.

NHC Update at 4:00 pm EDT wrote:000
WTNT65 KNHC 081957
TCUAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
300 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

A VERSION OF THE 4 PM CDT TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION FOR TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO WAS INADVERTENTLY SENT EARLY. THE CORRECT VERSION OF
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE RE-TRANSMITTED AT THE USUAL TRANSMISSION TIME.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

LOL. I've never seen this happen but I want to read the advisory. Anyone catch it? Just a yes or no so I don't waste time looking through dozens of pages in this thread...maybe the advisories thread?
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#4916 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 09, 2012 1:46 pm

Eastern Pacific TWO

WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF MEXICO COULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE WEST-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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#4917 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 09, 2012 2:09 pm

I'm seriously hoping Ernesto makes it out alive.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Advisories

#4918 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 09, 2012 4:06 pm

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
400 PM CDT THU AUG 09 2012

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL
ON THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST WEST OF THE CITY OF COATZACOALCOS AROUND
1800 UTC WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. SINCE THEN...
ERNESTO HAS MOVED FARTHER INLAND AND BEGUN TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KNOTS...AND THESE WINDS
ARE PRIMARILY OCCURRING OVER WATER NORTH OF THE CENTER.

SINCE THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND AND INTERACT
WITH HIGH TERRAIN...WEAKENING IS FORECAST. ERNESTO IS LIKELY TO
BECOME A REMANT LOW IN ABOUT A DAY OR TWO...HOWEVER TORRENTIAL
RAINS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER
MUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS.
ERNESTO IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE
AREA...OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS
FLOW PATTERN WILL FORCE ERNESTO ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST
TRACK OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR TWO.

ALTHOUGH ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF
MEXICO...GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD
DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL
REMNANT CIRCULATION IN 3 DAYS OR SO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 18.1N 95.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 10/0600Z 18.0N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/1800Z 17.5N 99.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/0600Z 17.5N 101.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#4919 Postby tolakram » Thu Aug 09, 2012 5:36 pm

Goodnight Ernesto

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#4920 Postby KWT » Thu Aug 09, 2012 5:39 pm

Should be getting pretty close to the rough ground now, thats where we see whether Ernesto can survive or not.
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