WPAC: HAIKUI - Post-Tropical

[dexterlabio]

wow this thing is huge. im assuming that large portion of convection on the SW quadrant is indeed a part of Haikui. Euro depicting this as a large, monstrous system over East China Sea so maybe the nature of its overall circulation is really broad.

[euro6208]

holy! haikui is forecast to rapidly strengthen to near category 4 strength as it stalls near okinawa and it doesn't end there, haikui will surely make landfall somewhere from eastern china to mainland japan...

WTPN33 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 24.8N 138.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.8N 138.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 25.7N 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 26.5N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 27.0N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 27.4N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.0N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.3N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.3N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 25.0N 137.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND
041500Z. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

looks like a very scary scenario for okinawa and japan but very exciting for us, tropical cyclone fanatics...

WDPN33 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (HAIKUI)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM
EAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED, PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE, ALBEIT FRAGMENTED, BANDING
WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE
ANIMATED EIR LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION, BOLSTERED
BY A LOW REFLECTIVITY LLCC FEATURE ON A 031022Z SSMIS-S MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DEDUCTED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS
JUST TO THE WEST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL JUST TO THE WEST IS ENHANCING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS PROMOTING EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. THESE FEATURES ARE READILY APPARENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
SOUTH OF THE STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO
TAU 72, OR TO JUST NORTHWEST OF OKINAWA, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24 AS THE LLCC CONSOLIDATES BUT SHOULD STRENGTHEN
AT A MORE NORMAL PACE AFTERWARD AS VWS REMAINS LIGHT AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IMPROVES AS THE TUTT CELL MOVES FURTHER WEST OF THE SYSTEM,
OPENING UP MORE ROOM FOR VENTILATION.
C. THERE IS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE TRACK AFTER TAU 72 AS A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA,
ERODING THE STEERING RIDGE AND STALLING THE CYCLONE NORTHWEST OF
OKINAWA. CONSEQUENTLY, THE MODEL TRACKERS VARY IN THE TIMING OF AN
EVENTUAL POLEWARD RECURVATURE. REGARDLESS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AT THIS STAGE, REACHING 110 KNOTS BY TAU 120 DUE TO
CONTINUED FAVORABLE VWS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GREATLY
IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO INITIAL EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG
WESTERLIES. THERE IS, HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK
FORECAST DUE TO THE HIGH VARIANCE IN THE MODELS. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

very very impressive vorticity...extremely large haikui...hard to believe that this system will be a monster down the road...

TXPQ27 KNES 031507
TCSWNP

A. 12W (HAIKUI)

B. 03/1432Z

C. 25.1N

D. 138.2E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON .2+ BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.5. MET=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.



CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.0 / 992.0mb/ 30.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.0 2.3 3.4

[euro6208]

direct hit on okinawa

WTPN33 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 24.9N 134.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.9N 134.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 25.8N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 26.6N 128.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 27.0N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.3N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 27.7N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 28.0N 123.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 28.6N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 25.1N 133.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
040000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND
050300Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILT OVER THE CENTER ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A LARGE RIBBON
OF DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR IS CURRENTLY WRAPPING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY HAS INDICATED THE DRY RIBBON IS
BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE
AS WELL. TRACK SPEEDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AS WELL OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS WITH A FLATTENING OF THE TRACK IN THE WESTWARD DIRECTION. THIS
HAS BROUGHT THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKINAWA,
WHICH REPRESENTS A LARGE SHIFT IN TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE TRACK AND SPEED PHILOSOPHY HAS SHIFTED TO A MORE WESTWARD
ORIENTED TRACK WITH SPEEDS IN THE EXTENDED TAUS BEING INCREASED.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAVING LESS IMPACT
ON THE MODIFICATION OF THE STR THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND ALLOWS
THE STR TO REMAIN A STRONGER STEERING INFLUENCE.
B. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH TAU
72 SOUTH OF THE STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS WELL IN LINE
THROUGH TAU 48 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN AND NGPS SHOWING A TURN
TOWARDS JAPAN. ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY HOWEVER
IT APPEARS TO KEEP TRACK SPEEDS MUCH HIGHER THAN THE CONSENSUS. THIS
FORECAST FAVORS THE CONSENSUS TRACK BUT HAS SPEEDS SLIGHTLY FASTER
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOW SPEEDS OF NGPS AND GFDN AND THE QUICKER
SOLUTION OF ECMWF. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY
THROUGH TAU 72 AS THE LLCC REMAINS OVER WARM (>30 DEGREES CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN AN AREA OF DECREASING VWS AND INCREASING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS AND STEADY UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD PROVIDE FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE
FORECAST PEROD. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH
NOGAPS AND GFDN CONTINUING TO TRACK THE SYSTEM TOWARDS JAPAN, AND
JGSM, EGRR, AND ECMWF SHOWING WESTERLY MOTION AND LANDFALL IN CHINA.
THIS MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS, FAVORING A FASTER
WESTERLY TRACK. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AS THE DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM AS THE
LLCC HAS BEEN PARTIALLY EXPOSED IN BOTH MSI AND INFRARED IMAGERY FOR
THE PAST 12 HOURS.//
NNNN

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.6 / 989.1mb/ 26.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.6 2.0 2.8

[Meow]

direct hit on okinawa

Please upload the image instead of linking it from the JTWC in the future.

I worry about Zhejiang more.

[Meow]

40 knots (JMA)



TS 1211 (HAIKUI)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 4 August 2012

<Analyses at 04/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N25°20'(25.3°)
E133°00'(133.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N600km(325NM)
S330km(180NM)

<Estimate for 04/07 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N25°25'(25.4°)
E132°40'(132.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N600km(325NM)
S330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 04/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°20'(26.3°)
E129°35'(129.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 05/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°55'(26.9°)
E127°00'(127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 06/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°30'(27.5°)
E124°10'(124.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 07/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°00'(28.0°)
E122°00'(122.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

[mrbagyo]

exposed

[RobWESTPACWX]

Good evening everyone! Hope your enjoying your saturday, to bad no fire works for anyone in Okinawa on your summer holiday today.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vSME5iCnEvA[/youtube]

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 26.2N 131.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2N 131.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 27.1N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 27.6N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.9N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.2N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.5N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 28.8N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 29.3N 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 26.4N 130.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND
051500Z.//
NNNN





WDPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI) WARNING
NR 08//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS RE-BUILDING CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
MENTIONED IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON 45 KNOT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 12W IS POSITIONED WELL SOUTH OF THE DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY ITS
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOW TS 12W COCOONING ITSELF WITHIN THE MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH THE PREVIOUSLY NOTED DRY SLOT BEGINNING TO
THIN. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) SEEMS TO HAVE SLACKENED A BIT TO 05-
10 KNOTS, PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR THE RECENT CENTRAL FLARE.
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS MINIMAL AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS
MARGINAL.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 SOUTH OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY UNDER WEAK VWS AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TO A PEAK OF 85 KNOTS AT TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN
WELL GROUPED OUT TO TAU 36 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN AND WBAR,
WHICH TRACK THE LLCC MORE POLEWARD. THIS SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY DUE
TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TROPOSPHERE IN THE
040000Z NAZE (28.39N 129.55E) SOUNDING AND THE 041200Z KAGOSHIMA
(31.55N 130.55E) SOUNDING. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST UP TO TAU 36.
C. BY TAU 96, TS 12W SHOULD BE JUST OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN
CHINA AND MAKE LANDFALL AS A SIGNIFICANT TYPHOON. DISSIPATION
OVERLAND WILL COMMENCE BY TAU 120 DUE TO FRICTIONAL DRAG. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS GREATLY VARIED BOTH IN TRACK SPEED AND LOCATION DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO THE POLEWARD TRACKS OF NOGAPS AND WBAR. ECMWF AND
EGRR REMAIN STABLE WITH A WESTWARD TRACK BUT TRACK SPEEDS ARE MUCH
FASTER THAN ALL OTHER OBJECTIVE AIDS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BUILD UPON PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND IS FASTER THAN THE
MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE POLEWARD OUTLIERS BUT NOT AS FAST AS
ECMWF AND EGRR DUE TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME. A RELATIVELY SHALLOW MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
WILL INTERACT WITH THE STEERING STR OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS
BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAGNITUDE OF INTERACTION IS UNCLEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER SHALLOW MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL AGAIN
INTERACT WITH THE STR BY THE FOUR TO FIVE MARK, BUT DEPICTION OF
THIS INTERACTION VARIES AMONGST THE MODELS. DUE TO THE HIGH LEVEL
OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

getting better organized

[euro6208]

passing very close to okinawa....the weather over there must be deteriorating...

WTPN33 PGTW 050300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 26.8N 129.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.8N 129.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 27.3N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.6N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 27.8N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 28.0N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 28.4N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 29.1N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 30.0N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 26.9N 128.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
13W (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED GEOGRAPHICAL REFERENCE
AND PAST 6 HOUR MOVEMENT.//
NNNN



WDPN33 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS PERSISTENT CENTRALIZE
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
PREDOMINANTLY THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THE RADAR DEPICTION FROM OKINAWA SHOWS A MULTITUDE OF
BANDS CROSSING OVER OKINAWA AND INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 12W IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS TRACKING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONTINUE TO INDICATE TS 12W IS PARTIALLY ENCAPSULATED BY A WEAKENING
RIBBON OF DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES.
ADDITIONALLY, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS LOW (05 TO 10
KNOTS). THE OUTFLOW REMAINS MARGINAL OVER THE ENTIRE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72.
INTENSIFICATION WILL REMAIN SLOW AND STEADY UNDER WEAK VWS AND WARM
(28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72,
WITH NGPS, WBAR, AND GFDN SHOWING A TRACK INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA BY
TAU 72. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU
72.
C. TS 12W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A SIGNIFICANT TYPHOON
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72. DISSIPATION WILL BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72 AS
FRICTIONAL DRAG INCREASES. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IMPROVING,
HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE SPREAD AFTER TAU 72. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NGPS, WBAR AND GFDN DISCUSSED EARLIER, THE REMAINDER OF
THE GUIDANCE KEEPS TS 12W OVER LAND. A RELATIVELY SHALLOW MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE STEERING STR OVER THE NEXT
TWO TO THREE DAYS BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAGNITUDE OF INTERACTION
REMAINS UNCLEAR. ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER SHALLOW MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
WILL AGAIN INTERACT WITH THE STR BY THE FOUR TO FIVE DAY MARK, WHICH
IS DEPICTED WITHIN THE FORECAST BY THE SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT
TAU 120. DUE TO THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY, CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST IS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[RobWESTPACWX]

JTWCs long range is pretty realistic as they state basically we just don't know whats going to happen. I found that refreshing in there honesty.

Heres my latest video as well.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xuYatjkTP_Q[/youtube]

[euro6208]

crazy...hong kong, taipei, beijing and many more major cities threatened during the last 2 weeks and now shanghai and the surrounding areas?

[euro6208]

rainbands hitting okinawa...

[phwxenthusiast]

here's the latest GEFS from RUC NOAA... still big spread but more members are leaning towards an East China landfall...



here's MMEP compiled by KMA... big spread here as well although NOGAPS now is the outlier among the global models...

[somethingfunny]

Haikui is wrapping up nicely. And such a sssllllllooooooooooowwwwww mover...Okinawa could be in for a ton of rain.



I like your storms better over here! I'm tired of tearing my hair out over Ernesto.

By the way, what does the name "Haikui" mean?

[phwxenthusiast]

haha, yeah the WPAC sure knows how to churn out strong storms... but Atlantic isn't too shabby either--it's still August 5 after all...

"Haikui" according to HKO is a Chinese word for a type of Sea Anemone...