ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical

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ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 03, 2012 5:29 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208030916
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2012, DB, O, 2012080306, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902012
AL, 90, 2012080306, , BEST, 0, 124N, 239W, 25, 0, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area of interest.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113187&hilit=&p=2243446#p2243446
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L

#2 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Fri Aug 03, 2012 5:46 am

Have any of the tropical models ran on it?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L

#3 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 03, 2012 5:50 am

Hurricane Alexis wrote:Have any of the tropical models ran on it?


Not yet. After 8 AM EDT the first model plots will come out.
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#4 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:07 am

For me, this is the most impressive Low pressure to move off the African coast thus far. This system is looking well developed and it is just a matter of time that this will be a named storm.

Image



Already initialized as 1009 mb on the surface analysis.
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:13 am

Impressive to say the least.Here is loop.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/satellit ... s_loop.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L

#6 Postby Fego » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:17 am

Image

Lets see if the next TWO shows a wnw movement like the 2:00 am outlook or if it changed to a west motion.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L

#7 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:23 am

06z GFS sends a big storm just north of the islands, not sure if that storm is 90L.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L

#8 Postby Fego » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:27 am

cycloneye wrote:Impressive to say the least.Here is loop.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/satellit ... s_loop.gif
Impressive indeed and with something like an "eye" , making clear that only a hurricane develops an eye.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L

#9 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:40 am

Rain-rate very near or at Hot-Tower levels.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc12/A ... W.55pc.jpg
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L

#10 Postby Fego » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:54 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED 40 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LUCIA.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L (30%)

#11 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 03, 2012 7:08 am

From 8 AM discussion.

SPECIAL FEATURE

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 152 NM
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE
03/0600 UTC ANALYSIS. THE WAVE IS ALONG 14N23W TO A 1009 MB LOW
NEAR 11N24W. WAVE IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 24W-29W WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE FROM 15N23W TO 11N23W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 9 TO 13 KNOTS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L (30%)

#12 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 03, 2012 7:27 am

12z Best Track

AL, 90, 2012080312, , BEST, 0, 123N, 245W, 30, 1006, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
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#13 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 03, 2012 7:40 am

Very nice. quite impressive. unless convection completely collapses... its well on its way to becoming a TD in the next 24 hours or so.
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ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#14 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 03, 2012 7:42 am

WHXX01 KWBC 031227
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1227 UTC FRI AUG 3 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120803 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120803 1200 120804 0000 120804 1200 120805 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 24.5W 13.3N 27.2W 13.8N 30.2W 14.1N 32.9W
BAMD 12.3N 24.5W 13.0N 26.9W 13.9N 29.2W 14.6N 31.3W
BAMM 12.3N 24.5W 13.2N 26.8W 14.0N 29.2W 14.6N 31.3W
LBAR 12.3N 24.5W 13.1N 27.6W 14.1N 30.9W 15.1N 34.0W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 38KTS 44KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 38KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120805 1200 120806 1200 120807 1200 120808 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 35.2W 13.4N 38.3W 14.6N 42.7W 17.4N 49.9W
BAMD 15.1N 33.3W 15.9N 37.5W 17.5N 43.1W 20.3N 48.7W
BAMM 14.9N 33.4W 15.4N 37.8W 16.7N 43.7W 19.1N 50.3W
LBAR 16.0N 36.8W 17.3N 41.9W 18.5N 46.5W 17.1N 50.7W
SHIP 47KTS 52KTS 54KTS 55KTS
DSHP 47KTS 52KTS 54KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 24.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 12.0N LONM12 = 21.7W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 17.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L

#15 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:31 am

Is there any model support for this system?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L

#16 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:39 am

From the time this wave moved off the African coast, I knew it would form into at least an invest. What separated this wave from all the rest last month, was that it was very compact and well-defined with lots of convection in all its quadrants.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L

#17 Postby adam0983 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:52 am

How long until Invest 90L makes it to the Islands. If it does at all.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L

#18 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 9:21 am

adam0983 wrote:How long until Invest 90L makes it to the Islands. If it does at all.


I would say a minimum of 7-8 days.

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#19 Postby Gustywind » Fri Aug 03, 2012 9:55 am

03/1145 UTC 12.5N 24.5W T1.0/1.0 90L --
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L

#20 Postby AdvAutoBob » Fri Aug 03, 2012 11:01 am

Looks like the lull is over and the CV wave train is finally in gear...
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